dor843088 wrote: » https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff
fliball123 wrote: » We may not have had the fallout yet but the event is definitely here just try and go to for a pint and you will see .. You could be right but I still think it is 12 months away due to the budget keeping money in peoples pockets
Deleted User wrote: » And how many people have stopped paying their mortgages. As we know non payers dont get evicted very easily in this country. But surely this problem cant be swept under the carpet over the long term.
Timing belt wrote: » https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.
PropQueries wrote: » Q3 2020 DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET REVIEW from Owen Reilly: Owen Reilly have released their Q3 transactional analysis on the Dublin residential market in Q3 2020:Key findings: - Selling prices 1.2% below asking prices - Sales transactions up 21% compared to Q2 - 65% of our buyers are owner occupiers- 42% of our sellers are landlords exiting the market - Rents have fallen 11.7% since March Link to report here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q3-2020-dublin-residential-market-review/
JimmyVik wrote: » The landlord exodus gathers pace. I think any that missed that window to sell are stuck now until after Christmas. If they miss that window they might be stuck forever
fliball123 wrote: » Why are they stuck till after xmas?
JimmyVik wrote: » Well I doubt sales are going to be business as usual during level 5. Then you have Christmas.Notice periods are going to be all over the place too.
Roberto_gas wrote: » Until demand dies nothing is going to change ! Right now demand is what is keeping the market stable....Supply is never going to improve ! How can demand decrease ? 1) Job lossed and mass emigration like 2010 - Dont know where people will go as covid is a different ball game 2) Worldwide depression resulting in ppl losing jobs etc - We are possibly in one, but until gov keep giving out doles bailouts etc nothing is going to change A big trigger can only change things in next one year ! Until then i dont see any major drops in prices !
fliball123 wrote: » They didn't stop the last time there was a lockdown I know the number of properties that sold during the last lockdown was way down but there were still properties moving. There are still properties being put on the market and there is still viewings going on for example viewing today and I rang and they asked me what time I could make it over as they are staggering the viewingshttps://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-rosemount-estate-dundrum-dublin-14/4459856 Solicitors and banks are still open and working so there will still be people doing business with regard to property but they will be down at the same level as the last lockdown.
Donald Trump wrote: » Sure Anglo only had a temporary liquidity problem (said tongue-in-cheek) 1 in 25 mortgages were not being paid, but were not counted as being in default because they were on a break. The mortgaged amounts of those on the break would have been slightly higher on average than the average across the portfolio. Some of them could probably have been continued to be paid, but some might not.The saving grace for the banks this time around, at least initially, compared to the last crash is that the borrower will absorb the first losses from any writedown in values. No 110% mortgages. That in itself might prevent the snowball effect that we saw last time around.
PropQueries wrote: » Don't be so sure. Those boom time loans are still impacting on the banks and many still need to be resolved. Especially those interest only loans that are maturing shortly. "PTSB signalled in February that it was assessing risks associated with thousands of buy-to-let mortgages, amounting to €2.5 billion, that were handed out before the crash and were issued on interest-only terms until the loans matured. After the transaction, PTSB will continue to have €900 million of interest-only buy-to-let loans on its balance sheet. Mr Crowley said that, unlike the loans being sold, the loans being kept were typically to customers who had other business with the bank." The question is how do they handle these loans once they mature as none of the capital has been paid off? Probably another sale to some fund but what they get for them (even if performing) will depend on the direction of the property market over the next 12-24 months. They got very very lucky with this weeks sale IMO. Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ptsb-plays-down-ulster-bank-talk-as-it-sells-1-4bn-of-loans-1.4392203
Timing belt wrote: » When these interest only loans mature then the individuals will need to either take out another mortgage to pay off the loan, Use savings to repay, sell the house to repay or default and then go through the process of reposing the house and selling it. Why would a fund be interested in purchasing something like this? As I have explained to you time and time again the funds are interested in purchasing the debt not the property.
JJJackal wrote: » If these loans are not defaulting it is unlikely the bank is losing money on them (although its unlikely that they are highly profitable if tracker based) These properties are likely worth close to what was paid for them - if the borrower has continued to repay all these years - it is improbable that they will suddenly default 12 plus years after the crash? Presumably a significant proportion will have a clear exit strategy. These are not borrowers who have been distressed for years
PropQueries wrote: » When they look to remortgage, they won't be able to (IMO) and the fund will take control of the properties.
Graham wrote: » Would it be fair to say you're just guessing and you really have no idea how the banks will approach such cases?
PropQueries wrote: » Isn't that the point of a property forum board. Making educated guesses based on the data currently available to us.
PropQueries wrote: » Isn't that the point of a property forum board. Making educated guesses based on the data currently available to us. Just like there would be no need for court cases if everyone knew the outcome before it happened... My 'educated guess' on how the banks will approach these interest-only buy-to-let loans when they mature is that the borrower may not be able to re-mortgage so they will have to sell them at a loss. These are Celtic Tiger property plays and the rental payments (should rents fall by 50% over the next 2 years) won't cover the principal and interest repayments if the borrower has no other income to make up the shortfall. Would you re-mortgage in such a scenario when such a borrower cannot meet the repayments going forward? You would have to take charge of the underlying asset in such a scenario as such a borrower would be defaulting on month one of any re-mortgage term.
Graham wrote: » Educated guess would suggest there's something behind the guesses. If that's the case, it's a good idea to share what the something is.
PropQueries wrote: » From Irish Independent in 2017 when everyone thought house prices and rents were going to keep increasing for the next 20 years. Times have changed since then?: "Day of reckoning looms for those who took out interest-only mortgages in boom era". Worth a read as you appear to believe all those Celtic Tiger interest-only buy-to-let mortgages are all fine. The situation in the UK is in the first half of the article and then Ireland in the second half. Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/day-of-reckoning-looms-for-those-who-took-out-interest-only-mortgages-in-boom-era-35970364.html
Timing belt wrote: » Banks would have proactively been managing this for a while explaining to customers the consequences and trying to move them over to a principal and interest mortgage. Any of the BTL should have sufficient money from there rental income to repay. Yes some will be in difficulty but it is not a total collapse as you predict.
PropQueries wrote: » Rents have only being rising significantly each year for each of the past 6 years. They also paid tax on that rental income. Many are small business owners who were hoping to rely on these investment properties for their pension. Even if most did save all the rental income (as you appear to believe), they will have to re-mortgage over the next 20 years on a principal and interest basis at probably in excess of 5% and on the property price they paid back in 2006/2007. You're also expecting rents to keep at todays level for the duration of the new mortgage term. That's very doubtful in my opinion.
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