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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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dogbert27

As things currently stand:

Biden ahead in Nevada and Wisconsin = 16 electoral votes putting him at 254

Trump ahead GA, NC, PA, MI = 67 electoral votes putting him at 280

Biden needs to claim NV and WI and win MI or else this is Trumps.

Quin_Dub

At present Biden is on a confirmed 244 (giving him NV here) so he needs 26 - with 46 on the table from WI,MI and PA all of which he is absolutely in the mix for. So he needs 2 out of those three to win.

If Biden takes them by a large enough margin it might limit the legal options.

I *think* that you can only look for recounts etc. when the margin is less than 0.5% or something like that.

Although more counting is not really with Trump is looking for right now.

One way or another we are looking at at least 2 weeks of litigation on this with suit and counter suit going back and forth.

If it does end up being settled in court as looks likely , whoever wins is going to have a huge "legitimacy" question hanging over them from a huge swathe of the country.

foxyladyxx

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

So the Christian prayers all over the world magically transformed into votes?

You said it!!

bennyl10

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Biden now leading by 8,000 with 95% still reporting.

and green bay to come which should be blue

Easy to see why Trump made his speech now

kilns

Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia and Biden wins

[Deleted User]

circadian wrote: »

Very tight, if Biden gets Wisconsin and Michigan then it makes Pennsylvania a little less important.

It would make PA irrelevant.

ELM327

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

Carfacemandog

seamus wrote: »

It's worth noting that in terms of the count process, votes cast yesterday get counted first and mail-in ballots get counted last.

It varies from state to state, Biden had a huge lead early in some due to them counting mail in first, while some that Trump took big leads in early didn't count mail in until last (and some are still counting mail ins as best I know).

kilns

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Biden now only needs Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.

foxyladyxx

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Someone should tell them about all the unchristian things he does.

He is not running for Pope. He is ,however, God's chosen man for America.

bennyl10

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

It's going to be very tight, but at the moment, it's looking like biden might pip it

[Deleted User]

Now they're saying WI 89% reporting. Bit off with their estimates it would seem.

sdanseo

Morning all. Jasus almost nothing changed in 5 hours despite all the things that happened.

No chance by my estimation that Biden wins WI. He's less than 15k votes ahead with around 55k left to count, all in counties which are red by several points. I fear it's mathematically impossible now no matter how good the mail ins.

Georgia is a dead duck - 102k vote lead for Trump with 1% left which is only around 50k votes total. Lost cause.

All going to come down to PA. Guess we'll know by Friday.

Blanco100

Trump needs to run up a larger surplus in Milwaukee to take WI. Remaining counties will go red.

Edit: Milwaukee numbers are complete so no further surplus.

Id expect Trump to make up the 10k votes in WI, as remaining counties are usually red.

Blowfish

foxyladyxx wrote: »

You said it!!

Surely God changing peoples votes means that he's incredibly undemocratic and in fact, commits voter fraud?

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

BETFAIR

Biden 2.4
Trump 1.72

Very close again

Good god who gives a **** about betting odds? They’re about as predictive as the stock market.

thefridge2006

Biden 1.98
Trump 2.02

Looks like the bookies have switched the favourites

ArmaniJeanss

bennyl10 wrote: »

and green bay to come which should be blue

Easy to see why Trump made his speech now

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

[Deleted User]

I think WI has to be within 1% to allow for a recount, it's in that realm and I'd be certain if Biden wins Trump will request a recount while banging on about fraud.

Whatever the result of the election I don't think it's over, expect more demonstrations and confrontations.

MJohnston

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

It’s not about the county overall but it’s remaining uncounted ballots. Those are basically only early votes at this stage which means they could break for Biden

Asylum15

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

Correct, Green Bay is mostly republican from what I see.

Francie Barrett

Blanco100 wrote: »

Trump needs to run up a larger surplus in Milwaukee to take WI. Remaining counties will go red.

Milwaukee has already reported.

thefridge2006

MJohnston wrote: »

Good god who gives a **** about betting odds? They’re about as predictive as the stock market.

Its a very very good indicator .........

foxyladyxx

Blowfish wrote: »

Surely God changing peoples votes means that he's incredibly undemocratic and in fact, commits voter fraud?

No God doesn't change the votes. He changes the voters silly.

Quin_Dub

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

Right now Biden is on 238 with Nevada pretty much a given , so 244 really.

Trump is on 213 and likely to take NC so that brings him to 227.

Trump probably takes Georgia as well , but it will be very close , so he's maybe on 243 , leaving the 3 Mid-West States to go.

That leaves 46 EC votes in play - Both candidates need at least two out of the 3 to win.

Biden has moved ahead in WI and MI and PA are both absolutely still there for the taking. They are now counting the mail-in ballots there and Biden had a clear lead in that category in both States so barring successful legal action from Trump , Biden has pretty decent odds of taking at least one of them if not both.

It is still all to play for , but once it hits the court rooms , who knows how it might end up.

bennyl10

Asylum15 wrote: »

Correct, Green Bay is mostly republican from what I see.

not according to the NYT

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1323924773840343041?s=20

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Its a very very good indicator .........

No it’s not it’s been rollercoastering all night! That alone should tell you that it’s a reflector of the race not a predictor.

Brian?

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

20pt delta? What are you talking about?

I still think Trump is looking likely, but it’s matter of one or 2 states.

[Deleted User]

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

Green Bay city narrowly went for Clinton, the County went for Trump. Its the city that's left to report

BonnieSituation

Well, that has gone to the 2020 script.

I must send for the head of the scriptwriter.