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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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MJohnston

I was wrong on Nevada - it tightened a bit more, but Clark County (ie. Vegas) didn’t report its mail totals yet. And probably won’t today.

seamus

Biden surging ahead in the popular vote according to the tracker on RTE. He was about 1m votes ahead when I got up this morning, now 2.3m votes ahead.

I know the popular vote basically means nothing, but it does tell us where the last few counts are going.

This whole process is so bizarre; every media outlet has declared a different # of electoral votes for Biden.

Brian?

MJohnston wrote: »

He needs about 60% of the remaining PA ballots, and those are nearly all early votes. They’ve broken for Biden at around 80% in WI but PA is a very different state (even within itself).

Pa is like 3 different states. Philly, Pittsburgh and the rural districts.

Nerdlingr

Detroit gonna swing it for Biden in Michigan

Eduard Khil

Fox are saying as many as 6 states could be disputed and challenged in the supreme court given that every state uses different counting rules this could be way worse than the Florida debacle in 2000

martingriff

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

He's saying that it's Democratic Party's fault for picking Biden. Let's be fair, he's probably a safe pair of hands but he's not a very inspiring candidate.

I think that's why he may have been picked. Let's have a quiet 4 years (you may see Republicans in cabinet) and try to move away from where we are as the Democrats can not win if if stays as it is or moves even more

jasonb

seamus wrote: »

Biden surging ahead in the popular vote according to the tracker on RTE. He was about 1m votes ahead when I got up this morning, now 2.3m votes ahead.

I know the popular vote basically means nothing, but it does tell us where the last few counts are going.

This whole process is so bizarre; every media outlet has declared a different # of electoral votes for Biden.

Not necessarily, they're still counting in lots of 'called' states, so he could be getting more votes in the states he's already won. I think?

[Deleted User]

For a bit of contect Biden is now 2.2million ahead on the popular vote, and states like Califonia and New York are only reporting about 66%. If Trump wins on a narrow margin, Biden will likely end up with over 50% of the popular vote at at least a 4 million advantage. Mental system.

seamus

jasonb wrote: »

Not necessarily, they're still counting in lots of 'called' states, so he could be getting more votes in the states he's already won. I think?

That's a fair point.

gmisk

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

It won't happen. Joe will retire after this humiliation and be forgotten about by next year.

What humiliation?
He hasn't even lost yet

Quin_Dub

Eduard Khil wrote: »

Fox are saying as many as 6 states could be disputed and challenged in the supreme court given that every state uses different counting rules this could be way worse than the Florida debacle in 2000

It just seems that the run to the courts for everything in the US.

It's bizarre.

I mean we've had various challenges and endless recounts over the years , but I cannot remember a single election needing to call on the courts for resolution in Ireland (or the UK for that matter) in the 30+ years I've been voting.

MJohnston

The state of the state of Nevada:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1323938308183916545?s=21

[Deleted User]

If Biden is ahead before the provisional votes then he's in the clear even if it goes to court. The provisionals will skew very heavily Democrat, hopefully they won't be needed.

Standard Toaster

Can't let one bad night ruin what's been an amazing year.

Dillonb3

MJohnston wrote: »

The state of the state of Nevada:

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1323938308183916545?s=21

Last time clark county voted republican.was for George Bush snr in 88

Carfacemandog

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Vote counting won't be stopped because Trump said so.

Winner will be fair and square. Let's hope the other side accepts it for the sake of democracy in the USA like mentioned

That didn't age too well, Trump is now trying to claim victory and calling the election a fraud all at the one time, while also trying to demand votes stop being counted.

Which if we're all honest, we knew would be the case if he didn't have it won by this morning.

~Rebel~

Standard Toaster wrote: »

Can't let one bad night ruin what's been an amazing year.

Well this is something I never thought I’d hear someone say in 2020.

ExMachina1000

Carfacemandog wrote: »

That didn't age too well, Trump is now trying to claim victory and calling the election a fraud all at the one time, while also trying to demand votes stop being counted.

Which if we're all honest, we knew would be the case if he didn't have it won by this morning.

I posted that after Trumps comments

ThewhiteJesus

gmisk wrote: »

What humiliation?
He hasn't even lost yet

only a matter of time

josip

kilns wrote: »

No but its their fault for not engaging with those uneducated whom Trump has seduced

It's not possible to compete with a populist who will say whatever appeals to the less educated in order to secure their votes.

shrewd

Brian? wrote: »

20pt delta? What are you talking about?

I still think Trump is looking likely, but it’s matter of one or 2 states.

what two states?

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

For a bit of contect Biden is now 2.2million ahead on the popular vote, and states like Califonia and New York are only reporting about 66%. If Trump wins on a narrow margin, Biden will likely end up with over 50% of the popular vote at at least a 4 million advantage. Mental system.

I think if Trump wins but Biden has a massive majority of popular vote then there'll be people on the streets, everyone is already so wound up. Not to mention Trump is not a gracious winner by any means so he'll happily stoke that fire.

Carfacemandog

Deleted User wrote: »

If Biden is ahead before the provisional votes then he's in the clear even if it goes to court. The provisionals will skew very heavily Democrat, hopefully they won't be needed.

Am I right that provisional votes are ones where the illigibility of the voter is contested that take a few days to confirm and count?

gmisk

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

only a matter of time

I don't think it is....
Things are all over the shop.
People who are very pro trump seem to think Biden now has the better chance...he is now slight favourite in betting as well

[Deleted User]

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Well this is something I never thought I’d hear someone say in 2020.

It has been an amazing year, not like "Wow that's amazing let's do that again" and more like "I'm in absolute amazement at the insanity of this year".

[Deleted User]

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Am I right that provisional votes are ones where the illigibility of the voter is contested that take a few days to confirm and count?

Yup. Cuomo on CNN said he had to cast one before. They tend to be changes of address and the like and tend to skew heavily Democrat. So I'm hoping Biden has it won without needing them and the Republicans tying it up in court for weeks.

Kiith

So Nevada won't release anymore counts till 9am tomorrow (5th)? Seems pretty mental given how close it is.

murpho999

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

only a matter of time

You don't know.

Either way it's going to be very close so it's in no way a humiliation.

Carfacemandog

NYT coverage has gone from giving trunp a 65ish percent chance of winning GA last night* to now being 64% Biden with 92% in. Trump is still up by 2% so it looks like the vast majority of remaining votes may be around the Atlanta area or mail ins.

*As best I remember, it was one of the last things I saw before I nodded off at 3.30 or 4am-ish.

Carfacemandog

Kiith wrote: »

So Nevada won't release anymore counts till 9am tomorrow (5th)? Seems pretty mental given how close it is.

That's weird, did they give any reason as to why? They're only at 67% reporting so it's now like there's just a few finicky ones that need to be reviewed etc.