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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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rosser44

Brian? wrote: »

Biden is done. As I said a million times I would be, I’m surprised but not shocked.

4 mores years of that absolute disgrace of a man.

If the Dems would just turn out and vote the GOP and their anti democracy agenda would be a distant memory:(

MurDawg

Ah jaysis biden Is dust isn't he

Ignacius

Real Donald Trump wrote: »

It's early yet, just started on the black bush :pac:

Protestant whisky

Brian?

murpho999 wrote: »

You're calling this far too early.

I know. I’m disgusted though. Sick of this.

Trump should be destroyed by now.

Canice Picklington

Trump will win all these swing states by less than 10k, won't he? The fix is in.

murpho999

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The CNN coverage is ludicrous. Apparently Biden has more options than Trump when he clearly is running out of them.

Trump can only afford to lose a couple of states that he won in 2016 and that's what they're pointing out.

virginmediapls

murpho999 wrote: »

The poster quoted Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker.

And what experts? I never see betting experts consulted on News shows for Election results.

Gamblers are not indicators of elections.

Actually, they are.

Betting markets have been a far more predictive metric of election winners than exit polls or early results.

When there is money to be made, predictions will be made well - and historically, they absolutely ARE.

extra gravy

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1323812517056040961?s=19

This.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Brian? wrote: »

Wait and see what exactly?

Have a guess? The votes you haven't cast maybe

Humberto Salazar

The bookies know. 4 more years folks. Goodnight!

FatRat

With 400m+ matched on Betfair and trump trading at 1.4 it's very obvious who is in the lead and most likely to win. If you don't understand these betting markets you shouldn't comment in them, they are as close to perfect information as you can get

Granted this could still change, it's probability based and we are working with imperfect information.

What I would say is how embarrassing the media is. It was the same way in 2016, complete denial of what's going on in front of them. Fox news is a joke but they are about the only outlet reporting real info at the moment.

murpho999

Brian? wrote: »

I know. I’m disgusted though. Sick of this.

Trump should be destroyed by now.

No he shouldn't as it's simply too early. Results not in from the key swing states that were always expected to be close.

Larbre34

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

The bookies know. 4 more years folks. Goodnight!

Screenshot.

marno21

This is a complete mess when we don't know what proportion of what States' votes are early/mail in. Look at Virginia - no way that's how it'll finish up.

virginmediapls

Regardless of who eventually stutters to victory here, it's a ****ing damning indictment on the population of the USA that this orange gowl got so many votes.

Inquitus

namloc1980 wrote: »

The lead is down to 60k now. 15 minutes ago it was 100k and there's 33% to be counted. Biden is goosed there.

Aye Trump is going to hold everything up to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is where this will be decided, I have to admit I am rather pessimistic at this point, as Biden needs to win all 3 if things carry on like this.

vafankillar

extra gravy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1323812517056040961?s=19

This.

The democrats chose a candidate who's no much different to their last candidate except he's older and has dementia lol? The stain is on them.

Larbre34

marno21 wrote: »

This is a complete mess when we don't know what proportion of what States' votes are early/mail in. Look at Virginia - no way that's how it'll finish up.

It'll just have to play out, the early vote is unprecedented and some Counties/States are in reverse order from what they would have previously. The patterns are off, we must wait till 100% in the battleground states.

J2CVC

murpho999 wrote: »

The poster quoted Paddy Power, an Irish bookmaker.

And what experts? I never see betting experts consulted on News shows for Election results.

Gamblers are not indicators of elections.

Man you're way out on this. Bookmakers follow the exchanges. They're all the same. If they're not people can hedge bets and guarantee a profit. Believe me the betting market is the best indicator you will find.

StringerBell

marno21 wrote: »

This is a complete mess when we don't know what proportion of what States' votes are early/mail in. Look at Virginia - no way that's how it'll finish up.

Exactly, so people should probably relax a little and not get too worked up, what it does seem to be guaranteed now that Biden couldn't take Florida is that this isn't going to be called tonight.

Brian?

murpho999 wrote: »

No he shouldn't as it's simply too early. Results not in from the key swing states that were always expected to be close.

Like Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia.....?

namloc1980

It's a blue mirage instead of the predicted red mirage.

Limpy

The boom will be back big time in America with Trump getting 4 more years. The voters agree.

The Iron Giant

FatRat wrote: »

If you don't understand these betting markets you shouldn't comment in them, they are as close to perfect information as you can get

[...]

Granted this could still change, it's probability based and we are working with imperfect information.

Well that was quick 180.

Francie Barrett

murpho999 wrote: »

Trump can only afford to lose a couple of states that he won in 2016 and that's what they're pointing out.

He isn't likely to lose any of them. Biden has some leads thanks to the early votes being counted first, but he's getting eaten alive as the counts go on.

Biden is looking like he HAS to win Wis/Mich/Penn now.

Panrich

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye Trump is going to hold everything up to Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which is where this will be decided, I have to admit I am rather pessimistic at this point.

I'd be worried about Michigan at this stage. The fact that Trump looks like holding FL, GA, NC and OH with margins well beyond the polls is a big worry for MI and indeed PA.

letowski

North Carolina is going to Trump. Biden won't hold the 85k lead. With 3 or 4 Trump counties to come in and all the election day votes. I think the NYT have Trump 90% chance to win.

Brian?

StringerBell wrote: »

Exactly, so people should probably relax a little and not get too worked up, what it does seem to be guaranteed now that Biden couldn't take Florida is that this isn't going to be called tonight.

I know you’re right.

But I think I'm so upset because it’s so close.

13000 vote lead for Biden in Ohio now. Biden isn’t winning there.

StringerBell

Only 41% of the early vote is in Ohio. Plenty of votes left out there for Biden potentially.

Shelga

I couldn't give a s**t about some working class white man in Pennsylvania whingeing because he's not the centre of the universe anymore.

I care about Trump pulling them out of the Paris Agreement.

The fact that this is remotely close is just horrific.

Think I'll go to bed.