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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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awec

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yup, the home of Democracy.

Oh, they don’t seem to be exit polls in the same sense as what we call exit polls.

They’re just polling voter concerns and motivations.

martingriff

Itssoeasy wrote: »

When you open the cnn iPhone app there’s a part that says watch now: CNN’s full coverage of Election Day. Dont click the watch tv thing in the top right corner. On the ipad it’s the first square on the left. And I’ve checked they do work.

Ya was just wondering that as I was clicking in it and looking at the tv and was not the same. Does it matter if its Edition or International

[Deleted User]

Panrich wrote: »

I have been watching the markets on betfair on and off all day.

Trump was trading at 1.73-1.75 at 2pm today. Biden was at 2.36

From about 9pm Trump has been backed by large amounts and as we speak he is trading at 1.56. Biden is trading at 2.84.

You may not be aware of the market liquidity in betfair but it is very efficient and trends are not to be ignored lightly. It is not like your neighbourhood bookie who sets his price by sticking his finger into the air.

You're talking s**te

Trump has not been below 3 all day, not been below 2 for a few months now and currently at 3.1

Actually Trump's low since the market started is 1.64

martingriff

human 19 wrote: »

Anybody else want to guess the number of electoral votes for the winner ? Im going 340 to350 for Biden ,but I hope its more .

It will be 305 at most but would not be surprised in the 290's

Faugheen

Hard to read anything into these exit polls since it’s only polling people who voted today.

MikeSoys

martingriff wrote: »

It will be 305 at most but would not be surprised in the 290's

I've being watching markets and tech info.. Trump will get reelected imo

(

Panrich

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

You're talking s**te

Trump has not been below 3 all day, not been below 2 for a few months now and currently at 3.1

I am talking about Florida and have been all along. Please don't make any further errors when you want to insult someone.

Also just seen on CNN that Biden officials now say that Florida will be a tough lift. Is he talking ****e too?

martingriff

embraer170 wrote: »

Are you sure it is a live stream?

When I click on "CNN’s full coverage of Election Day", I get an error message saying the content is no longer available and it starts playing a stream that is 12 hours old.

Are you in the American or International part (you can change in settings) It has to be international

Seanachai

Is Bitchute down for everybody?

Francie Barrett

Some numbers from Florida.

FLORIDA, 4:40 PM UPDATE

Republican: 4,149,144 (+191,876)
Democratic: 3,957,268
NPA/Other: 2,597,260

TOTAL: 10,703,672

*Includes ALL mail + in-person early
*Missing E-day votes: DeSoto, Hardee, Jefferson, Monroe, Seminole, Union
*only 2pm update from miami dade

Not all the numbers are in (but most are), so take them with a pinch of salt, but this is looking good for Trump. If 2016 voting patterns were to be repeated (Republicans not transferring their vote to Democrats), NPA's splitting evenly down the middle, then Trump is actually ahead of where Clinton was in 2016. Of course, people are expecting the independent votes to fall some way to Biden, but being 200k down would require a decent swing.

martingriff

MikeSoys wrote: »

I've being watching markets and tech info.. Trump will get reelected imo (

It will be close all right

[Deleted User]

Panrich wrote: »

I am talking about Florida and have been all along. Please don't make any further errors when you want to insult someone.

Also just seen on CNN that Biden officials now say that Florida will be a tough lift. Is he talking ****e too?

Can't see a specific market for FL, or any other state on Betfair (well on the app anyway)

Send us a screenshot will you ?

MikeSoys

Seanachai wrote: »

Is Bitchute down for everybody?

It's part of the PURGE election year

Navanboyo

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

You're talking s**te

Trump has not been below 3 all day, not been below 2 for a few months now and currently at 3.1

Actually Trump's low since the market started is 1.64

To be fair to the poster the odds he is talking about is to win Florida, not the overall. Trump is shortening to win Florida all evening.

MikeSoys

I'm switching between CNN and Fox.. Its like sticking your hand between the hot and cold taps... fox has nicer looking graphics though

[Deleted User]

Navanboyo wrote: »

To be fair to the poster the odds he is talking about is to win Florida, not the overall. Trump is shortening to win Florida all evening.

Yea that's fair enough alright.

Panrich

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Can't see a specific market for FL, or any other state on Betfair (well on the app anyway)

Send us a screenshot will you ?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170351364

Look I'm not rejoicing about this because I have actually put over €50 on Biden to win Florida and it's looking very dodgy. I have been betting on the exchanges for years and when I see moves like this I am very disheartened. Click on the graph to see the trends.

ArmaniJeanss

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Can't see a specific market for FL, or any other state on Betfair (well on the app anyway)

Send us a screenshot will you ?

This is Florida on oddschecker.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/presidential-state-winner/florida
Panrich is correct about the trends there over the last few hours.

Itssoeasy

Seems like the cnn app has stopped showing live coverage and apparently there was a difference between the coverage. I think cnn on the link I posted still works.

Edit: the link I posted is and it supports Picture in Picture which is good.

GLaDOS

Anyone looking for CNN, they have it here: https://livenewstime.com/

Go to Watch Live and you have a choice of Fox, MSNBC and CNN

letowski

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Some numbers from Florida.

Not all the numbers are in (but most are), so take them with a pinch of salt, but this is looking good for Trump. If 2016 voting patterns were to be repeated (Republicans not transferring their vote to Democrats), NPA's splitting evenly down the middle, then Trump is actually ahead of where Clinton was in 2016. Of course, people are expecting the independent votes to fall some way to Biden, but being 200k down would require a decent swing.

I disagree, if the splits roughly remain true, Biden will win. GOPs ED gains will dwindle in FL as the day goes on traditionally. Obviously this is too early, but I think the advantage is still with Biden.

kowloon

ELM327 wrote: »

It's the closest I'm going to get to a party that aligns to my viewpoints.
I'm not anti immigration (in an Aussie sense), I'm pro choice, pro LGBTQ rights etc.

That's the issue, you end up having to back someone who is against at least some of your own views.
I have beliefs that would piss off people on both 'sides' here.
The one advantage in Ireland is you can vote for more than two parties without considering it a wasted vote, even if the choice isn't great.

Navanboyo

Panrich wrote: »

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170351364

Look I'm not rejoicing about this because I have actually put over €50 on Biden to win Florida and it's looking very dodgy. I have been betting on the exchanges for years and when I see moves like this I am very disheartened. Click on the graph to see the trends.

He has shortened alright but is still backable at 1.56 and there has been 800k matched in bets. That price though to me means any result is possible as it is not short enough to take the result as certain.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323734067246960645

Throw a bit of caution at exit polls.

BorneTobyWilde

Guy on CNN, People will vote for Kermit the Frog over Donald Trump.

Their tears will be extra sour this time round I feel.

martingriff

Also for those on the CNN app make sure you are on the right region

MikeSoys

Seanachai wrote: »

Is Bitchute down for everybody?

It's back online... For the moment

listermint

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Guy on CNN, People will vote for Kermit the Frog over Donald Trump.

Their tears will be extra sour this time round I feel.

What will happen to all the trump accounts setup over the last few years here

Disappear into the night or move on to lockdown like Farage has...

Itssoeasy

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Guy on CNN, People will vote for Kermit the Frog over Donald Trump.

Their tears will be extra sour this time round I feel.

Well that’s van Jones who is a never trumper even though I think that term is stupid. Honestly these exit polls are about as useful as a glass hammer. They aren’t votes.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323752684894171136

A big pinch of salt now...