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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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bennyl10

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

thefridge2006

MJohnston wrote: »

No it’s not it’s been rollercoastering all night! That alone should tell you that it’s a reflector of the race not a predictor.

Yes and the whole thing was a rollercoaster.... so they were right.......

SteelyDanJalapeno

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

It's really not, Trump was 4/1 hours before he won 4 years ago, how is that a good indicator

Brian?

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

MJohnston

Decision Desk has it 49.48 Biden to 49.04 Trump, and that’s without the early vote counts in Kenosha county. This will be TIGHT.

Cody montana

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

Well they’ve yelled the same catchphrases for 4 years, why change now?

BonnieSituation

bennyl10 wrote: »

And Biden is still slight favourite to take Georgia

I dont see who the Trump supporters can in any way claim victory at this stage?

By virtue of being Trump supporters and ignoring due process.

Asylum15

bennyl10 wrote: »

not according to the NYT

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323924773840343041?s=20

Ah, seems I made a mistake.

There was a fella on Sky earlier that said it'd go down to the ''red'' city.

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Yes and the whole thing was a rollercoaster.... so they were right.......

Stop being ignorant. You’re trying to use it as a prediction tool but it’s not. As you say in your post, the odds are changing to reflect the narrative only, and they’re predicting nothing.

Christy42

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

I mean they have only flipped about 3 times. They will be right in the end but only because they keep changing their answer.

Plus if you wanted to bet big money on the election you could simply bet on the world markets like renewables, the dollar and oil.

ancapailldorcha

Serious posts only please. A post has been deleted.

Francie Barrett

What a rollercoaster. After the Florida bloodbath, I thought Biden was done, but he has rescued things here. If Biden can take Wisconsin, that reads well across for Michigan and assuming no other shocks, that is mission accomplished.

bennyl10

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

Lead is dropped and Cobb/Fluton/DeKalb are all still to report mail-ins in huge Dem areas

Not a slam dunk but he's getting closer

el Fenomeno

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It is still all to play for , but once it hits the court rooms , who knows how it might end up.

What can Trump's play be in court - challenge the legitimacy of the mail in numbers, claim fraud somewhere? Will he need to have evidence of that (and will he have it)?

Sorry, just curious as to what happens with the threat of the Supreme Court from Trump.

Larbre34

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count
PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count

Keep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favour Biden.

elefant

Larbre34 wrote: »

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count

Biden is ahead by <10k in Wisconsin at the moment.

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

WI: Trump is +100k, but there are 700k votes still to count
PA: Trump is +700k, but 1.8m to count
MI: Trump is +300k, but 1.8m to count
NC: Trump is +77k, but 300k to count
GA: Trump is +100k, but 450k to count

Keep in mind, those are mostly early/mail votes that favour Biden.

Those WI numbers are a good bit out of date now.

Quin_Dub

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

I didn't think so either, but looking at the county level detail on FOX it seems that the two remaining districts to declare - DeKalb and Fulton are both heavily Democrat with 75/80% of the vote.

Not sure how many more votes are to be counted or if the running totals from those two counties are included in the overall count yet.

So maybe?

everlast75

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323926165590052864?s=20

JFC - what an utter shambles!

Faugheen

Brian? wrote: »

Is Biden fav for Georgia? I don’t see it

A large chunk of the votes they’re waiting for are mail-in ballots from Atlanta.

Biden is absolutely a narrow favourite, but not by much.

Larbre34

The Supreme Court doesn't worry me, they'll adopt the same logic as we've seen in the lower courts, 'if the votes are there, count them all'

Besides, I'm quite sure the learned jurists of the SC would be quite happy to see the back of a threat to the Constitution like Trump, even the members he appointed. Frankly, they can protect a conservative position on matters before them irrespective of whether he is President.

extra gravy

"Trump's lead is now down to 70,000 votes statewide in Michigan. Wayne County has only reported 53%. Biden is about to stack up a couple hundred thousand votes there alone."

dogbert27

I really want Biden to win, or really anyone but Trump but I had a feeling yesterday this wasn't going to be so easy as some people thought it would be for Biden.

Winning a second term and knowing he can do what ever the hell he wants is actually scarier prospect than Trumps first term.

I think America will descend even further in to civil division.

MJohnston

Larbre34 wrote: »

The Supreme Court doesn't worry me, they'll adopt the same logic as we've seen in the lower courts, 'if the votes are there, count them all'

Besides, I'm quite sure the learned jurists of the SC would be quite happy to see the back of a threat to the Constitution like Trump, even the members he appointed. Frankly, they can protect a conservative position on matters before them irrespective of whether he is President.

Yes, it looks like a Senate majority is probably still in Republican hands, and I think the conservative Justices will feel more connection to Senate Rs than Trump. They’ll not have his back unless it’s very very close.

bennyl10

Wisconsin and Michigan are enough for Biden.

Georgia/NC/PA wont matter..

I think?

MJohnston

We could be getting a Nevada result soon

https://twitter.com/nvelect/status/1323931489503830017?s=21

Quin_Dub

el Fenomeno wrote: »

What can Trump's play be in court - challenge the legitimacy of the mail in numbers, claim fraud somewhere? Will he need to have evidence of that (and will he have it)?

Sorry, just curious as to what happens with the threat of the Supreme Court from Trump.

It will be a combination of all those things.

In Pennsylvania it will be focused on the recent ruling that said that any ballot post marked by election but received afterwards (up to 3 days later I think it was) can be counted. He'll be looking to have that overturned.

In WI it was about a bunch of ballots that had been found to have admin errors (typos and the like) , but that were "corrected" and then allowed to be included.

They'll also be doing the usual stuff like poring over each and every ballot trying to find technical breaches that they can get them tossed for - If you're old enough to remember Florida 2000 , think of the "hanging chads" issues there.

Trumps hope is that if the local level courts find against him that he can a kick the appeal up to the SCOTUS and that his freshly minted Justice will do him a solid.

everlast75

Even "if"Biden wins, we will have at least 2 more years of Mitch sitting on his bruised hands when it comes to crucial Bills to be passed.

It really is the hope that kills you.

extra gravy

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323927266808762369?s=19

Michigan update

TheCitizen

Biden needs 2 out of the 4 from Wisconson Pennsylvania Georgia and Michigan. Trump says he will go to court if he loses, he's a Fascist that doesn't respect democracy. If Trump happens to win he should be impeached.