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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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cnocbui

That article is pay walled.

I am fed up hearing about all these supposedly vacant houses. I want to see advocates of their existense and suitability to go find 20 of them, post pics and specs and then make their case. Not just look at some numbers on a screen and invent fairy stories of lovely turn-key properties, good to go, hoarded by misers and property price manipulators..

If, as I suspect, they require significant capital injections to make them habitable, then they aren't exactly what people are making them out to be.

combat14

hard to believe that 15% of properties (200,000) are still vacant in the state .. it really looks as if property prices are currently being kept artificially inflated

David McWilliams: A plan to put Ireland’s 200,000 vacant buildings to use

During the most acute housing crisis we have faced, close to 15% of properties are vacant

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/david-mcwilliams-a-plan-to-put-ireland-s-200-000-vacant-buildings-to-use-1.4394673?mode=amp

Pelezico

Idbatterim wrote: »

And where can i go go tell me exactly what will happen? Someome with a crystal ball ?

Everybody here will tell you exactly what will happen. Then we come back next year and start the process all over again.

By iteration, the right answer is reached by everyone at the end of the year.

Marius34

KennisWhale wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1030/1174874-planning-permission/

A sign of a strong pipeline for the housing market and perhaps the beginning of a significant shift away from hotels and commercial property towards residential property by investors.

This is a good news. I see it's going to the right direction.
If we see stable property market, price wise, for coming years, it may ramp up construction, creating more competition on supply side. Stable price could result in lower interest rates, and better affordability.

Mic 1972

fliball123 wrote: »

Here is a link to the different schemes and how you can see which one suits the particular landlord best

https://www.housingagency.ie/housing-information/information-property-owners-and-landlords

I wonder how they are going to calculate the Open Market Rent to which 80-85% is applied

KennisWhale

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1030/1174874-planning-permission/

Planning permissions for apartments have exceeded those for houses for the first time in the country's history, according to the first report from the Office of Planning Regulator (OPR).

There were 40,252 residential units granted permission last year throughout the country with apartments making up 51% of the total.

A sign of a strong pipeline for the housing market and perhaps the beginning of a significant shift away from hotels and commercial property towards residential property by investors.

Graham

Mod Note

ok folks, I think we're heading way off-topic again. Please start a separate thread to discuss the recommendations of the EAG.

Do not reply to this post.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t know what you mean. I would assume a report relating to human rights, asylum, administration, other jurisdictions involves a lot more than a cost benefit analysis. I would think junior cert students would know that.

The only recommendation of this very lengthy and very expensive government commissioned report was HAP for asylum seekers. A simple cost/benefit analysis of this one recommendation would have dismissed it before it was published and they would have been advised to start again and arrive at other recommendations that don’t impact on the supply/demand dynamics of our cities, which is apparently why SF got so many votes in the last election.

A very lazy report that doesn’t address the problems of direct provision without creating other problems in the private rental market in Dublin.

All this report recommends is more of the same type of policies that led to protests in villages up and down the country.

The only group the recommendations of this report helps are landlords.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

I take it you’re someone who may be intending to take advantage if the “recommendations” of this report are implemented?

I’m sure you would agree that any junior certificate level cost/benefit analysis of the recommendations would dismiss their conclusions immediately?

I don’t know what you mean. I would assume a report relating to human rights, asylum, administration, other jurisdictions involves a lot more than a cost benefit analysis. I would think junior cert students would know that.

Idbatterim

Pelezico wrote: »

This thread has been addressing this subject for almost a year now. You can start on page one and by the time you get to the end, I doubt it very much if you are any wiser.

And where can i go go tell me exactly what will happen? Someome with a crystal ball ?

Idbatterim

dor843088 wrote: »

Droves of apartments lying empty, government buying up the new builds and leasing copious amounts for social housing. When or where will this house of cards end? I think the only difference between now and 2007 is the government has taken the place of the reckless investor . The same people will pay for it though.

The government now is the largest vulture fund in the state...

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I was merely asking a question. The stupidity, and offensiveness of some of your posts, would be amusing if you weren’t actually trying to be serious.

I take it you’re someone who may be intending to take advantage if the “recommendations” of this report are implemented?

I’m sure you would agree that any junior certificate level cost/benefit analysis of the recommendations would dismiss their conclusions immediately?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if you believe the new government proposal to replace direct provision with HAP for apartments and houses in our cities is not going to result in the state competing with private renters in areas of high demand you’re entitled to that opinion.

I was merely asking a question. The stupidity, and offensiveness of some of your posts, would be amusing if you weren’t actually trying to be serious.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

So not a government proposal.

Not a government policy.

Recommendations by an expert group submitted to the government for consideration.

Mod Hat On

Stop deliberately misrepresenting facts.

No problem. Just like HAP was a short-term, interim measure when it was introduced a few years ago.

No more discussing Rebuilding Ireland on this forum either I assume?

Graham

So not a government proposal.

Not a government policy.

Recommendations by an expert group submitted to the government for consideration.

Mod Hat On

Stop deliberately misrepresenting facts.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

from who?

As per RTE last week:

“The Expert Advisory Group, which has reviewed the Direct Provision process, has recommended that a new permanent system be established no later than mid-2023.

the group's recommendation that a scheme similar to HAP be set up for asylum seekers.”

Link here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1021/1172990-direct-provision-report/

You can dress it up all you want but the state writes the terms of reference of any report the state requests so all reports are written to agree with whatever policy the state intends to eventually pursue.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Did I not mention it was a proposal?

from who?

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Weren't you corrected on that last time?

Did I not mention it was a proposal?

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if you don’t believe the new government proposal to replace direct provision with HAP for apartments and houses

Weren't you corrected on that last time?

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

What about direct provision? You were keen to link direct provision with government policy to keep property prices high.

Well, if you believe the new government proposal to replace direct provision with HAP for apartments and houses in our cities is not going to result in the state competing with private renters in areas of high demand you’re entitled to that opinion.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Don’t worry, FG (social welfare cheats cheat us all) have plans to bail them all out:

“Council interested in acquiring planned 15-storey building if price is right”

I wonder if by ‘price is right’, they mean the same or better deal the local council in Dundrum got for the Herbert Hill apartments:

“The Herbert Hill apartments are now set to be used as social housing with the council reportedly paying monthly rents of some €2,000 for one-bed apartments, €2,500 for two-bed units and €3,000 for three-bed units.”

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-seeks-to-use-docklands-tower-block-for-social-housing-1.4393441?mode=amp

What about direct provision? You were keen to link direct provision with government policy to keep property prices high.

PropQueries

Ozark707 wrote: »

And remember that was written just before Covid struck here. We all know what happened in the STL market since then. With rents for 1/2 beds down almost 20% since then it will make those vacant places even more unattractive rent wise. Who on earth is going to pay those sorts of rates now?

Don’t worry, FG (social welfare cheats cheat us all) have plans to bail them all out:

“Council interested in acquiring planned 15-storey building if price is right”

Link to Irish Times article today here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/dublin-city-council-seeks-to-use-docklands-tower-block-for-social-housing-1.4393441?mode=amp

I wonder if by ‘price is right’, they mean the same or better deal the local council in Dundrum got for the Herbert Hill apartments:

“The Herbert Hill apartments are now set to be used as social housing with the council reportedly paying monthly rents of some €2,000 for one-bed apartments, €2,500 for two-bed units and €3,000 for three-bed units.”

cubatahavana

random_banter wrote: »

This is good to know. We had a look around the development but they hiked the original prices from 530-560k between when we first enquired and when the first phase was released so we’re less inclined now.

I’ve seen these being much more heavily promoted recently so wondering if they’re finding it hard to shift them?

We’re looking in South Dublin and the supply seems to have gotten lower and lower while each house we’ve seen goes quickly and with a bidding war. It’s getting quite tiring but we’re thinking we’ll wait till the dust of this global shi*testorm settles at this point.

And thanks to those who answered my query about the PPR.

Actually, after having a look at the sitemap, it looks like 10% of the total houses. They are just bundled together

Ozark707

PropQueries wrote: »

It wasn’t a tabloid. It was the Sunday Business Post in February 2020 (pre-Covid):

“The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin”

Link to Sunday Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c

And remember that was written just before Covid struck here. We all know what happened in the STL market since then. With rents for 1/2 beds down almost 20% since then it will make those vacant places even more unattractive rent wise. Who on earth is going to pay those sorts of rates now?

dor843088

Droves of apartments lying empty, government buying up the new builds and leasing copious amounts for social housing. When or where will this house of cards end? I think the only difference between now and 2007 is the government has taken the place of the reckless investor . The same people will pay for it though.

PropQueries

silver2020 wrote: »

I think one tabloid (or the indo which is tabloid in all but style) had some sensationalist report about unrented apartments.

It was debunked within days.

It wasn’t a tabloid. It was the Sunday Business Post in February 2020 (pre-Covid):

“The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin”

Link to Sunday Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c

random_banter

brisan wrote: »

Most new developments would have more than than the legal minimum of social housing ,some substantially more

This is good to know. We had a look around the development but they hiked the original prices from 530-560k between when we first enquired and when the first phase was released so we’re less inclined now.

I’ve seen these being much more heavily promoted recently so wondering if they’re finding it hard to shift them?

We’re looking in South Dublin and the supply seems to have gotten lower and lower while each house we’ve seen goes quickly and with a bidding war. It’s getting quite tiring but we’re thinking we’ll wait till the dust of this global shi*testorm settles at this point.

And thanks to those who answered my query about the PPR.

brisan

cubatahavana wrote: »

That’s a good few houses going for social. It’s not a big development

Most new developments would have more than than the legal minimum of social housing ,some substantially more

cubatahavana

awec wrote: »

Usually it is the houses bought for social housing.

That’s a good few houses going for social. It’s not a big development

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

Those are for rent. It doesn't mean that they are vacant for years purposely.

The post I replied to said quite specifically unrented apartments
A lot of those apartments are left vacant on purpose because the owners do not want to drop the rental price
Dropping the rental price reduces the book price of the asset