Timing belt wrote: » If the majority thought there was a property crash coming they would be frantically trying to sell their property and exit. The fact transactions are down shows that this is not the case.
PropQueries wrote: » Of course not. Property is highly illiquid. But transactions are well down which doesn't bode well for the future direction of the property market. As many have said here before, the only ones able to purchase are multinational employees and similar workers etc. who haven't been impacted by Covid-19. Where are all these buyers if transactions are down. Plus there's only so many workers who aren't impacted that actually do require to purchase a home. The supply of these non-impacted covid-19 workers seeking to purchase a home is not unlimited.
PropQueries wrote: » But isn't that the definition of a 'forced sale' that many here have being saying is different this time i.e. prices can't drop much as there will be little forced sales to force a drop in values? Another group selling are the pension funds e.g. Aviva and Zurich in Ireland blocked redemptions from their commercial property funds back in January (pre-covid) and are now selling several office buildings in Dublin in order to meet these redemption requests. These are only a few we know about. So, the big investors are selling. The pension funds are selling. Who will buy them?
fliball123 wrote: » Well we will have to wait and see. I honestly thought 6 months ago we would of seen a drop of 5 maybe 10% but it just hasnt happened and the points I made would make me believe that the drop will not happen for another 12 months..But god knows what will happen between now and then
PropQueries wrote: » All good points. It's the last one, although in jest, that may end up being a very accurate prophecy (maybe not in the next 12 months though)
fliball123 wrote: » Whatever the signals you have up here it has not happened yet. Like I say the above signals mean nothing. If the market had been following your so called signals we should of seen a drop of at least 10% 9 months into possibly the biggest global event of my life and yet it has not come to pass. Reasons not signals for prices staying where they are as follows. Supply dwindling on a daily/weekly basis add in new house builds have slowed down. People who were paying the majority of the tax are still working are saving more due to working from home and will be able to buy. We have a huge subset in society in the 25 - 50 who are most likely to buy (something you tried to mislead people with your out of date stats) It now costs money to hold money in a bank and other investment opportunities such as shares are even more risky due to the current climate. As an investor the idea of being able to buy a house give it to the Irish government for 20+ years and make a safe ROI backed by the gov is a very attractive one in the current climate. The government have just passed a budget that will keep money in peoples pockets for the next 12 months. The Pfizer vaccine is nearly here and already countries/Continents like the US, and Europe have already subscribed to at least a billion orders of this vaccine. So we could be close to getting Corona under control it might take another 2 years to get it under control but like the flu jab it may be something someone can get once a year to keep Corona at bay.So unless the Irish government go under and all the MNCs go away I cant see a drop in price for the next 12 months.
PropQueries wrote: » These are just some of the signals I would be looking at since January 2020:Colony capital selling Irish real estate investments: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...57498?mode=ampAviva stops investors from taking money out of Irish property funds: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...57574?mode=ampBlackstone tries to get out of Blanchardstown shopping centre: https://m.independent.ie/business/ir...-39463682.htmlPepper Money to cease new commercial lending: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0904/1163292-pepper-money-to-cease-new-commercial-lending/Cullaun Capital with a loan book of €140M closed to new business: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-downIres Reit to sell off €50m in assets after buoyant first half: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.htmlProperties available for rent in central Dublin up 71% on comparable period last year: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/Glenveagh cuts prices on luxury properties in Dublin and Wicklow to accelerate sales: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html In other words, the big boys are looking to get out and as always, the small guys will be left holding the bag of proverbial. In six months to a year, people will be saying "oh yea, I spotted all those signals too"...
fliball123 wrote: » Have a look at the income tax take it was not down throughout the virus meaning those who have been paying the majority of income tax, those on the average and above average salaries are still working. (not sure how many low wage employees who would be in a position to buy even without Covid) Transactions are down due to the amount of red tape and extra work the process takes to buy a house, (all the moving parts, from solicitors to surveyors, to EAs to bank employees) while living in a covid world. It would be great to get some data on the timeframes for a property selling between going sale agreed and sold. I also believe the translations completed are ramping back up over the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the next 4 months go but I thought we would of seen a drop by now and this is not the case. Covid started in Feb its now the end of October that's 9 months. The crash in 08 is generally accepted that the Lehman Brothers hitting the wall in September signaled the spiral downwards with in 9 months of that event Irish property prices had plummeted and there was panic and prices were only going one way. We are 9 months since the event of Covid impacting us and prices have stayed flat.
nerrad01 wrote: » Its a simple supply and demand issue, not enough properties and still enough people in secure well paid employment to keep the prices sustained. I cant see this changing, and i had previously been convinced we would be in for a crash.The rental market on the other hand is in for a major correction (or at least should be if the reits were made pay tax on all those vacant properties they are using to price fix the rental market with). What effect this will have, if any, on the purchasing market is anyones guess
PropQueries wrote: » Technically it did The developers couldn't sell their properties pre-covid so were forced into the renting their new build properties. These probably aren't renting either as the increases in Daft.ie listings has shown. The original financiers of these developments didn't sign up to fund long-term rental properties so will want their investment/loans back over the next few months. This is when we will begin see the 'forced rentals' converting into 'forced sales' IMO. They tried a similar tactic after the last crash. This is just one example from February 2020 (pre-covid): "But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins. Half the units have since been rented. Originally the apartments at 19 Pembroke Road were priced from €650,000 for a one-bedroom unit up to €1.1 million for a two-bed penthouse, but renters can now expect to pay from €3,000 per month for a 54sq m one-bed up to €3,400 for a 71.5sq m one-bed." Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644
Brexit blamed for sluggish sales market
WhenPigsCry wrote: » The Great Property Crash, originally scheduled for 2019 due to Brexit, is currently expected in 2021 due to Covid, or 2022 at the latest. Please defer any property purchases until after this date in order to avail of great bargains.
fliball123 wrote: » and prices still have not dropped
fliball123 wrote: » the thing is we have been in this shock for the last 8/9 months and prices have not dropped.
dor843088 wrote: » People in here dont seem very rational. If we are heading into the biggest economic shock in modern history what makes people think that property will be the only unaffected market ? All markets are bubbles right now. Nothing makes sense including the property market.
KennisWhale wrote: » Irish Life owns half of Grafton St on behalf of their pension funds. If you ticked the box for more risky investments in your portfolio, it could be a bumpy ride.
handlemaster wrote: » https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/aviva-initiates-legal-action-against-carpetright-over-rent-dispute-39648718.html There will l be alot more to come case like this. Covid hasn't gone away.
Fewer than 6,400 people took out mortgages to buy homes in the three months to the end of September as Covid-19 took its toll on the property market. Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland statistics show the total number of home loans drawn down during the three-month period was 8,220, a fall of 30.3 per cent on the 11,794 mortgages taken out through the third quarter of last year.
PropQueries wrote: » Well just in my short lifetime the UK needed an IMF bailout in the 1970s and Ireland was in deep trouble in the 1980s. The ECB will not keep printing money to continue lending to Ireland to allow the government to continue paying landlords €2,000 a month to rent apartments or to pay €350 a week in PUP payments which is more than many workers received per working week in many other countries in the EU pre-Covid.
PropQueries wrote: » It’s based on an article I read last year about a planning application to the council to build student accommodation units in Dublin 7. It was under 200 beds so the SHD didn’t apply. The council asked them to come back with a report on how much student accommodation had been or is planned to be built in the area before making their decision. Then it hit me. The state has no idea what’s being or has been built anywhere. They have an idea of new builds but they have very little idea on how many homes have re-entered supply through probate sales or refurbished properties. I believe it’s a lot more than many people (or the state) realise. It’s just a thought. No proof. But either does the government. And that could be a problem if the state is making decisions on the basis of a housing undersupply that may not really exist. Maybe it does but I’m doubtful.
CorkRed93 wrote: » why would they "not need" it anymore? and why do you feel its possible? genuine q as seen with 2020 election housing a major issue and one would assume less/no social housing = annihilated in election?
PropQueries wrote: Well just in my short lifetime the UK needed an IMF bailout in the 1970s and Ireland was in deep trouble in the 1980s. The ECB will not keep printing money to continue lending to Ireland to allow the government to continue paying landlords €2,000 a month to rent apartments or to pay €350 a week in PUP payments which is more than many workers received per working week in many other countries in the EU pre-Covid.
PropQueries wrote: » €350 a week in PUP payments
Wanderer78 wrote: » Central banks can never run out of money, but our government can run into limitations in borrowing, but I wouldn't be worrying about that, as always, private debt is the far more dangerous debt, as the previous crash showed us. For the forseeable future, increasing public debt is more than likely the only way to get out of this one, and should be far safer to, as history shows us, there's been far less and far less serious crashes from public debt
