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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Retr0gamer

terryduff12 wrote: »

4 years later and people couldn't accept the fact trump won, tried everything to get him out. So if trump goes down the same route it will go to show both sides are as bad as each other.

They did accept he won. It was just hard to understand how it happened.

[Deleted User]

extra gravy wrote: »

Here we go... Trump supporters will be conceding graciously.

I'm not a Trump fan, but if he won the Biden supporters wouldn't be conceding graciously either. Both sides trading plenty of insults

MJohnston

Akabusi wrote: »

When you consider this, the country is in a bad place and Biden winning may only provide temporary respite.

I’ve seen a lot of this on Twitter but to be honest, I think it’s not that bad. Trump may be Trump but he’s also the candidate of a Republican Party lots of people are ideologically enslaved to. There was always going to be a GOP base there for Trump who would hold their noses because they blame immigrants for their lost car manufacturing jobs, or because they’re well off and old and don’t want to pay taxes, or because they are sociopathically obsessed with banning abortion and controlling other people’s lives.

The fact that an incumbent president had to fight this hard and dirty to retain his seat indicates that he’s deeply unpopular.

[Deleted User]

Commentators on CNN and Sky News tipping Biden if postal voting and counting continues over coming days- apparently postal votes so far are 4:1 in favour of Biden

Jimmy Bottlehead

McFly85 wrote: »

I can see this dragging on. Looks like Biden could clinch it but I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump spends the rest of his time trying to discredit the result and bring it to the courts, regardless of evidence.

I find it bizarre that so many people(including many on this thread) are championing this course of action. People speak of Trump as some sort of messiah who can do no wrong and cannot fail, when he’s arguably the worst President the US has ever had.

It seems like millions of Americans don’t actually care about the democratic process anymore, as long as they’re on the winning side they don’t care how they got there.

The last paragraph sums it up.

Culturally, the US values 'winning' and power over pretty much anything else. It is ultra competitive, and being on the winning side, the one perceived as successful and affluent, or 'strong' enough to battle perceived media and state influences is arguably more important to about half of the American people than values or morals.

jasonb

breezy1985 wrote: »

What I mean is if a state has 6 votes and votes 66% Biden then he gets 4 and Trump 2.

It would be interesting to see if it would change things much

As far as I know, the two states that don't do 'Winner Takes All' are Maine and Nebraska, and they use some sort of system based on the winners in the Congressional races. In other words, if the state has 6 Congressional Seats, and the Dems win 4 and the Republicans 2, then the EV votes for the general election would be 4 for Dems and 2 for Republicans.

This still isn't based on popular vote though, as obviously one of the Republican seat wins in the example above could be due to a lot more votes than a close Dem seat.

I think Winner Takes All feels naturally unfair (the losing votes don't count at all really), but I can see issues with it being based on popular votes totals within a state. Looking at California with 55 EVs, that means that each 1.81% of the popular vote would be worth an EV, and I could imagine some legal challenges to counts etc, if the result was close enough to bring 1 EV into play for either party.

For what it's worth, Trump would still have won in 2016 if every state used the Maine/Nebraska system back then, as they got so many seats in the House.

Nody

awec wrote: »

Does anyone know what the current status is of the Senate / House elections? Control of either likely to change hands?

Looks like House to Dems by a very slight margin; Senate has two seats flipped (one going Rep - to Dem and one Dem - Rep so zero net effect); most likely to be tie or Rep. in Senate.

Jimmy Bottlehead

Retr0gamer wrote: »

Where are the trump supporters?

I swear, if I had considerable will power, I'd love to go back and quote all the nonsense. I think the one I remember most referred to how lovely the tears of Biden supporters are, or how embarrassing this election has been for him and asked why he's not quit already.

I hope that, assuming Biden gets in, some of this silly rhetoric and unintelligent nonsense gets quietened down and relegated to the bin where it belongs.

Christy42

Nody wrote: »

Looks like House to Dems by a very slight margin; Senate has two seats flipped (one going Rep - to Dem and one Dem - Rep so zero net effect); most likely to be tie or Rep. in Senate.

Biden will have the edge in that he is able to talk to people and to negotiate so he will be able to occasionally work with Republicans. Trump simply has no hope and generally struggles dealing with his own party if he gets in.

[Deleted User]

Does Biden need the Senate to increase the size of the Supreme Court?

Infini

awec wrote: »

Does anyone know what the current status is of the Senate / House elections? Control of either likely to change hands?

House going for Dem's

Republicans 47 Dem's 46 atm, so far one change for both parties. Still in play here right now.

ancapailldorcha

RonaVirus banned.

Cantstandsya

Crazy election. Went to bed at 3.30 am and it looked like Trump was nailed on to win.

Raging I didn't slap 100 quid on Biden last night, would have bought me a nice few lockdown beers to enjoy the next few months of Trump freaking out on Twitter.

Mr.Nice Guy

One of Newsnight's editors:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1323977528176975874

Inquitus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Crazy election. Went to bed at 3.30 am and it looked like Trump was nailed on to win.

Raging I didn't slap 100 quid on Biden last night, would have bought me a nice few lockdown beers to enjoy the next few months of Trump freaking out on Twitter.

I waited a bit longer and went to bed when it was apparent the clusterfeck option was most likely, and here we are!

Dillonb3

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Does Biden need the Senate to increase the size of the Supreme Court?

Yep, if the GOP hold the senate if it will near impossible to do that. Even getting a Biden nominated justice onto the court will be difficult

StringerBell

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Crazy election. Went to bed at 3.30 am and it looked like Trump was nailed on to win.

Raging I didn't slap 100 quid on Biden last night, would have bought me a nice few lockdown beers to enjoy the next few months of Trump freaking out on Twitter.

I'd like to have the thread stickied for the next time someone tries to use bookies and exchanges as evidence of some kind of guaranteed outcome in fact.

StringerBell

Dillonb3 wrote: »

Yep, if the GOP hold the senate if it will near impossible to do that. Even getting a Biden nominated justice onto the court will be difficult

I do think Biden will be able to work better with a GOP Senate but without a shadow of a doubt its going to hamstring his administration.

road_high

The postal vote factor seems to be a big thing this time- went to bed this morning assuming a Trump win tbh but it’s only in the past 3 hours or so things seemed to be shaping up differently

MJohnston

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Crazy election. Went to bed at 3.30 am and it looked like Trump was nailed on to win.

Raging I didn't slap 100 quid on Biden last night, would have bought me a nice few lockdown beers to enjoy the next few months of Trump freaking out on Twitter.

The craziest thing, to me, is how close the race has actually ended up hewing to forecast models. For all the early insanity thanks to Florida, most states have gone the way they were predicted to, even if the margins were less than assumed.

That’s why it’s always worth digging into the data that the likes of 538 provide — the topline numbers are one thing, but always arm yourself with an understanding of margins of error, state by state uncertainties, and potential polling problems (the Latino vote problem was flagged well in advance), and therefore what are the range of plausible outcomes.

serfboard

Christy42 wrote: »

Biden will have the edge in that he is able to talk to people and to negotiate so he will be able to occasionally work with Republicans.

Doubt it. As was said here before, if the Republicans win the Senate, Dr. No (Mitch McConnell) will be back.

road_high

I’d seen Florida go strongly for Trump and assumed that was that but seems the story is elsewhere this time

Cantstandsya

MJohnston wrote: »

The craziest thing, to me, is how close the race has actually ended up hewing to forecast models. For all the early insanity thanks to Florida, most states have gone the way they were predicted to, even if the margins were less than assumed.

That’s why it’s always worth digging into the data that the likes of 538 provide — the topline numbers are one thing, but always arm yourself with an understanding of margins of error, state by state uncertainties, and potential polling problems (the Latino vote problem was flagged well in advance), and therefore what are the range of plausible outcomes.

I'm the first to put my hand up and admit to being clueless about statistics.

It's something I think schools should put a lot more emphasis on.

MJohnston

road_high wrote: »

The postal vote factor seems to be a big thing this time- went to bed this morning assuming a Trump win tbh but it’s only in the past 3 hours or so things seemed to be shaping up differently

This was another thing that was flagged well in advance, yet the TV networks largely avoided making it clear.

Consult 538s when to expect results guide (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/) and it was always clear that the Midwest states were going to see big blue shifts late in the race.

On CNN though, it was frantic bull****.

jasonb

Trump's lead in Michigan increases to 24,000, Biden hasn't flipped it Blue yet!

Retr0gamer

Michigan swinging back red but still a massive amount of Detroit votes to come in.

Inquitus

Deleted User wrote: »

Does Biden need the Senate to increase the size of the Supreme Court?

Aye if he gets rid of the filibuster for court packing he would need 50 Senators + The VP's deciding vote to proceed.

Timberrrrrrrr

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Personally I hope everyone who put up with accused of being a "snowflake" or had people delight in their alleged tears give as good as they got and then some over the next few years.

Oh there are tears still, tears of joy knowing that Trump is most likely gone

rameire

Info from CNN and RTE

MJohnston

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I'm the first to put my hand up and admit to being clueless about statistics.

It's something I think schools should put a lot more emphasis on.

I’m not all that strong on statistics myself, but it’s like when you see a national Biden forecast of +8 then that doesn’t tell you how close things might be state by state. And that’s what’s really important in the presidential race.

FL was forecast as Biden +2 and looks like it went Trump +3. At a state level, that’s not a particularly unexpected flip, because the sample sizes for polls are smaller, and therefore the margins of error are larger.

Anytime you see a Democrat forecast for a red leaning state by less than 4 or 5, you have to understand that this probably makes it a bit of a tossup.