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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

shocksy wrote: »

Biden has it in the bag.

Canice Picklington wrote: »

NY Times needle has Georgia at 83% Trump and North Carolina at 66% Trump.

It's happening again.

This thread might be pointless.

BonnieSituation

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If Biden failed to flip Florida, he is almost certainly not going to flip states like Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.

Biden is looking like he's not going to lose anything, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like they will be key.

Francie, will you look at the numbers rather than making rash points.

Ohio is likely to be flipped. GA less likely. TX will be close but will ultiately fall to Trump.

The Iron Giant

Expecting Texas to finish red but with 62% votes in, Biden still 220k votes up.

[Deleted User]

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If Biden failed to flip Florida, he is almost certainly not going to flip states like Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.

Biden is looking like he's not going to lose anything, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like they will be key.

Biden improved across Florida except in one county which is pretty unique not just in a Florida context but in a national context.

murpho999

Francie Barrett wrote: »

If Biden failed to flip Florida, he is almost certainly not going to flip states like Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.

Biden is looking like he's not going to lose anything, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like they will be key.

I think he has a great chance in Ohio.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts

Deleted User wrote: »

Florida worried me but everywhere else looks to be more closely following the polls now. Hopefully by around 3am it'll be called for Biden.

The odds on Paddy Power went to evens for Trump a while ago but have lengthened again.

Carfacemandog

Interesting little bit I noticed from Texas, which has swung back to level and should go to Trump as expected... but Biden is quite comfortably winning the border counties that are reporting this far.

There's a wall joke in here somewhere, but it's late and I'm tired.

EDIT: Biden back up by 4% with 60% reporting.

murpho999

kowloon wrote: »

The thing that's confusing me is how Indiana was declared with 8% of the expected vote. I asked in thread but only got one BS reply.

That's a Network projection based on polls and early results.

So you need to distinguish between Network Projections and actual results.

Francie Barrett

If Biden failed to flip Florida, he is almost certainly not going to flip states like Ohio, Georgia, or Texas.

Biden is looking like he's not going to lose anything, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like they will be key.

letowski

This is looking good for Biden. He is doing exactly what he needs to do in the rust belt. Dominate the suburbs. That's where Obama dominated and where Biden beat Bernie convincingly. And there is a huge amount of early vote to count.

North Carolina will get tighter as election day vote comes in, but Biden is doing what he needs to do.

Bloody Florida though. But at least the Miami Dade Cuban Hispanic vote won't translate in the rust belt. So thats good news for Biden.

BonnieSituation

kowloon wrote: »

The thing that's confusing me is how Indiana was declared with 8% of the expected vote. I asked in thread but only got one BS reply.

Indiana is as red as anything. You could have called Indiana for the Republicans for the 2020 election back in 2012.

StringerBell

Vital Transformation wrote: »

Biden doing a lot worse with Hispanics than Clinton did, not just in Florida, but also in Ohio and Georgia.

Where have we the numbers on that? Latino vote is his Achilles heel I accept that no problem but I'd like to see the numbers?

RedXIV

Still holding out for my dark horse

murpho999

Canice Picklington wrote: »

NY Times needle has Georgia at 83% Trump and North Carolina at 66% Trump.

It's happening again.

Biden is leading in all results so far in NC.

Georgia for Trump is predicted all the timeso I don't know what is happening again.

rosser44

Deleted User wrote: »

Florida worried me but everywhere else looks to be more closely following the polls now. Hopefully by around 3am it'll be called for Biden.

IMO texas is way more a measure for success than Florida for Biden

The Iron Giant

Only 29% of mail in votes in Ohio so far and Biden already 350k votes up. Looks good so far.

BonnieSituation

Canice Picklington wrote: »

NY Times needle has Georgia at 83% Trump and North Carolina at 66% Trump.

It's happening again.

Everyone should ignore NYT. Their coverage is awful. And that needle needs to die, even though they were saying they needed it for those 3 states. Awful.

alchemist33

murpho999 wrote: »

Yes, I know it's not PR.

But I'm just amazed how quick they get results out, not just projections.

As other said they must pre - count as the logistics of getting votes out of boxes post, etc is time consuming.

Some states have been pre-counting and some aren't at all.

Vital Transformation

Biden doing a lot worse with Hispanics than Clinton did, not just in Florida, but also in Ohio and Georgia.

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

An nbc exit poll suggest that moderates have swung heavily to Lindsay Graham’s democratic opponent.

Graham is leading by 10k atm

StringerBell

Less positive numbers when they have just said that it's 97% early vote in NC.

[Deleted User]

kowloon wrote: »

The thing that's confusing me is how Indiana was declared with 8% of the expected vote. I asked in thread but only got one BS reply.

Because it's just common sense. Some states are "called" the second the polls close. It's unofficial and different outlets do it at different points.

murpho999

Shelga wrote: »

No but they have machines to do the count, and it's not proportional representation so it's much faster (is my understanding).

Yes, I know it's not PR.

But I'm just amazed how quick they get results out, not just projections.

As other said they must pre - count as the logistics of getting votes out of boxes post, etc is time consuming.

Timberrrrrrrr

If Biden flips ohio its over for Trump

Retr0gamer

Houston, austin and dallas becoming big tech hubs might have changed the urban vote in texas.

kowloon

Brian? wrote: »

Some is early voting. Most states use voting machines. Each state decides how they do it themselves.

The thing that's confusing me is how Indiana was declared with 8% of the expected vote. I asked in thread but only got one BS reply.

Shelga

Raving_Magic wrote: »

Ohio looking good for Biden and shocking numbers for Texas.

50% in and still in favour of Biden. Surely that is got to change

Wishing I had placed my bet on Biden taking Texas now... still seems mental if it goes blue though!

StringerBell

Raving_Magic wrote: »

Ohio looking good for Biden and shocking numbers for Texas.

50% in and still in favour of Biden. Surely that is got to change

It will yeah, like Virginia will flip colour and Kansas too I'd wager.

[Deleted User]

Itssoeasy wrote: »

An nbc exit poll suggest that moderates have swung heavily to Lindsay Graham’s democratic opponent.

Stop, I'm starting to dream. :pac:

Raving_Magic

Ohio looking good for Biden and shocking numbers for Texas.

50% in and still in favour of Biden. Surely that is got to change