MJohnston wrote: » This was another thing that was flagged well in advance, yet the TV networks largely avoided making it clear. Consult 538s when to expect results guide (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/) and it was always clear that the Midwest states were going to see big blue shifts late in the race. On CNN though, it was frantic bull****.
Inquitus wrote: » Aye if he gets rid of the filibuster for court packing he would need 50 Senators + The VP's deciding vote to proceed.
serfboard wrote: » Doubt it. As was said here before, if the Republicans win the Senate, Dr. No (Mitch McConnell) will be back.
MJohnston wrote: » I’m not all that strong on statistics myself, but it’s like when you see a national Biden forecast of +8 then that doesn’t tell you how close things might be state by state. And that’s what’s really important in the presidential race. FL was forecast as Biden +2 and looks like it went Trump +3. At a state level, that’s not a particularly unexpected flip, because the sample sizes for polls are smaller, and therefore the margins of error are larger. Anytime you see a Democrat forecast for a red leaning state by less than 4 or 5, you have to understand that this probably makes it a bit of a tossup.
is_that_so wrote: » TBH it's very much a bi-partisan project and they'd all get credit for it.
Doctor Jimbob wrote: » Personally I hope everyone who put up with accused of being a "snowflake" or had people delight in their alleged tears give as good as they got and then some over the next few years.
Christy42 wrote: » He will. And it will hamstring the Dems but he wasn't able to bring them all along on everything and it will require little to get to a tie that Harris can break
AdamD wrote: » I would have thought a 5 point flip is quite big? Aren't margins of error usually 3 points? If your poll is 5 points off its worse than useless
prawnsambo wrote: » They're always +/- MoE. So going +3 to -2 is inside a 3 point MoE.
Cantstandsya wrote: » I'm the first to put my hand up and admit to being clueless about statistics. It's something I think schools should put a lot more emphasis on.
OhHiMark wrote: » CNN were constantly, and I mean constantly to the point that it was getting ridiculous, saying how we can't read much into the early numbers and that the postal votes counted later would be important. They were even giving percentages of how many current votes were postal votes, and the projected total postal votes.
terryduff12 wrote: » 4 years later and people couldn't accept the fact trump won, tried everything to get him out. So if trump goes down the same route it will go to show both sides are as bad as each other.
MJohnston wrote: » To put it another way, if a poll says Biden 52 and Trump 48, and the MoE is 3%, then that’s saying Biden could get anywhere from 49 to 55 and Trump anywhere from 51 to 45. A lot of people think the MoE applies to the margin, so they’d see 52-48 and say that Biden was outside the MoE because there’s a 4 point gap.
BorneTobyWilde wrote: » Fox still pushing the line, '' how far democrats are out of touch with the american people, with their polling, that Trump has won all the states he was suppose to be losing in.''
Mellor wrote: » That's just people being bad at maths tbh. It should be obvious that if 52% is 2points away from being equal, not the 4pts from 52 to 48.
UpBack1234 wrote: » There is a degree of truth in this tbh- not on individual state polls necessarily (did anyone REALLY think he'd lose TX/FL?) - but to the extent that Trump's IRL popularity among middle Americans has been underplayed by many on "our" side.
Mr.Nice Guy wrote: » I'm worried Trump will take Michigan. It looks very tight.
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