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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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josip

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I've only two daughters and constantly call them the wrong names...

I get my son and the dog's names mixed up

kilns

Its as good as over now and Biden will win by taking Wi, MI, NV, GE and eventually Pennsylvania

Trump will do what he has always done throughout his life and try sue but it will amount to nothing

The news networks will miss him as he gave them endless hours of talking points but the world is a better place now

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323994123246948352

Very encouraging.

BorneTobyWilde

Incredible if Biden doesn't need PA, NC AND GA

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Using the poll closing times, current polling data and the likelihood of states counting their votes on the night I have generated a simplified, logical flow diagram of the various permutations that I could see happening tomorrow night/Wednesday morning:

Looks like we took the vertical path straight downwards this morning

errlloyd

Did a little excel.

To win Georgia Biden needs 62.6% of whats left
To win Penn he needs 67.3
To win Michigan he needs 48.9

He looks likely to get all three right now.

ShatterAlan

kilns wrote: »

Its as good as over now and Biden will win by taking Wi, MI, NV, GE and eventually Pennsylvania

Trump will do what he has always done throughout his life and try sue but it will amount to nothing

The news networks will miss him as he gave them endless hours of talking points but the world is a better place now

So you think that Biden will rejoin the Paris Climate accord, reinstate the Iran Nuclear Deal, move the Embassy back to Tel Aviv, end the trade war with China, butt out of Venezuela and Hong Kong, get the hell out of Afghanistan and Iraq?

Yah!

Quin_Dub

awec wrote: »

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

No.. Not exactly.

The House vote in that scenario is on a State by State basis not a simple majority.

So for example , the Democrats have more seats in California than the Republicans so the Democrats get to submit the California vote etc.

In the current House , the GOP lead 26-24 on a State by State basis because of the lots of small States that they have the lead in - Montana for example has a single House seat - Liz Chaney, so her single seat is worth exactly the same as the dozens in California for that potential vote.

The vote would be made by the newly elected House though , so that 26-24 might change once all the seats are filled.

The way things are shaking out now though , that scenario looks highly unlikely at this stage.

Dillonb3

A bit under the radar but a Justice Democrat, Cori Bush, is after been elected to congress. She's the first black congresswoman from Missouri

Faugheen

The Trump supporters have been fairly quiet for the last couple of hours, haven’t they?

Headshot

Hurrache wrote: »

The thread in Current Affairs was much worse, it was like a Paddy Power forum between all the odds and gambling talk (one guy who bet >€100 on Biden said he'd be happy to lose his bet just to see the liberals getting upset) and just outright trolling (which is still going on).

The modding in this forum is superb in general, the mods are doing a great job managing the trump threads

pixelburp

I unsubscribed from this thread across the night cos I knew full well it'd be swamped with disingenuous trolls and those most excited by the tedious "owning the libs" narrative. Glad / disappointed to see I was right and was exactly the trash fire I thought it would be - coupled with the equally tedious blather over the betting markets. As with the myth that business people make good politicians, so it goes the grip on the belief betting markets possess stronger indicators of the future.

Props to the moderators for keeping the thread vaguely on track and in good faith.

So looks like this wasn't the democrat blow out many had speculated, but I'm more disappointed to see the Senate will remain in O'Connells hands; it's going to make a lot of trouble for Biden to get any key bills across the line. One would wonder if the tactic now is to somehow bring the more centrist republicans over.

If the Biden Presidency (getting ahead of myself of course) truly is about reaching across the aisle and "healing", then it'll be in the senate that strategy will be most vital for this not to be a lame duck administration.

UpBack1234

Faugheen wrote: »

The Trump supporters have been fairly quiet for the last couple of hours, haven’t they?

Dems aren't the only ones guilty of living in a bubble. The MAGAs have been tweeting about a Trump landslide for weeks and they're as stunned as we are that anyone could possibly vote for one of their arch-enemy Obama's men.

MJohnston

awec wrote: »

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

This wouldn’t be true, as it’s not a vote of the House reps — instead each *state* gets one vote to break that tie. That would go Trump’s way as the GOP easily holds the plurality of number of won states, thanks to all those empty rural states.

jasonb

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

nc6000

MJohnston wrote: »

This wouldn’t be true, as it’s not a vote of the House reps — instead each *state* gets one vote to break that tie. That would go Trump’s way as the GOP easily holds the plurality of number of won states, thanks to all those empty rural states.

It looks likely they will win about 25 states each.

Inquitus

jasonb wrote: »

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

All the vote left to be counted favour Biden, he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, its just a question of if he can close the gap in PA which he can get away with losing now, potentially.

Retr0gamer

jasonb wrote: »

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

9k now. But with the detroit votes I don't see it turning red.

Nody

Well for nothing else this is honestly amazing:
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323897443398942726

I'm very curious what the numbers will look like in 2024 and if the negative energy (get rid of Trump at all costs / stick it to the liberals) will still drive people to vote.

Canice Picklington

Faugheen wrote: »

The Trump supporters have been fairly quiet for the last couple of hours, haven’t they?

I'd say a lot of them are furiously deleting a lot of posts

The Raging Bile Duct

Inquitus wrote: »

All the vote left to be counted favour Trump, he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, its just a question of if he ca close the gap in PA which he can get away with losing now, potentially.

I presume you mean Biden here.

Faugheen

Inquitus wrote: »

All the vote left to be counted favour Trump, he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, its just a question of if he ca close the gap in PA which he can get away with losing now, potentially.

What are you talking about?

A large chunk of the remaining votes in Michigan are mail-ins from Wayne County, which is a Democratic stronghold.

Inquitus

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I presume you mean Biden here.

Aye, been a long night!

deathbomber

Inquitus wrote: »

All the vote left to be counted favour Trump, he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, its just a question of if he ca close the gap in PA which he can get away with losing now, potentially.

any chance of tonights lotto numbers mate?

dixiefly

Hopefully Trump will have time to think long and hard about his own behaviour toward people like John McCain.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/trumps-reaction-to-mccain-as-microcosm/568696/

You can tell a lot about a person, and a presidential administration, by the way they handle small, symbolic things. The White House’s handling of the American flag in the aftermath of Senator John McCain’s death is providing a good test of the Trump team.

The episode has managed to combine most of the worst aspects of Donald Trump’s presidency: pettiness as a major motivating force for administration policy, a preference for sowing division over unity, disdain for tradition and norms, chaotic decision making, and an ultimate tendency to surrender.

As my colleague Russell Berman has written, McCain and Trump had a contentious relationship, and that spilled into the president’s reaction to the Arizona senator’s death. After McCain, a fellow Republican, died on Saturday, the president tweeted a terse condolence to his family, with nothing about the man himself. The Washington Post then reported that Trump had nixed an official White House statement about McCain.

The Trump-McCain feud never ended.

On Monday, matters reached peak pettiness, as the White House raised its American flag to full-staff, while other flags around Washington remained at half-staff. This follows strict protocol—which mandates the flag be lowered the day of a senator’s death and the day after—but was widely viewed as a snub, since a president can, and often does, override rules in moments like this. During a brief White House appearance, Trump folded his arms, glowered, and remained silent as reporters asked him about McCain.

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Finally, late Monday afternoon, the White House’s flag was lowered back to half-staff. Trump also issued a proclamation calling for flags to remain lowered until the day McCain is buried. He said in a statement that he had asked Vice President Mike Pence to speak at a Capitol ceremony honoring McCain, and would dispatch his chief of staff, John Kelly; defense secretary, James Mattis; and national-security adviser, John Bolton, to attend McCain’s funeral at the Washington National Cathedral. (Left unsaid was the fact that the president was conspicuously not invited to the funeral.)

Yet even there, Trump couldn’t resist a dig at McCain. His statement began, “Despite our differences on policy and politics, I respect Senator John McCain’s service to our country.” This kind of thing is so typical for Trump that it’s becoming difficult to remember that such injections of raw partisanship into solemn occasions used to be unthinkable. Consider the statements that Barack Obama made after two prominent Republican senators, Ted Stevens and Howard Baker, died while he was in office; neither mentioned political disagreements. Now consider that those men were each of a different party than Obama—unlike McCain and Trump, who nominally shared a GOP affiliation.

The impulse to foreground division is typical of Trump. So is the chaotic path that led to Monday’s long-awaited statement. The discarded White House comment, the icy tweet, the yo-yoing of the flag—these all suggest an administration that is proceeding without a clear vision, and that is caught in a tug-of-war between the president’s bad attitude and his advisers’ better judgment. And, of course, the impulse to snub McCain, even at the moment of his death and in the face of presidential tradition, speaks to Trump’s vast pettiness; this is the rare occasion when nearly all of the political world is united in mourning.

The lionization of McCain is a little much for some observers, especially on the left. Trump would not be wrong to believe that the praise for McCain is, at least in part, targeted at him, meant both to draw a contrast with the president and to pour some salt into the wounds left by McCain torpedoing the Obamacare repeal. Trump craves elite approval, and so elites weeping and gnashing their teeth is designed, and succeeds, as a way to enrage him.

This is especially true for the press, which loved McCain (who was always ready with a good quote) and has a fractious relationship with Trump. Reporters who otherwise consider themselves objective, non-opinionated journalists have been willing to speak in gushingly reverent terms about McCain. Yet it appears the unremitting criticism from the press Monday on the flag issue finally forced the White House to react.

From trade deals to military deployments, the president has a consistent pattern: Talk a big game, then back down.

That Trump gave in should not come as a surprise. Although he cultivates an image of immovability, as I have written, the president nearly always folds when faced with a tough situation, whether pushing gun control or labeling China a currency manipulator. It might seem counterintuitive that it was the media that helped force Trump’s hand, given his frequent bashing of “fake news,” but the president craves the press’s approval, just like that of other elites.

While press criticism of Trump is exceedingly typical these days, it’s been rare for the media to turn the full force of its disapproval and attention on any single issue during his presidency. The two exceptions are the separations of immigrant families at the border, and the lowering of the flag for McCain. In both cases, Trump has surrendered under pressure.

Where flags fly after a senator dies is hardly the most important issue—in fact, it’s almost entirely symbolic. But just as the flag episode epitomizes so many of the Trump administration’s worst tendencies, it also offers a hint of how much power the press can marshal when united.

Timberrrrrrrr

Canice Picklington wrote: »

I'd say a lot of them are furiously deleting a lot of posts

Posts will stay, accounts will close. Expect a raft of new accounts claiming Trump was robbed.

jasonb

Retr0gamer wrote: »

9k now. But with the detroit votes I don't see it turning red.

Still, it's worrying seeing the lead dwindle, I had enough of that during the night when Biden lost leads in a few states that counted Mail votes first!

Brussels Sprout

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Washington Post reporter:

https://twitter.com/mviser/status/1323988214819000320

Going by that so we could potentially have the networks call it for Biden at some stage tonight as Michigan + Wisconsin + Pennsylvania would put him over the top.

Windmill100000

I'll be honest, I don't really understand the voting system in the US so a thank you to those on here keeping me updated on what is happening.

Inquitus

Faugheen wrote: »

What are you talking about?

A large chunk of the remaining votes in Michigan are mail-ins from Wayne County, which is a Democratic stronghold.

I am tired, I mistyped. Biden has WI and MI for sure, PA is a bit more up in the air as he has a much bigger gap to close.