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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Inquitus

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Only 31% of the early vote has been counted in Ohio.

Biden's not performing like a candidate who is going to overcome the 8% margin Trump won with in Ohio in 2016. Biden will end up needing to run the board through Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

Mr.Nice Guy

It seems the shy Trump voter was very real. The polls have got this very wrong and I'm getting that sinking feeling that it will be 4 more years of that charlatan.

virginmediapls

Limpy wrote: »

The boom will be back big time in America with Trump getting 4 more years. The voters agree.

What, like, terrorism? Or a boom in covid deaths?

Real Donald Trump

virginmediapls wrote: »

Regardless of who eventually stutters to victory here, it's a ****ing damning indictment on the population of the USA that this orange gowl got so many votes.

People are sick of PC and kneeling to hypocritical mobs

Blanco100

Biden can still take Ohio. Loads of early votes left to count.

[Deleted User]

Francie Barrett wrote: »

He isn't likely to lose any of them. Biden has some leads thanks to the early votes being counted first, but he's getting eaten alive as the counts go on.

Biden is looking like he HAS to win Wis/Mich/Penn now.

Wisconsin will go blue.

FatRat

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

Well that was quick 180.

Well if you read carefully and maybe ask someone for help you might figure it out. It gives as close to perfect information as we can get ..... Because we are dealing with imperfect information.

But keep that narrative going by all means

J2CVC

Biden needs some good news soon.

StringerBell

Francie Barrett wrote: »

He isn't likely to lose any of them. Biden has some leads thanks to the early votes being counted first, but he's getting eaten alive as the counts go on.

Biden is looking like he HAS to win Wis/Mich/Penn now.

It is absolutely ridiculous that you continue to say the same thing over and over and when it has been pointed out to you that it is not uniformly down to the early vote. It is not the early vote counted first in every state, when is this going to sink in?

Larbre34

breezy1985 wrote: »

Biden is losing Ohio now

There is an increase in Ohio early vote yet to come.

BringBackMick

It’s 2020, we shouldn’t have expected any different

sReq | uTeK

When every bookie in the world has you behind you are.

CNN....I mean its laughable what they're saying at the moment.

Francie Barrett

If you want to see how bad things are, look at Florida.

Clinton defeated there by 100k votes in 2016. Biden defeated by nearly 400k votes.

This is a humiliation for the Democrats.

virginmediapls

J2CVC wrote: »

Man you're way out on this. Bookmakers follow the exchanges. They're all the same. If they're not people can hedge bets and guarantee a profit. Believe me the betting market is the best indicator you will find.

Especially when put alongside the alternative metrics we have at this point - exit polls which are dog****, and early counts which give us **** all information whatsoever.

Bookmakers odds/exchanges have historically been one of them most predictive features usable in election models. I don't know why people **** on them so much. When there's money at stake, **** gets done properly.

Water John

Depends on whether the votes counted are early votes? In the case of NC yes but in Ohio no. Still think Ohio to Biden.

The Iron Giant

Brian? wrote: »

I think I'm so upset because it’s so close.

13000 vote lead for Biden in Ohio now. Biden isn’t winning there.

Only 31% of the early vote has been counted in Ohio.

Widye

Shelga wrote: »

I couldn't give a s**t about some working class white man in Pennsylvania whingeing because he's not the centre of the universe anymore.

I care about Trump pulling them out of the Paris Agreement.

The fact that this is remotely close is just horrific.

Think I'll go to bed.

Night x

breezy1985

Biden is losing Ohio now

The Iron Giant

So 59% of the early vote isn't in yet in Ohio.

And Biden is all about the early vote.

Yet its all over for Biden in Ohio.

Logic. Out the window.

Shelga

I couldn't give a s**t about some working class white man in Pennsylvania whingeing because he's not the centre of the universe anymore.

I care about Trump pulling them out of the Paris Agreement.

The fact that this is remotely close is just horrific.

Think I'll go to bed.

StringerBell

Only 41% of the early vote is in Ohio. Plenty of votes left out there for Biden potentially.

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

Exactly, so people should probably relax a little and not get too worked up, what it does seem to be guaranteed now that Biden couldn't take Florida is that this isn't going to be called tonight.

I know you’re right.

But I think I'm so upset because it’s so close.

13000 vote lead for Biden in Ohio now. Biden isn’t winning there.

letowski

North Carolina is going to Trump. Biden won't hold the 85k lead. With 3 or 4 Trump counties to come in and all the election day votes. I think the NYT have Trump 90% chance to win.

Panrich

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye Trump is going to hold everything up to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is where this will be decided, I have to admit I am rather pessimistic at this point.

I'd be worried about Michigan at this stage. The fact that Trump looks like holding FL, GA, NC and OH with margins well beyond the polls is a big worry for MI and indeed PA.

Francie Barrett

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump can only afford to lose a couple of states that he won in 2016 and that's what they're pointing out.

He isn't likely to lose any of them. Biden has some leads thanks to the early votes being counted first, but he's getting eaten alive as the counts go on.

Biden is looking like he HAS to win Wis/Mich/Penn now.

The Iron Giant

FatRat wrote: »

If you don't understand these betting markets you shouldn't comment in them, they are as close to perfect information as you can get

[...]

Granted this could still change, it's probability based and we are working with imperfect information.

Well that was quick 180.

Limpy

The boom will be back big time in America with Trump getting 4 more years. The voters agree.

namloc1980

It's a blue mirage instead of the predicted red mirage.

Brian?

murpho999 wrote: »

No he shouldn't as it's simply too early. Results not in from the key swing states that were always expected to be close.

Like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia.....?

StringerBell

marno21 wrote: »

This is a complete mess when we don't know what proportion of what States' votes are early/mail in. Look at Virginia - no way that's how it'll finish up.

Exactly, so people should probably relax a little and not get too worked up, what it does seem to be guaranteed now that Biden couldn't take Florida is that this isn't going to be called tonight.