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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Itssoeasy

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden wins you'll not see a republican president for the next 16 years. Biden won't last 8 years though, he'll have to step down in 2 probably, if he lasts two.
What happens in that scenario

I agree with the 16 years and that Biden may be a one term president but I see no reason(legitimate reason and not the trump spin) that joe Biden is not capable of serving one term at least.

Well in what I believe is a very unlikely scenario, what would happen is what LBJ and Gerald Ford did when the presidents they served could no longer carry out the duties of the office for very different reasons. The Vice President would assume the presidency under the 25 th amendment.

[Deleted User]

breezy1985 wrote: »

Easiest fix would be to give candidates 50% of a states EC votes if he gets 50% of the states popular vote and so on

Would still favour the minority party though. And if a state has 4 EC votes and finishes 50.1-49.9 do the votes get split 3-1?

The Iron Giant

Biden takes Maine

L1011

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden wins you'll not see a republican president for the next 16 years. Biden won't last 8 years though, he'll have to step down in 2 probably, if he lasts two.
What happens in that scenario

If he steps down in the first half of his term - Kamala takes over and is considered to have served the term, so can serve one more term if re-elected

If he steps down in the second half of his term - Kamala takes over and is not considered to have served the term, so can server two more terms if re-elected.

CruelSummer

Just checked on the latest numbers, am I right in saying that there’s less that 350 votes in the difference in Georgia?

breezy1985

Chips Lovell wrote: »

I understand the logic of it, as a federal state it's designed to allow states vote for the president rather than individuals.

It would be interesting to see the impact of a change to a popular vote. Because right now, there's a lot of states that are solidly in one camp or another, meaning there's a fair contingent of voters who may not bother voting, since they believe their vote may not make any difference.

London was the same when I lived there. I only ever lived in areas that were nailed on Labour. Always went and voted anyway but knew my side had already won before hand

Quin_Dub

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Biden wins you'll not see a republican president for the next 16 years. Biden won't last 8 years though, he'll have to step down in 2 probably, if he lasts two.
What happens in that scenario

Not with a GOP Controlled Senate - If Biden wins, his ability to deliver any kind of structural change will be utterly hamstrung by McConnell.

salmocab

breezy1985 wrote: »

Easiest fix would be to give candidates 50% of a states EC votes if he gets 50% of the states popular vote and so on

I believe there is a movement by several states to give their EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. Obviously it would take most to sign up and is unlikely to happen but it would circumvent the EC if all states signed up.

AbusesToilets

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

The more I think about it the more undemocratic and suppressive a practice it seems to be. Americans are voting as one nation to fill the role of head of state. I could accept an electoral college for something like the House of Representatives to balance out the disparity between states but all it does here is to diminish the voices of some Americans based on where they live.

The system would be more representative if the EC votes were awarded proportionate to the votes in each state. That alone would give a more accurate reflection of voter sentiment, and would also encourage candidates to compete in states where they might not be able to win outright.

breezy1985

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Would still favour the minority party though. And if a state has 4 EC votes and finishes 50.1-49.9 do the votes get split 3-1?

Not perfect but it's an easy quick fix. Much better would be one man one vote but it's never gonna happen

Quin_Dub

CruelSummer wrote: »

Just checked on the latest numbers, am I right in saying that there’s less that 350 votes in the difference in Georgia?

No.

It's 100,344..Missing a digit there!! :-)

Biden 2,283,070
Trump 2,383,414

Manic Moran

salmocab wrote: »

I believe there is a movement by several states to give their EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. Obviously it would take most to sign up and is unlikely to happen but it would circumvent the EC if all states signed up.

I don't believe any swing states have signed on for this. Only the ones which tend to vote with the popular vote in the first place. Given the natures of the states which have signed on to the compact, the chances are that they will have all voted for the popular vote winner anyway, given that it seems that's more likely than not to be a Democrat.

There is no benefit to a swing state to sign on to the compact.

sheeplover55

Can we admit polls were badly wrong again? NYT Reuters etc last pre election polls had Biden +10 and +11 in states like Wisconsin. The congressional race polling was even worse

https://twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1324034971699466240

Blowfish

breezy1985 wrote: »

Easiest fix would be to give candidates 50% of a states EC votes if he gets 50% of the states popular vote and so on

Multiply the EC votes by 100 in each state before you do that would make sense, i.e. a minimum of 300 EC votes rather than 3 per state. Without multiplying, in the smallest states it would take a minimum of 17.6% to get an EC vote, with multiplying, it would only take 0.176%. That'd not only make it much closer to the actual proportional rate, but you'd also start seeing third parties picking up EC votes which would massively increase their visibility and (albiet slowly) erode the 2 party duopoloy.

VinLieger

salmocab wrote: »

I believe there is a movement by several states to give their EC votes to the winner of the popular vote. Obviously it would take most to sign up and is unlikely to happen but it would circumvent the EC if all states signed up.

They actually only need enough states to sign up that equals to 270 in the Electoral College. Once they get that it nullfies the EC and it becomes a popular vote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact

paul71

CruelSummer wrote: »

Just checked on the latest numbers, am I right in saying that there’s less that 350 votes in the difference in Georgia?

I did a breakdown of Georgia just now.
I broke it down by county and worked out the remaining uncounted votes.
Then allocated those votes by the percentage mix on votes already cast in each county.

I have Biden by about 20,000 votes, in Georgia.
I did the same in North Carolina and Trump gets North Carolina.

Graham

Quin_Dub wrote: »

No.

It's 100,344..Missing a digit there!! :-)

Biden 2,283,070
Trump 2,383,414

Most recent:

Biden closing the gap

Trump 2,387,671
Biden 2,300,063

87,608

State Secretary of Georgia announced around 200,000 outstanding mostly from the larger population centres

[Deleted User]

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Can we admit polls were badly wrong again? NYT Reuters etc last pre election polls had Biden +10 and +11 in states like Wisconsin. The congressional race polling was even worse

https://twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1324034971699466240

I've yet to see many defending the polls. They might end up calling the states just about right but they obviously haven't figured out how to sample properly.

Big Pussy Bonpensiero

sheeplover55 wrote: »

Can we admit polls were badly wrong again? NYT Reuters etc last pre election polls had Biden +10 and +11 in states like Wisconsin. The congressional race polling was even worse

https://twitter.com/rkylesmith/status/1324034971699466240

What is the main reason for this can anyone explain? I've read that the polls were adjusted to reflect the mistakes of 4 years ago and as such were supposed to be more accurate. Yet again they were wildly wrong.

I'm thinking a part of the reason is that people don't like admitting they're voting for Trump, but would these polls not be conducted in private?

Timberrrrrrrr

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

Christy42

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

I thought he believed the US should get the results in as quickly as possible to know the winner ASAP. Could this not delay it?

Tell me Trump isn't a hypocrite.

Movementarian

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

Shelga

Why do we always have to do soul-searching after this rubbish?

Is it not possible that some people are just horrible underneath, and now revel in the fact that they have a candidate who allows them to express their true selves?

It's happened many times in the past.

TomOnBoard

Rjd2 wrote: »

One small thing for both sides, they need to be better with spending their money on viral candidates .,,,examples?

Amy Mc Grath and James Harrison in the senate, while the GOP base yet again looks like have splashed to much money on hopeless candidates who have some viral fame.

The spend on Harrison clearly shows that money doesn't always talk! Such a pity! I was really looking forward to a Graham-free Senate!

I don't think Mc Grath ever really had much of a hope in KY.

astrofool

Movementarian wrote: »

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

It feels like they're just looking to stall things as long as possible in the hope that something will happen, it's hard to see him conceding no matter what happens with the vote.

Itssoeasy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump demands recount in Wisconsin even before the count is finished.

So if Trump is calling for a recount in Wisconsin can Hillary Clinton ask for one for 2016 ? I’m joking obviously but it highlights the ridiculousness of trumps demand.

10000maniacs

Trump whinging about Wisconsin. Ordering a recount.

Faugheen

I find it funny that he now doesn’t want all counting to stop.

Timberrrrrrrr

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So if Trump is calling for a recount in Wisconsin can Hillary Clinton ask for one for 2016 ? I’m joking obviously but it highlights the ridiculousness of trumps demand.

With the news of missing ballots in FL are true then Biden should demand a recount there.

rossie1977

Movementarian wrote: »

At this stage what are people thinking for the last few results?

Its odd that the republicans seem to think they are still the Arizona race...do theh know something the numbers aren't showing?

If Trump gets Arizona, Georgia and NC he only needs PA?

I'm still nervous on this....that he will sneak this yet....

AP called Arizona hours ago.

Georgia will go to Biden too by a hair