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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Retr0gamer

Kur4mA wrote: »

Arizona is only 84% of votes counted (according to The Associated Press) or 86% according to NBC. It's not in the bag yet for Biden.

It kind of is though, the vast majority of those votes are coming from Tuscon and Pheonix which are skewed blue.

Canice Picklington

seamus wrote: »

PA could become the kingmaker here.

Nevada is very tight. If it was to swing back to Trump, PA stayed with Trump and no other states flipped, then Trump has it.

The confidence of Biden's team (and noise from Trump's) suggests that their accountants don't see Nevada going with Trump.

I can't see why the large outstanding mail in vote from Clark and Washoe counties would do anything other than break heavily for Biden.

Faugheen

Graham wrote: »

Both vote by mail and Atlanta typically lean democrat so it's not an unreasonable call.

What? I think you’re agreeing with me here...

seamus

bennyl10 wrote: »

it is
based on where the votes are left, huge dem numbers left and mail in voters

Yeah, just looking at that. Virtually all of the votes left to count in Nevada are in places that favour Biden.

Infini

seamus wrote: »

PA could become the kingmaker here.

Nevada is very tight. If it was to swing back to Trump, PA stayed with Trump and no other states flipped, then Trump has it.

The confidence of Biden's team (and noise from Trump's) suggests that their accountants don't see Nevada going with Trump.

Not 100% but Nevadas remaining votes are from the Vegas Region if im not mistaken and mail votes, that would solidify Bidens lead would it not?

rameire

Based on the finer details within Arizona I dont believe the 99% is correct.
I believe it is in the 86%.

for example for Maricopa County it is saying 86% counted.
that leaves 262960 votes to be counted in that county alone.

VinLieger

Kur4mA wrote: »

Arizona is only 84% of votes counted (according to The Associated Press) or 86% according to NBC. It's not in the bag yet for Biden.

Fox have called it for Biden and everyone im looking at has it at 99%, there's definitely some confusion here and id like to know whats happening

Graham

Faugheen wrote: »

Nearly everything left is vote-by-mail.

There is simply no way you can make that call. Nearly everything left in Georgia is in Atlanta.

Both vote by mail and Atlanta typically lean democrat so it's not an unreasonable call.

Added, ignore me, I re-read the post you were responding to.

OneColdHand

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Google's trackers has Biden on 238, if I am corre t those first three states would land him on exactly 270 meaning none of the others would be needed.

Yes that's right.

murpho999

I think Biden's going to take Pensylvannia too.

bennyl10

Kur4mA wrote: »

Arizona is only 84% of votes counted (according to The Associated Press) or 86% according to NBC. It's not in the bag yet for Biden.

it is
based on where the votes are left, huge dem numbers left and mail in voters

dark crystal

Governor of Pennsylvania making a speech right now affirming that every vote will be counted and they will strongly resist any outside influences which attempt to delegitimize the democratic process.

Very strong statement from him.

seamus

PA could become the kingmaker here.

Nevada is very tight. If it was to swing back to Trump, PA stayed with Trump and no other states flipped, then Trump has it.

The confidence of Biden's team (and noise from Trump's) suggests that their accountants don't see Nevada going with Trump.

Kur4mA

Arizona is only 84% of votes counted (according to The Associated Press) or 86% according to NBC. It's not in the bag yet for Biden.

Carfacemandog

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Biden's team optimistic.

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1324009424923611136

Google's trackers has Biden on 238, if I am corre t those first three states would land him on exactly 270 meaning none of the others would be needed.

Inquitus

270-268 seems the likeliest outcome in favour of Biden, assumes MI, WI, AZ, NV got to Biden, that Trump wins Nebraska 4-1 and Biden wins Maine 3-1, and also Trump holds PA.

Mr.Nice Guy

Biden's team optimistic.

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1324009424923611136

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Not that it's looking like a possible scenario right now , but if that were the case who has the casting vote?

I'd guess the leader of the House (Pelosi in this case ) but given how arcane and convoluted the US system seems to be , who knows?

Why would there be a casting vote if one candidate has more electoral college votes from their 25 states?

letowski

Folks, I agree with Donald Trump, all counting must stop now, we are well beyond election day.

.. because as things stand Biden wins!

bennyl10

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1324006396397002752

What if this all boils down to Nevada?

Shouldn't have a hope in Nevada based on whats left to be counted and mail in

they needed MI and WN and now are panicking

seamus

Really hard to keep track of counts when different media report different numbers. I'm going with the Reuters one that RTE is using.

Looks like there's about 270,000 votes to be counted from Detroit still, and Biden is winning 2:1 there, which gives him a 90,000 vote lead out of Detroit alone.

With 230,000 other votes still to be counted from the rest of Michigan, Trump would have to win at least 3:1 out of these in order to turn MI around.

Back of napkin calculations, but says to me that it's in the bag.

Suggestions that Trump thinks Az is still available, but Biden is 100,000 votes ahead with less than 100,000 votes to count. So that's a definite.

extra gravy

jasonb wrote: »

I imagine he knows exactly how it works, he just wants to preach the conspiracy theory to his followers...

And as you can see here, they will lap it up. This was the plan all along.

droidus

AZ has been called for Biden. Id be very surprised if trump takes Nevada.

Brussels Sprout

Hmm it seems that AZ hasn't been called. That also complicates matters

VinLieger

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1324006396397002752

What if this all boils down to Nevada?

They are deluded Arizona is 99% reported and Biden leads by 100k, also Nevadas postal votes that are left are all clark county which is at 84% and if it stays at its current percentage for Biden will outweigh any gains he makes elsewhere in the state.

Movementarian

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1324006396397002752

What if this all boils down to Nevada?

It doesnt look like arizona is in play for Trump at all, 538 are showing it 99% counted and Biden ahead by 3.4 points

murpho999

J2CVC wrote: »

Man you're way out on this. Bookmakers follow the exchanges. They're all the same. If they're not people can hedge bets and guarantee a profit. Believe me the betting market is the best indicator you will find.

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Looks like Trump has awoken from his slumber.

This is embarrassing.

Somebody should tell him it's called waiting to count all the votes. Simple.

jasonb

If my maths are right, Biden has pulled back 100k in Pennslyvania in the last couple of hours. Still 500k behind though.

It's looking positive for Biden, but until AP calls Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada (tomorrow at the earliest) or he gets Georgia or NC or Pennsylvania, it's not done yet...

Brussels Sprout

Shelga wrote: »

If Biden wins WI, MI and NV he's on 270 right?

But if he loses any one of those, and Trump wins PA, GA and NC, Trump wins the election?

It still seems all to play for?

Those are the permutations alright. WI & MI seem very positive for Biden now. NV is probably the dodgiest of them. The thing is that Biden has a very good shout in PA and also GA is very close so he has a lot of different paths to victory.

Nody

AMKC wrote: »

How is that negative energy? That is positive energy. Trump and his ilk are negative energy.
I would say it will really depend on how the Biden presidency goes and who will be the candidates in 2024 as to what electoral turnout will be like then.

Voting to get rid of Trump is not voting on Biden because you like his policies. Obama did not drive voters out in great numbers because getting rid of the republican but because he drove hope in the voting process. Now if we compare the two I agree Trump and Trump's time in power has been far more negative driven but if you had replaced Trump with Bush clone 2.0 for the four years instead do you think the number of voters would been even close to this?