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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Brian?

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I'm just saying it's done, same way the polls had Trump far far behind in PA, MH,OH.

His path is so much easier right now, while yesterday Biden had 400 paths, and Trump has 3. Exaggerated , but you get me.

Trump has one path. Win all the states in the rust belt.

BonnieSituation

TP_CM wrote: »

Christ Bonnie!

Apologies. It's in its 8th iteration.

[Deleted User]

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

The Senate isn't ridiculous. Dems used to win seats in rural states but then they decided to swing left and lose all of it.

Republicans have an in built advantage in the senate. Overall if every state was to run Senate elections on the same night, ,they would probably need to win at least 53-47 on national basis to win a majority of seats. The fact that this advantage was once in favour of the Democrats is irrelevant, its bad for democracy. A simple step could be taken to correct it however - Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. No way the republicans would allow this however, disenfranchising large numbers of US citizens is one of their key values at this stage

Brussels Sprout

Went to bed for 4 hours and it looks like the only state to be called in the intervening time was Maine?

Francie Barrett

Michigan numbers are looking good for Biden, Detroit is in and Trump's advantage down to just 1.5, more votes likely to swing Democrat.

Hawkeye9212

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Republicans have an in built advantage in the senate. Overall if every state was to run Senate elections on the same night, ,they would probably need to win at least 53-47 on national basis to win a majority of seats. The fact that this advantage was once in favour of the Democrats is irrelevant, its bad for democracy. A simple step could be taken to correct it however - Statehood for DC and Puerto Rico. No way the republicans would allow this however, disenfranchising large numbers of US citizens is one of their key values at this stage

Statehood for DC is stupid. Dems should just figure out how to win in rural states again.

Kiith

Over 210,000 postal votes still to be counted in Philly, and a decent chunk of those are expected to be for Biden.

Probably still not enough though.

[Deleted User]

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

Statehood for DC is stupid. Dems should just figure out how to win in rural states again.

Why do citizens of DC not get to elect Senators, and what about Puerto Rico?

Kiith

Deleted User wrote: »

Why do citizens of DC not get to elect Senators, and what about Puerto Rico?

Because they would vote blue.

Christy42

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

Statehood for DC is stupid. Dems should just figure out how to win in rural states again.

Give DC senators. Reps should figure out how to win big cities.

I get Republicans seem to not like Democrats voting but it is weird that there are US citizens not at all represented in the senate.

Hawkeye9212

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why do citizens of DC not get to elect Senators, and what about Puerto Rico?

DC is a federal district. Puerto Rico is a territory and they have apply for statehood.

ancapailldorcha

Kiith wrote: »

Because they would vote blue.

Pretty much. It's horrifying that so many people are content with suppresing the votes of people they disagree with.

Hawkeye9212

Christy42 wrote: »

Give DC senators. Reps should figure out how to win big cities.

I get Republicans seem to not like Democrats voting but it is weird that there are US citizens not at all represented in the senate.

Reps don't need to win in big cities if they have the suburbs.

Loughc

Brian? wrote: »

Anyone with this level of certainty has no clue what they’re talking about.

It can go either way.

Honest question here, I honestly don't have a clue nor do I pretend to, how can it go either way, from what I can see Trump is leading in most of the larger remaining electoral votes states, will that not be enough to push him over the line?

I can only see Biden ahead in NV, WI, AZ, which are low enough electoral votes.

johnmcdnl

I don't usually follow the entire results of US elections but I've been flicking through all the stations to get a feel for what the left and right wing stations are saying, and keeping it on in the background since the very start.
It's really startling how little if any coverage is being given to the Congress elections, even as filler content.

Is the level of interest in filling of congress seats always this low or is this a side effect of the Trump show?

Kur4mA

nc6000 wrote: »

Really? Who should we be watching then?

The Associated Press https://www.google.com/search?q=us+presidential+election+2020
ABC News https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

Kiith

Loughc wrote: »

Honest question here, I honestly don't have a clue nor do I pretend to, how can it go either way, from what I can see Trump is leading in most of the larger remaining electoral votes states, will that not be enough to push him over the line?

I can only see Biden ahead in NV, WI, AZ, which are low enough electoral votes.

The only real question now is how many of the uncounted votes are mail in votes, which heavily favour Biden. Mail in votes are counted last in many areas.

Those may push him ahead in some key areas.

murpho999

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

People are dreaming, CNN trying to not declare anything, lets just squeeze another few hours, another few minutes with this dream of winning. Tears in their eyes. It's done, Trump won, and got more votes than last time.

You're skewing info.

Biden so far has gotten more votes than Clinton in 2016.

He has 68.7m compared to Clinton's 65.8 and there's lots more to come.

Trump's vote now at 66.5m compared to 62.9 in 2016.

It reflects higher turnout more than anything and Biden is going to win the irrelevant popular vote.

Hawkeye9212

Michigan is close now. Detroit just reported.

murpho999

Loughc wrote: »

Honest question here, I honestly don't have a clue nor do I pretend to, how can it go either way, from what I can see Trump is leading in most of the larger remaining electoral votes states, will that not be enough to push him over the line?

I can only see Biden ahead in NV, WI, AZ, which are low enough electoral votes.

He has chances in Michigan and Georgia as votes from large urban Democratic strongholds and postal votes which are supposed to be mostly for Democrats are still to come in.

Headshot

Trump is only 64 thousand ahead in Michigan, so Biden is catching up

Brian?

Hawkeye9212 wrote: »

Michigan is close now. Detroit just reported.

Is it enough? Could be just about enough.

Michigan+Wi+NV+Az= President Biden

Kiith

Trump is only 60k ahead in Michigan.

Hawkeye9212

Brian? wrote: »

Is it enough? Could be just about enough.

Michigan+Wi+NV+Az= President Biden

Maybe. Still a lot of mail ballots to be counted but Dems are in a much better position now.

ExMachina1000

Kur4mA wrote: »

The Associated Press https://www.google.com/search?q=us+presidential+election+2020
ABC News https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/2020-us-presidential-election-results-live-map
The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/nov/03/us-election-2020-live-results-donald-trump-joe-biden-who-won-presidential-republican-democrat

AP is a great choice. Personally I think the guardian is garbage but each to their own

prawnsambo

Loughc wrote: »

Honest question here, I honestly don't have a clue nor do I pretend to, how can it go either way, from what I can see Trump is leading in most of the larger remaining electoral votes states, will that not be enough to push him over the line?

I can only see Biden ahead in NV, WI, AZ, which are low enough electoral votes.

Because his lead is tight enough and some of the big cities in those states have still got a lot of votes to count. And generally those votes are splitting 60/40 for Biden, so for every 100k votes, Trump's lead is cut by 20k.

Detroit as an example. 63% reported and Biden takes 37% more of the vote than Trump. So if the remaining votes go the same way, that's 130k marginal increase for Biden which would take him well past Trump (obvs not counting other areas of Michigan and how they'd affect the total).

ddarcy

Christy42 wrote: »

Give DC senators. Reps should figure out how to win big cities.

I get Republicans seem to not like Democrats voting but it is weird that there are US citizens not at all represented in the senate.

Or you could give DC back to Maryland where it came from. The original idea of DC is now flawed, but it shouldn’t be its own state. PR can go through statehood. It does have support on both sides in reality if they want it. They don’t currently don’t.

Headshot

That guy doing the magic wall on CNN is a wizard on it and he'll have carpal tunnel by the time this is all finished lol

sweetie

bennyl10 wrote: »

There's been some outlandish predictions here, but this is up there

should see him on the liverpool thread

Mellor

Loughc wrote: »

Honest question here, I honestly don't have a clue nor do I pretend to, how can it go either way, from what I can see Trump is leading in most of the larger remaining electoral votes states, will that not be enough to push him over the line?

I can only see Biden ahead in NV, WI, AZ, which are low enough electoral votes.

Those 3 bring him to 254 meaning he needs 16 to take it.

MI, PA, & GA are worth 16-20 votes. NC is worth 15
Trump is ahead in those states, but some are only have mail in votes left which are heavily democrat (COVID compliance/denial among other reasons). While Trump is ahead in those states. Biden could catch him in any of them. Michigan in particular is going to be key as Trump is leading on <50%.

Trumps has to win those 4 to reach 270. Biden takes it with any of them.