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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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paleoperson

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

This is exciting stuff lads, whatever side you're on, I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve

It's the most bizarre and unrealistic yet fun timelines imaginable.

The only thing that could get crazier would be if they can't figure out who won - who knows what the hell that would start.

Real Donald Trump

paleoperson wrote: »

It's the most bizarre and unrealistic yet fun timelines imaginable.

The only thing that could get crazier would be if they can't figure out who won - who knows what the hell that would start.

If Trump wins it will be world war 3 :pac:

dark crystal

Mark Kelly (D) looks certain to take seat from Martha McSally (R) in Arizona.

Theresa Greenfield (D) looking very strong against Joni Ernst (R) in Iowa.

Raphael Warnock (D) in a tight lead against Kelly Loeffler (R) in Georgia.

Blanco100

Larbre34 wrote: »

Whatever about Michigan, PA aren't counting early votes until tomorrow at the earliest.

Huge assumption that early votes/postal votes are favouring democrats in all states. Especially Pennsylvania.

Morrisp

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

If Trump wins it will be world war 3 :pac:

I think scary thing is he wins world war 3 he loses world war 3 , lose lose

FatRat

People wondering about odds. Looking at % chance in relation to odds

1/2 = 66%
2/1 = 33%

4/9 quoted above is around 70% chance of victory.

For Betfair odds...

1.5 means 1/2 odds or 66% chance as above. 2.0 means 50% chance or 1/1 odds. Closer to 1.0 means more likely to win i.e. 1.0 is 100% chance of victory. 4.0 is 3/1 odds and same for all decimals above. Take the whole number, minutes one and that what you can translate to odds. So 6.0-1=5 so 6.0 is 5/1.

Betfair odds are referenced here a lot by us bettors because this is an exchange and not a bookmaker. So it is people Vs people in a free markett rather than a bookmaker setting the odds. In fact bookmakers set their odds based on Betfair a exchange market because it tells them what odds the general public determine to be most accurate and are willing to bet at.

Windmill100000

Just woke up hoping to hear more results but still very touch and go. What are people thinking? Is The Don a goner?

Real Donald Trump

Biden winning the entire west coast, no surprise there

Mr.Nice Guy

Arizona looking promising.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323837072143241217

shocksy

Windmill100000 wrote: »

Just woke up hoping to hear more results but still very touch and go. What are people thinking? Is The Don a goner?

Not by a long shot.

Manic Moran

Also, he rustbelt GOP voters and poor "white trash" voting for trump and going on about how "the stock market is rising" while living paycheck to paycheck are turkeys voting for christmas - they are the next demographic for the private prisons to decimate now that meth and opiods are wrecking poor white regions.

After the 2016 election, there were a few commentary pieces relating to that last concept, that the folks in the rustbelt were being told (condescendingly, often) that they were voting against their own best interest and how they felt about it. These are also the sort of folks who don't like to be lectured by others, even assuming that the others are correct, which need not be how they see it from where they're sitting and given their own priorities. What you or I may think should be their priority need not be what they think.

AbusesToilets

Seems Cunningham fluffed what should've been a walk in vs Tillis in NC. Very disappointed, Tillis being one of the.main drivers of all the electoral chicanery in NC

murpho999

Still a lot to play for.

Pensylvannia. Biden behind but large urban areas like Philladelphia votes to come in.

North Carolina has lots of urban votes to come in.

Arizona looks good for Biden.
Also leading in Iowa.

rosser44

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

If Trump wins it will be world war 3 :pac:

Well he is the most likely person to start it in the last 70 years, and I include a drunk messy Khrushchev in that estimation

Real Donald Trump

Cali voting blue is no surprise, but yet Trumps policies favor big tech companies ?? Is it that they just hate him so much or what? anyone care to expand ?

Larbre34

Blanco100 wrote: »

Huge assumption that early votes/postal votes are favouring democrats in all states. Especially Pennsylvania.

There are many good reasons for that assumption. Its solid.

440Hertz

Trump and the GOP certainly won’t deliver for the Rust Belt, but the problem is neither have the Democratic Party, who took their loyalty for granted.

The Dems have drifted way too far to the right on socioeconomic policies, while being entirely focused on trendy urban areas and that’s being reflected in their vote.

For example, they should be able to get rust belt and agricultural votes in a bigger way than they do, but they haven’t been listening for many years.

Trump is just a grifter and told the Rustbelt what they want to hear. He’s no ability to deliver any of it and most of it is totally contrary to GOP free market ideology, which would let those areas die off as they’re no longer economically viable.

The Dems would be far better off not responding to the GOP talking points, which are mostly about religious conservative issues and guns and so on, and instead just present an alternative and positive plan and actually engage with people, beyond the bubble.

The GOP has successfully framed everything around a largely false culture war and they’re thriving on it. The Democrats keep feeding the troll and engaging with negative campaigns and tribalism. They should be trying to push out a clean, fresh alternative view of what America could be.

Larbre34

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

Cali voting blue is no surprise, but yet Trumps policies favor big tech companies ?? Is it that they just hate him so much or what? anyone care to expand ?

Big Tech isn't as dominant on the California voter landscape as you are thinking.

Mr.Nice Guy

Pennsylvania votes could be significant.

https://twitter.com/JonathanTamari/status/1323831202919362560

Real Donald Trump

rosser44 wrote: »

Well he is the most likely person to start it in the last 70 years, and I include a drunk messy Khrushchev in that estimation

TBF he's actually the last person to start any wars, which is the reason I support him, he's actually anti- war besides what people may think.. and i for one am glad, it's actually very refreshing tbh

vafankillar

I really wish I booked tomorrow off work, i'm really enjoying watching liberals explode after having learned literally nothing from 2016 lmfao. infact they basically just doubled down on everything they done wrong. They went in even more arrogant and expecting to win

Real Donald Trump

vafankillar wrote: »

I really wish I booked tomorrow off work, i'm really enjoying watching liberals explode after having learned literally nothing from 2016 lmfao. infact they basically just doubled down on everything they done wrong. They went in even more arrogant and expecting to win

Just call in the morning saying you have Covid symptoms and you're sorted pal :pac:

Larbre34

vafankillar wrote: »

I really wish I booked tomorrow off work, i'm really enjoying watching liberals explode after having learned literally nothing from 2016 lmfao. infact they basically just doubled down on everything they done wrong. They went in even more arrogant and expecting to win

Biden will win, what are you on about?

vafankillar

Larbre34 wrote: »

Biden will win, what are you on about?

he may do but they expected some landslide bluewave

:rolleyes:

FatRat

For anyone interested, Steven Crowder on Youtube (Big trump guy) currently has Don Junior on a facetime live from the white house

An independent Youtuber providing better election coverage than all the major media.

Edit; just to be clear it's obvioualy sickly pro trump. I'm not saying it's better material, just better access

rosser44

Manic Moran wrote: »

After the 2016 election, there were a few commentary pieces relating to that last concept, that the folks in the rustbelt were being told (condescendingly, often) that they were voting against their own best interest and how they felt about it. These are also the sort of folks who don't like to be lectured by others, even assuming that the others are correct, which need not be how they see it from where they're sitting and given their own priorities. What you or I may think should be their priority need not be what they think.

But you have to agree that the idea that trump is going to bring back manufacturing to these poor white areas is laughable - what company is going to pay 10x the wages that they are currently paying in Asia or Africa etc.

Also coal mining is done for, mines in Appalachia are closed for good due to renewables getting cheaper and cheaper.

I'm from a rural part of midwest Ireland not a million miles away from the likes of the rustbelt - they are areas that are forgotten and hyper capitalistic policies do nothing for these people, they are collateral damage for the capitalistic machine

Edit - I want to clarify that I'm no leftist free money woo merchant, I think the social welfare system in ireland is already too generous

Larbre34

vafankillar wrote: »

he may do but they expected some landslide bluewave :rolleyes:

Taking the White House, Senate and House will probably make them feel ok about that, not to mention a **** ton of State houses and State courts.

Real Donald Trump

This is really 50-50, betting odds all over the place

Latest betting odds

Trump 4/11
Biden 12/5

[Deleted User]

Biden should flip one Nebraska district as well. Christ it's going to be tight.

letowski

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

This is really 50-50, betting odds all over the place

Latest betting odds

Trump 4/11
Biden 12/5

This is such a tight race. Its going to come down to Michigan and Pennsylvania. And both those we can't get a read yet.

Very exciting and nervy