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US Presidential Election 2020 Thread II - Judgement Day(s)

Quin_Dub

Continuation thread from here

All existing rules still stand.

Everyone will want to be active in this thread over the next few days , but there will be zero tolerance for Forum rule breaches.

Keep it Sensible , Civil and Polite please.

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Professor Moriarty

DK224 wrote: »

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

Would you have a link for this?

SimonTemplar

The Michigan Attorney General mentioned on Twitter of numerous reports of robocalls in Flint saying that people should vote tomorrow because the lines are too long.

An obvious attempt to suppress the vote.

bennyl10

DK224 wrote: »

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

Any link?

Clearly not counting mail or early too!

Florida is gonna be a very interesting watch tonight!

AllForIt

There was a guy interviewed on UK radio last night who was involved with the only polling in the US that called it correctly in 2016.

On the question of the Dems taking Texas, (some are saying by a landslide) that he never heard anything more ridiculous, there isn't a hope of anything like that happening. He lives in Texas.

DK224

The early data from Florida, Wisconsin and Arizona is showing an absolutely massive GOP turnout. They lead by 9k votes across Florida, the 117k early voting cushion the Dems had was wiped out in 2 hours this morning.

BonnieSituation

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well we don’t get nbc or msnbc or Fox in Ireland. I’m sure all Channels will have an option on their dedicated apps(cnn did in the 2018 mid term elections) so we shall see.

All of the main US networks will likely have a dedicated Youtube channel.

Sky News and RTÉ will probably use a CBS/NBC feed at some point too.

I have a Roku with the CBS app and an android IPTV box so I'm well covered with options.

duploelabs

ELM327 wrote: »

Showing that he wouldnt be an antisemite. Same as the relocation to Jerusalem would show.
In fact Trump and his base would be closer to Zionists than antisemites.

Yes, calling people who said 'Jews will not replace us' fine people is certainly antisemitic

BonnieSituation

ELM327 wrote: »

Luckily for you there is
https://www.politicalcompass.org/

So you have no specific definition in mind when you (over) use that word. I guess that's good to know.

Francie Barrett

briany wrote: »

We don't know if Democrats vote for the Democrat or the Republicans for the Republican. Certainly they tend to lean very heavily for their party's candidate in most situations, but with the number of prominent Republicans publicly declaring an, if only temporary, support of Biden, we see that people can break from party affiliation.

Given Republican tactics to suppress the vote, it appears they agree with what Conservative activist Paul Weyrich said in the 1980s,

"I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."

So, my suspicion is that a high turnout does not bode well for Trump.

4% of Republicans voted for Clinton in 2016, 5% of Democrats voted for Trump. The net result was they probably cancelled each other out. I really struggle to see too many Trump voters in 2016 switching sides this time. We heard the same thing last time, how some Republicans were disgusted with Trump and would switch. It never materialized then, and I don't see it happening now.

The key is going to be the non affiliated voters. In 2016 they were pretty evenly split between Trump and Clinton. In a tight race like Florida, a 10% swing here could be just enough to flip Florida for Biden.

This is obviously very early days, but the trend so far doesn't look too dissimilar to 2016.

BonnieSituation

letowski wrote: »

Steve Schale did a very good numbers breakdown of the state of play in Florida heading into tomorrow:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2020/11/2/here-we-are.html

A worthwhile read of the voter demographics in Florida and what to look out for. He is a good follow on Twitter, for people looking for early insights tomorrow.

That was a great read.

Thoroughly recommended for those who haven't read it.

TP_CM

Tell me how wrote: »

Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?

I think the vast majority of them would know he traveled 5 states in the space of 24 hours. He probably got about 5 hours sleep in the last 48.

Tell me how

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

Hard to plan to that level of accuracy.

Good guidelines here.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/02/us-election-2020-presidential-what-time-results-guide

An Ciarraioch

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

By 1 a.m, the earliest data from Florida, North Carolina and Georgia will be in - unlikely to be a clear winner in the first, but if Biden wins any of the three, then most of the swing states will follow suit.

everlast75

Inquitus wrote: »

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

which day?

Inquitus

What time should I set my alarm for in the hope of an earlyish result? 2am? 3am?

briany

Francie Barrett wrote: »

There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.

We don't know if Democrats vote for the Democrat or the Republicans for the Republican. Certainly they tend to lean very heavily for their party's candidate in most situations, but with the number of prominent Republicans publicly declaring an, if only temporary, support of Biden, we see that people can break from party affiliation.

Given Republican tactics to suppress the vote, it appears they agree with what Conservative activist Paul Weyrich said in the 1980s,

"I don't want everybody to vote. Elections are not won by a majority of the people. They never have been from the beginning of our country and they are not now. As a matter of fact, our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down."

So, my suspicion is that a high turnout does not bode well for Trump.

Francie Barrett

There's a live data feed of the turnout in Florida, here's the specific link to Pinellas County, which switched red last time and is viewed as a bellweather.

Democrats had a lead before polling stations opened, but it's shrinking all morning. Democrats percentage of the votes cast is 38.5% as of typing this.

https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=pin

In 2016, Republicans cast 38.7% of the votes in Florida last time, Democrats cast 38.1%

My initial read is that both the Republicans and Democrats have both been able to get the vote out with neither side appearing to benefit significantly so far. It looks like Florida will be decided by the non-affiliated voters.

Tell me how

circadian wrote: »

He sounds rough, definitely deflated but sounds like he's got a cold or hasn't shaken the Covid completely.

Surely that guy can't end the day winning the election to remain President of the US.

He sounded like he had spent the night drinking (I know he doesn't drink) after being heavily defeated.

How many Republicans listening to that over breakfast would be enthused to go and vote?

[Deleted User]

everlast75 wrote: »

Calling Matt Gaets Rick Gates, callin Lil Pump, Little Pimp, not being able to walk down a ramp properly, taking two hands to sip a glass of water.

Only one person has credible medical records and Trump isn't him.

We could play this all day.

Anyhoo - he was on Fox this morning sounding very very deflated.

He sounds rough, definitely deflated but sounds like he's got a cold or hasn't shaken the Covid completely.

ancapailldorcha

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Back on topic please.

Posts deleted. No betting talk please.

everlast75

weldoninhio wrote: »

Mixing up Teresa May and Thatcher, mixing up Trump with Bush, 120m dead from Covid, etc

Calling Matt Gaets Rick Gates, callin Lil Pump, Little Pimp, not being able to walk down a ramp properly, taking two hands to sip a glass of water.

Only one person has credible medical records and Trump isn't him.

We could play this all day.

Anyhoo - he was on Fox this morning sounding very very deflated.

ancapailldorcha

Back on topic please.

weldoninhio

MJohnston wrote: »

I haven't seen anything to suggest that, he certainly looks a lot more energetic than Trump, although they're both clearly old men.

But I'd imagine a campaign schedule would have anyone feeling unwell. Trump sounded very bad on Fox News today, but I'm sure that's just overexertion rather than his Covid flaring up again.

Mixing up Teresa May and Thatcher, mixing up Trump with Bush, 120m dead from Covid, etc

amadangomor

MJohnston wrote: »

FF are only left-wing in an American sense. FF are centre-right for most things and Leo has FG heading off to the far right.

Here's a good couple of maps for you:

Ah ffs, neither FF or FG are anywhere close to that far right. That chart is from some weird social media fantasy.

We have one of the most generous social welfare systems after decades of FF and fG in power. How the fudge does happen if they are anywhere near that far right?

Christy42

weldoninhio wrote: »

Think Trump will win. But as a bet I picked Harris as next President. Anyone else think Biden looked a bit wobbly/unwell on the campaign trail?? If he does win will he make it to next February in full fettle??

They said the same about Hilary 4 years ago and she is still going strong. Tired old bit. Biden was in fine form speaking with Obama the other night with one of his best performances.

MJohnston

weldoninhio wrote: »

Think Trump will win. But as a bet I picked Harris as next President. Anyone else think Biden looked a bit wobbly/unwell on the campaign trail?? If he does win will he make it to next February in full fettle??

I haven't seen anything to suggest that, he certainly looks a lot more energetic than Trump, although they're both clearly old men.

But I'd imagine a campaign schedule would have anyone feeling unwell. Trump sounded very bad on Fox News today, but I'm sure that's just overexertion rather than his Covid flaring up again.

Manic Moran

Water John wrote: »

The Florida system of having the mail in already counted and released immediately after close of vote is much better.

Depends on what is most important to you. If you want Florida results in early so you don't have to wait to late at night to find out who won the election, sure. There may be an argument about counting before a fire in the warehouse destroys them.

On the other hand, States like Wisconsin or Michigan consider voting day to be the day of ultimate choice and allow you to cancel your ballot before it is opened on voting day, and vote again if you decide on the basis of new information to change your mind.

Not as clear cut.

seamus

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

in 2016 there was 7 people there and 2 of those were for Trump

And 4 were for Clinton!

It was amusing reading about these little towns. There's a second one about 5km south of Dixville Notch, that's heavily Republican, and has 21 voters out of 22 people. It backed Trump 16 to 5 this morning.

Odd how you see such polarised differences in tiny areas. That said, 10 of those 21 registered voters are over 65.

I suspect many of these tiny townships are just extended families living within close proximity to eachother and nobody else. So of course one would expect them all to vote similarly.

Widdensushi

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Can we get back to US elections please

First town (of 5 people) announce unanimous result for Biden
https://www.9news.com.au/world/dixville-notch-first-town-in-america-to-vote-new-hampshire-ballot-cast-results/c3e78d61-5b79-4f0d-9360-b88af9118678

in 2016 there was 7 people there and 2 of those were for Trump

Did they murder them?

weldoninhio

Tell me how wrote: »

Inauguration is in January.

Same difference.