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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Nody

Well for nothing else this is honestly amazing:
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1323897443398942726

I'm very curious what the numbers will look like in 2024 and if the negative energy (get rid of Trump at all costs / stick it to the liberals) will still drive people to vote.

Retr0gamer

jasonb wrote: »

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

9k now. But with the detroit votes I don't see it turning red.

Inquitus

jasonb wrote: »

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

All the vote left to be counted favour Biden, he's going to win Michigan and Wisconsin, its just a question of if he can close the gap in PA which he can get away with losing now, potentially.

nc6000

MJohnston wrote: »

This wouldn’t be true, as it’s not a vote of the House reps — instead each *state* gets one vote to break that tie. That would go Trump’s way as the GOP easily holds the plurality of number of won states, thanks to all those empty rural states.

It looks likely they will win about 25 states each.

jasonb

Biden up 15,000 in Michigan, so he hasn't run away with it, but hopefully he can at least keep that lead to the end of the vote.

MJohnston

awec wrote: »

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

This wouldn’t be true, as it’s not a vote of the House reps — instead each *state* gets one vote to break that tie. That would go Trump’s way as the GOP easily holds the plurality of number of won states, thanks to all those empty rural states.

UpBack1234

Faugheen wrote: »

The Trump supporters have been fairly quiet for the last couple of hours, haven’t they?

Dems aren't the only ones guilty of living in a bubble. The MAGAs have been tweeting about a Trump landslide for weeks and they're as stunned as we are that anyone could possibly vote for one of their arch-enemy Obama's men.

pixelburp

I unsubscribed from this thread across the night cos I knew full well it'd be swamped with disingenuous trolls and those most excited by the tedious "owning the libs" narrative. Glad / disappointed to see I was right and was exactly the trash fire I thought it would be - coupled with the equally tedious blather over the betting markets. As with the myth that business people make good politicians, so it goes the grip on the belief betting markets possess stronger indicators of the future.

Props to the moderators for keeping the thread vaguely on track and in good faith.

So looks like this wasn't the democrat blow out many had speculated, but I'm more disappointed to see the Senate will remain in O'Connells hands; it's going to make a lot of trouble for Biden to get any key bills across the line. One would wonder if the tactic now is to somehow bring the more centrist republicans over.

If the Biden Presidency (getting ahead of myself of course) truly is about reaching across the aisle and "healing", then it'll be in the senate that strategy will be most vital for this not to be a lame duck administration.

Headshot

Hurrache wrote: »

The thread in Current Affairs was much worse, it was like a Paddy Power forum between all the odds and gambling talk (one guy who bet >€100 on Biden said he'd be happy to lose his bet just to see the liberals getting upset) and just outright trolling (which is still going on).

The modding in this forum is superb in general, the mods are doing a great job managing the trump threads

Faugheen

The Trump supporters have been fairly quiet for the last couple of hours, haven’t they?

Dillonb3

A bit under the radar but a Justice Democrat, Cori Bush, is after been elected to congress. She's the first black congresswoman from Missouri

Quin_Dub

awec wrote: »

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

No.. Not exactly.

The House vote in that scenario is on a State by State basis not a simple majority.

So for example , the Democrats have more seats in California than the Republicans so the Democrats get to submit the California vote etc.

In the current House , the GOP lead 26-24 on a State by State basis because of the lots of small States that they have the lead in - Montana for example has a single House seat - Liz Chaney, so her single seat is worth exactly the same as the dozens in California for that potential vote.

The vote would be made by the newly elected House though , so that 26-24 might change once all the seats are filled.

The way things are shaking out now though , that scenario looks highly unlikely at this stage.

ShatterAlan

kilns wrote: »

Its as good as over now and Biden will win by taking Wi, MI, NV, GE and eventually Pennsylvania

Trump will do what he has always done throughout his life and try sue but it will amount to nothing

The news networks will miss him as he gave them endless hours of talking points but the world is a better place now

So you think that Biden will rejoin the Paris Climate accord, reinstate the Iran Nuclear Deal, move the Embassy back to Tel Aviv, end the trade war with China, butt out of Venezuela and Hong Kong, get the hell out of Afghanistan and Iraq?

Yah!

errlloyd

Did a little excel.

To win Georgia Biden needs 62.6% of whats left
To win Penn he needs 67.3
To win Michigan he needs 48.9

He looks likely to get all three right now.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Using the poll closing times, current polling data and the likelihood of states counting their votes on the night I have generated a simplified, logical flow diagram of the various permutations that I could see happening tomorrow night/Wednesday morning:

Looks like we took the vertical path straight downwards this morning

BorneTobyWilde

Incredible if Biden doesn't need PA, NC AND GA

Mr.Nice Guy

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323994123246948352

Very encouraging.

kilns

Its as good as over now and Biden will win by taking Wi, MI, NV, GE and eventually Pennsylvania

Trump will do what he has always done throughout his life and try sue but it will amount to nothing

The news networks will miss him as he gave them endless hours of talking points but the world is a better place now

josip

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

I've only two daughters and constantly call them the wrong names...

I get my son and the dog's names mixed up

JazzyJ

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

The house elects the President (with 1 vote per state delegation rather than per representative - so not as simple as a straight majority of representives), the senate elects the Vice President.

The Iron Giant

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You should look back at this thread around around 3:30 last night, the amount of Pro Trump "gamblers" coming out of the woodwork was a bit insane. It was hard to actually keep up with actual thread subject

It was actually depressing to have to wade through such horsesh*t.

"Trump is now 1/4, the bookies know more than anyone, its over lads" etc.

Hurrache

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

You should look back at this thread around around 3:30 last night, the amount of Pro Trump "gamblers" coming out of the woodwork was a bit insane. It was hard to actually keep up with actual thread subject

The thread in Current Affairs was much worse, it was like a Paddy Power forum between all the odds and gambling talk (one guy who bet >€100 on Biden said he'd be happy to lose his bet just to see the liberals getting upset) and just outright trolling (which is still going on).

Movementarian

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

Biden has at least 3 of Maines 4 in the bag already.

Kiith

Fox on now about constitutional breaches on the Democrats side.

Of course there is :rolleyes:

bennyl10

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

Maine(most certainly) and NV will go Biden is the one issue with that

robinph

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

The votes from Maine will be split most likely, so will prevent the potential draw scenario.

awec

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

If nobody reaches 270 then the House picks the winner, which likely means Biden.

The Iron Giant

Ronin247 wrote: »

So.....

BIDEN 238...... TRUMP 213

If Biden takes
Michigan 16
North Carolina 15
For 238 + 31 = 269
and Trump takes the rest
Nevada 6
Georgia 16
Maine 4
Pensylvania 20
Wisconsin 10
For 213 + 56 = 269

Do we have a dance off??

I wouldn't have Maine for Trump.

TomOnBoard

Jimmy Bottlehead wrote: »

I swear, if I had considerable will power, I'd love to go back and quote all the nonsense. I think the one I remember most referred to how lovely the tears of Biden supporters are, or how embarrassing this election has been for him and asked why he's not quit already.

I hope that, assuming Biden gets in, some of this silly rhetoric and unintelligent nonsense gets quietened down and relegated to the bin where it belongs.

I wouldn't read too much into it. I dropped out of the thread when the pubs closed and the lads with a few jars turned it in After Hours for a bit. Generally, the thread behaved itself without unduly restrictive moderation, and those mods need to be congratulated for not being unduly controlling in the face of much charter- stretching. On the whole, a turbulent night and a few turbulent days ahead. As Joe said, "Keep the Faith".

seamus

Biden now 18,000 votes ahead in Michigan according. Doesn't seem to be a way back for Donnie on that one unless there's a stack of red votes in the pile. 6% left to count.