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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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BonnieSituation

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

People are dreaming, CNN trying to not declare anything, lets just squeeze another few hours, another few minutes with this dream of winning. Tears in their eyes. It's done, Trump won, and got more votes than last time.

Do you think they should declare States that haven't counted their substantial urban areas?

Seems a bit premature.

[Deleted User]

One of the initiatives that will have an interesting outcome in the next few years is in Virginia. If you look at the electoral map it's been gerrymandered so much it makes absolutely no sense.

"Virginia Question 1. Establish Redistricting Commission
Moves the drawing of the state's congressional and legislative districts from the state legislature to a redistricting commission composed of state legislators and citizens."

Passed by a landslide.

TheCitizen

TheValeyard wrote: »

Say Biden has it. He should with the postal votes. Interesting times ahead.

It's a disgrace that Trump has got so close but it will be sweet if Biden wins after Trump was so triumphant last night. Fingers crossed for Biden.

BorneTobyWilde

People are dreaming, CNN trying to not declare anything, lets just squeeze another few hours, another few minutes with this dream of winning. Tears in their eyes. It's done, Trump won, and got more votes than last time.

MJohnston

Shelga wrote: »

Are there any states we're expecting to hear 100% of the results for today?

I think it’s possible we’ll hear WI called today, and maybe even GA too.

Brian?

shrewd wrote: »

what two states?

Biden only needs Wi and Michigan to swing his way and it’s done.

BonnieSituation

That was quite the hour!

Literally, every hour last night from 10pm Irish time onwards it has flip-flopped.

This hour has been no different.

I dread to think what we'll be like come lunchtime.

jasonb

Ok, I can understand Nevada taking some time off from counting, but a whole day? They're not starting again until 9am their time on the 5th? Can't they restart sooner?

Francie Barrett

Headshot wrote: »

So where are we at the moment?

I feel it's changing by the minute and I was offline for an hour or so and feels like things have changed so much

It's looking positive for Biden now. Biden is ahead in Nevada, they just have mail in votes to count. Michigan is looking good for Biden, Trump has a slim lead, but Biden has lots of urban votes that should swing it. Biden is ahead in Wisconsin with very little to count. If he wins them he gets to 270.

MJohnston

PA is obviously going to take a long time to fully count, and it may not even be necessary for Biden to win, but here’s where it’s at:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1323942990331682816?s=21

Brian?

shrewd wrote: »

what two states?

Biden only needs Wi and Michigan to swing his way and it’s done.

Shelga

Are there any states we're expecting to hear 100% of the results for today?

Headshot

So where are we at the moment?

I feel it's changing by the minute and I was offline for an hour or so and feels like things have changed so much

TheValeyard

Say Biden has it. He should with the postal votes. Interesting times ahead.

US2

TheCitizen wrote: »

:pac: You did. I saw your post, others saw it too, but when you realised it's got tight again you deleted.

Nope. Mods deleted it. Why would i delete it.

TheCitizen

US2 wrote: »

I didn't delete any posts. Maybe mods did ?

It's the economy stupid is a famous bill Clinton quote. What's your point?

:pac: You did. I saw your post, others saw it too, but when you realised the race got tight again you deleted.

Francie Barrett

sdanseo wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1323939477060943877?s=20

This should clinch Nevada for the Democrats then.

Infini

martingriff wrote: »

The Senate maybe an interesting one if no party has an overall majority the others may have a part to play which may see Mitch out

Even if Dem's don't get Majority if they get the White House and 50 Senators they still win as VP is the tiebreaker.

Looking at the results so far it's tight but there's a good chance Biden has it as looking on this:

https://www.wsj.com/election-results-2020/

Wall Street Journal has a paths to victory in it, Biden has 18 way's Trump is down to 9. That's not good for Trump as he's fewer options and he's trailing as well in the EC votes. Biden has also got the popular vote Bagged he's passed the 50% Mark as well. Can't write off Trump though until all the vote's are counted he's a stubborn turd to flush but he needs to be if the US has any hope of getting a competent leadership when it really needs it right now.

[Deleted User]

There is a reason Trump wants the counting to stop. The last places to report are typically the biggest cities which skew heavily Democrat, and mail in votes, which so far appear to favour Biden by a 60% margin. This is going to the supreme court I can feel it.

Carfacemandog

Kiith wrote: »

So Nevada won't release anymore counts till 9am tomorrow (5th)? Seems pretty mental given how close it is.

That's weird, did they give any reason as to why? They're only at 67% reporting so it's now like there's just a few finicky ones that need to be reviewed etc.

Carfacemandog

NYT coverage has gone from giving trunp a 65ish percent chance of winning GA last night* to now being 64% Biden with 92% in. Trump is still up by 2% so it looks like the vast majority of remaining votes may be around the Atlanta area or mail ins.

*As best I remember, it was one of the last things I saw before I nodded off at 3.30 or 4am-ish.

murpho999

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

only a matter of time

You don't know.

Either way it's going to be very close so it's in no way a humiliation.

Kiith

So Nevada won't release anymore counts till 9am tomorrow (5th)? Seems pretty mental given how close it is.

[Deleted User]

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Am I right that provisional votes are ones where the illigibility of the voter is contested that take a few days to confirm and count?

Yup. Cuomo on CNN said he had to cast one before. They tend to be changes of address and the like and tend to skew heavily Democrat. So I'm hoping Biden has it won without needing them and the Republicans tying it up in court for weeks.

[Deleted User]

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Well this is something I never thought I’d hear someone say in 2020.

It has been an amazing year, not like "Wow that's amazing let's do that again" and more like "I'm in absolute amazement at the insanity of this year".

gmisk

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

only a matter of time

I don't think it is....
Things are all over the shop.
People who are very pro trump seem to think Biden now has the better chance...he is now slight favourite in betting as well

Carfacemandog

Deleted User wrote: »

If Biden is ahead before the provisional votes then he's in the clear even if it goes to court. The provisionals will skew very heavily Democrat, hopefully they won't be needed.

Am I right that provisional votes are ones where the illigibility of the voter is contested that take a few days to confirm and count?

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

For a bit of contect Biden is now 2.2million ahead on the popular vote, and states like Califonia and New York are only reporting about 66%. If Trump wins on a narrow margin, Biden will likely end up with over 50% of the popular vote at at least a 4 million advantage. Mental system.

I think if Trump wins but Biden has a massive majority of popular vote then there'll be people on the streets, everyone is already so wound up. Not to mention Trump is not a gracious winner by any means so he'll happily stoke that fire.

shrewd

Brian? wrote: »

20pt delta? What are you talking about?

I still think Trump is looking likely, but it’s matter of one or 2 states.

what two states?

josip

kilns wrote: »

No but its their fault for not engaging with those uneducated whom Trump has seduced

It's not possible to compete with a populist who will say whatever appeals to the less educated in order to secure their votes.