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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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All_in_Flynn

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There are twitter pollsters I've been keeping an eye on that were very positive about Biden earlier in the evening - they're hardy saying anything now.

This feels like Trump has won. I hope there is a pleasant surprise on the way because I can't see anything for Biden supporters to be positive about as it stands.

Ye I'm hoping he manages to sneak Ohio or NC somehow but I just can't see it.

kilns

If you were a Trump supporter you would be confident right now

shocksy

Trump 1/5
Biden 13/5

Easy money for all the Biden supporters on here who still thinks he has it in the bag. I wouldn't be betting on him at this stage.

FrostyJack

Graham kept his seat. Jesus wept.

J2CVC

Blanco100 wrote: »

The markets probably had wider odds 4 years ago in fairness. All to play for.

The markets certainly weren't wrong at this point last year.

Mr.Nice Guy

There are twitter pollsters I've been keeping an eye on that were very positive about Biden earlier in the evening - they're hardy saying anything now.

This feels like Trump has won. I hope there is a pleasant surprise on the way because I can't see anything for Biden supporters to be positive about as it stands.

Real Donald Trump

Latest

Biden 11/4
Trump 1/4

StringerBell

Right, I'd say I'll be safe to go have a sleep for few hours and see how the land lies when more of the vote is actually in. Nothing has flipped or been called in a shock yet. All to play for, enjoy it.

quokula

Even if Biden does win, the fact that it’s so close really makes me lose faith in humanity to see such complete ignorance on such a massive scale.

And if Trump wins, it really leaves me terrified about the world my children will grow up into with continuing accelerating climate change and all the disruption and devastation that will bring.

FatRat

Sky News being hit with some reality now. The biased analysts they have on are starting to sound worried.

Brian?

Francie Barrett wrote: »

538 should shut down after this.

Why? Because you don’t understand how it works?

Larbre34

Good moment to get some money off em. Put a ton on Biden.

Real Donald Trump

Whatever happens I still love John King at the board

Blanco100

Bowlardo wrote: »

Biden 21/10
Trump 3/10

Paddy power

They were wrong last time

The markets probably had wider odds 4 years ago in fairness. All to play for.

Bowlardo

Biden 21/10
Trump 3/10

Paddy power

They were wrong last time

BonnieSituation

Francie Barrett wrote: »

538 should shut down after this.

Will you calm down.

BonnieSituation

Akabusi wrote: »

What has happened with the Florida counting, was flying earlier and seems stuck at 92% now

The Panhandle are an hour behind the rest of the state so that's the last few.

Larbre34

Professional sap Cory Gardner loses his Senate seat to Dems.

Manic Moran

virginmediapls wrote: »

Regardless of who eventually stutters to victory here, it's a ****ing damning indictment on the population of the USA that this orange gowl got so many votes.

To include the politicians.

Being not an orange gowl is a good thing. Being not an orange gowl, however, is not a political position nor does it affect people's lives as much as the policies carried out. Democrats may mock folks in Alabama or Wyoming or rural Pennsylvania or the Florida-Georgia-Line, wherever, but the bottom line is that their policies are sufficiently repugnant to the voters of those areas that they would rather vote for orange gowl than the Democrat candidate.

They have two choices. They can either ignore those voters and hope to get enough votes elsewhere, which did not work in 2016, or they can be more Blue Dog and less Left Coast.

Now, unlike most of you, apparently, I'm not drawing any particular dramatic conclusions from the tallies so far from these very early votes. When I go to bed in a couple of hours, I'm still fairly sure I'll be waking up to a Biden victory. But the bottom line is that in four years, they will not likely be running against an orange gowl, and the voters of non-urban American will still predominantly not like Democrat policies, and the Democrats will not have any more claim to be a representative party than the Republicans do.

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Well, that Thanks checks out...

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Lol

EltonJohn69

Canice Picklington wrote: »

At this stage I think Trump could well take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Virginia.

Personally I think something very strange is going on.

Strange ?

[Deleted User]

Blanco100 wrote: »

The betting exchange will swing over and back a couple of times tonight.

I like the 15/8 on a Biden victory.

5/2 on betfair

MurDawg

Trump favoured to win PA

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

all of our Whiskeys are in that case.

John Jameson wasn't a papist by any stretch.

Well, that Thanks checks out...

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

All_in_Flynn

Lol this is mad. This is not going like I thought it would. I'm really starting to struggle to see how Biden wins now. Exchanges are a massive indicator.

Real Donald Trump

FrostyJack wrote: »

This is grim, I have put the drink away and put on the comfort food. Still not all lost though.

<<<<

Stick with the booze, this night is huge

StringerBell

Canice Picklington wrote: »

At this stage I think Trump could well take Pennsylvania, Michigan, and possibly Virginia.

Personally I think something very strange is going on.

He's doing pretty badly in Pennsylvania, and that's with election day vote I believe so it doesn't look great for him but you could well be right.

I'd be amazed if he takes Virginia and I really don't see him taking Michigan either tbh but long way to go.

He's actually got a good lead in the popular vote right now for example but we know he's gonna lose that by quite some margin.

Approved User Assesment

Early still, but the Donald chap will win the POTUS2020.

J2CVC

Blanco100 wrote: »

The odds will swing back again.

Lots of confusion around order of the count. Big presumption that early vote (which favours Biden) is counted first in all states.

Its not in all cases. Saying that, big presumption also that Biden will take most early votes in all states too.

Well you can literally make a fortune then if you put your money where your mouth is.

Betfair:

Biden: 3.7
Trump: 1.36

It's going terribly for Biden.

TallyRand

Larbre34 wrote: »

Screenshot.

You’re jumping in like a rabid dog, it’s been explained a couple of times that exchange markets are a very good (better than polls for sure) indicator.

If you don’t understand it that’s fine but stop hopping on every comment, very likely trump wins ........almost, almost makes me smile the way a lot of people are carrying on