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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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[Deleted User]

I think WI has to be within 1% to allow for a recount, it's in that realm and I'd be certain if Biden wins Trump will request a recount while banging on about fraud.

Whatever the result of the election I don't think it's over, expect more demonstrations and confrontations.

ArmaniJeanss

bennyl10 wrote: »

and green bay to come which should be blue

Easy to see why Trump made his speech now

I'd have thought GB would be red? (Purely basing this on the 100% white, flag waving NFL fans)

thefridge2006

Biden 1.98
Trump 2.02

Looks like the bookies have switched the favourites

MJohnston

thefridge2006 wrote: »

BETFAIR

Biden 2.4
Trump 1.72

Very close again

Good god who gives a **** about betting odds? They’re about as predictive as the stock market.

Blowfish

foxyladyxx wrote: »

You said it!!

Surely God changing peoples votes means that he's incredibly undemocratic and in fact, commits voter fraud?

Blanco100

Trump needs to run up a larger surplus in Milwaukee to take WI. Remaining counties will go red.

Edit: Milwaukee numbers are complete so no further surplus.

Id expect Trump to make up the 10k votes in WI, as remaining counties are usually red.

sdanseo

Morning all. Jasus almost nothing changed in 5 hours despite all the things that happened.

No chance by my estimation that Biden wins WI. He's less than 15k votes ahead with around 55k left to count, all in counties which are red by several points. I fear it's mathematically impossible now no matter how good the mail ins.

Georgia is a dead duck - 102k vote lead for Trump with 1% left which is only around 50k votes total. Lost cause.

All going to come down to PA. Guess we'll know by Friday.

[Deleted User]

Now they're saying WI 89% reporting. Bit off with their estimates it would seem.

bennyl10

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

It's going to be very tight, but at the moment, it's looking like biden might pip it

foxyladyxx

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Someone should tell them about all the unchristian things he does.

He is not running for Pope. He is ,however, God's chosen man for America.

kilns

ELM327 wrote: »

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Biden now only needs Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia.

Carfacemandog

seamus wrote: »

It's worth noting that in terms of the count process, votes cast yesterday get counted first and mail-in ballots get counted last.

It varies from state to state, Biden had a huge lead early in some due to them counting mail in first, while some that Trump took big leads in early didn't count mail in until last (and some are still counting mail ins as best I know).

ELM327

Looking at the AP predictions and results it's very difficult to believe the pro biden posts still holding out hope.
I went to bed at 5am very happy with POTUS's performance and wake up to hear he has taken Iowa too. This one is gonna be a win for the donald, but with less EC votes than the 306 last time. We knew this, as AZ switched to blue.

Giving most states that are tagged as red by AP currently to Trump, we get a 280 to 260 result. A 20pt delta.

[Deleted User]

circadian wrote: »

Very tight, if Biden gets Wisconsin and Michigan then it makes Pennsylvania a little less important.

It would make PA irrelevant.

kilns

Nevada, Wisconsin and Georgia and Biden wins

bennyl10

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Biden now leading by 8,000 with 95% still reporting.

and green bay to come which should be blue

Easy to see why Trump made his speech now

foxyladyxx

The Raging Bile Duct wrote: »

So the Christian prayers all over the world magically transformed into votes?

You said it!!

Quin_Dub

At present Biden is on a confirmed 244 (giving him NV here) so he needs 26 - with 46 on the table from WI,MI and PA all of which he is absolutely in the mix for. So he needs 2 out of those three to win.

If Biden takes them by a large enough margin it might limit the legal options.

I *think* that you can only look for recounts etc. when the margin is less than 0.5% or something like that.

Although more counting is not really with Trump is looking for right now.

One way or another we are looking at at least 2 weeks of litigation on this with suit and counter suit going back and forth.

If it does end up being settled in court as looks likely , whoever wins is going to have a huge "legitimacy" question hanging over them from a huge swathe of the country.

dogbert27

As things currently stand:

Biden ahead in Nevada and Wisconsin = 16 electoral votes putting him at 254

Trump ahead GA, NC, PA, MI = 67 electoral votes putting him at 280

Biden needs to claim NV and WI and win MI or else this is Trumps.

Carfacemandog

Carfacemandog wrote: »

Wisconsin now at a 30,000 difference from 3mn votes - Trump up by 1% with 5% left to be counted.

Biden now leading by 8,000 with 95% still reporting.

seamus

It's worth noting that in terms of the count process, votes cast yesterday get counted first and mail-in ballots get counted last.

We already know that democrats cast 50% more mail-in ballots then republicans.

This is why Trump is so eager to declare fraud and try to stop the counts early.

valoren

The red mirage eh?

Biden now ahead in Wisconsin? It now makes sense as to why a sitting President can declare victory while counting remains ongoing and says he'll be taking it to the supreme court to have them stop the counting. Ordinarily between rational candidates this would be democratic blasphemy but with Trump it has become normalised chaos. Throw in the expected electoral fraud claims and it’s why he just has to be ousted for some sense of normality.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Biden up 20k
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1323922315244130304

Very tight, if Biden gets Wisconsin and Michigan then it makes Pennsylvania a little less important.

briany

Looks like this is going as predicted - Trump ahead in certain states with postal votes yet to count. This could get quite bitter indeed.

Kiith

Christy42 wrote: »

He has put pro life judges in the supreme Court. Nothing else in Christianity matters to the hard core element of that bloc.

Fixed that for you.

Christy42

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Someone should tell them about all the unchristian things he does.

He will put pro life judges in the supreme Court. Nothing else in Christianity matters to the hard core element of that bloc.

[Deleted User]

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Oh sorry so when you said the 90% figure was that to Biden ?

Yeah the new votes went bigly for Biden.

Milwaukee still only 77% reporting so Biden suddenly looks like he has WI. Such a pain when data isn't clean. I may have been too quick to trust the data :L

thefridge2006

BETFAIR

Biden 2.4
Trump 1.72

Very close again

The Raging Bile Duct

foxyladyxx wrote: »

If Trump wins it is because of his pro life stance.

Christians from all over the world have been praying for a victory for Trump. Christian groups across the US have campaigned for Trump so that is where is support is coming from.

So the Christian prayers all over the world magically transformed into votes?

ThewhiteJesus

Not bad for a failed businessman and all the other names getting slinged at him