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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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[Deleted User]

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs

Interview with Robert Barnes on polling, outlines how regions vote on presidential elections along cultural lines and points out that polls prior to 2010 had a 50% response rate now they have a 2% response rate among other things.

Response rates for telephone polling has increased plus online polling exists. On top of that, the 2018 polls in the midterms were spot on.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/17/us/politics/polling-coronavirus.html

Call Me Jimmy

duploelabs wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear, fox news reporting that the spectacle that was the news conference before the debate where Hunter's mate was paraded out showing phones was a complete swing and a miss.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions

Given the ineptitude of this administration that's been shown over the last 4 years, I'm really not surprised they can even manufacture a faux-scandal.

(made sure I included the fox news link because it's lovely when they debunk the right wing plebs)

Except it verifies a ****-tonne of emails that Giuliani had.

So what is the new defence today given that you're not claiming the emails are fake, it's russian disinformation (which you all believed when you were lied to by the guy who lied to you before), or just simply a QAnon smear?
So the the documents / hard drive are real but the phones don't have conclusive evidence that Joe Biden received money and had dealings with that company?

Still doesn't make it all true, but it is convenient when each day you just keep forgetting what narrative you were maintaining the day before.

Timberrrrrrrr

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Except it verifies a ****-tonne of emails that Giuliani had.

So what is the new defence today given that you're not claiming the emails are fake, it's russian disinformation (which you all believed when you were lied to by the guy who lied to you before), or just simply a QAnon smear?
So the the documents / hard drive are real but the phones don't have conclusive evidence that Joe Biden received money and had dealings with that company?

Still doesn't make it all true, but it is convenient when each day you just keep forgetting what narrative you were maintaining the day before.

No one is claiming the emails are fake though.

One side is saying "Let's see what the investigation shows before making judgement "

The other side is saying "These emails are definitely real and prove that Joe Biden participated in corrupt activities"

Meanwhile no one knows what any of the emails say, If anyone claims they do know then please feel free to show evidence.

zanador

kerry_man15 wrote: »

Biden is the most uninspiring candidate I've seen in my lifetime. Typical career politician who has achieved bugger all and now thinks he deserves to be president. Pretty appalling choice overall. Surely the Democrats could put forward a more energetic, charismatic candidate than this? If they had the result would be beyond doubt.

He appeals to the moderate republicans and they need that vote.

Call Me Jimmy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

No one is claiming the emails are fake though.

One side is saying "Let's see what the investigation shows before making judgement "

The other side is saying "These emails are definitely real and prove that Joe Biden participated in corrupt activities"

Meanwhile no one knows what any of the emails say, If anyone claims they do know then please feel free to show evidence.

No, you are just gaslighting.

Igotadose

stefanovich wrote: »

He’s more popular among black voters than any previous republican president in recent decades.

Proof? Fivethirtyeight says 'about as popular.' Feel free to post your data.

Igotadose

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

No, you are just gaslighting.

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Call Me Jimmy

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't think that word means what you think it means.

Right...

newhouse87

MeMen2_MoRi_ wrote: »

Opinions come based off of facts.

You can't prove your point of the shy/people lying to pollsters.. yet you are adamant in your belief that it happened in 16 and can possibly happen in a few weeks times..

again you are not comprehending, im not adamant it happened in 16, im saying IF trump beats the polls again, obviously something is wrong with the polls, so 2 elections would indicate that shy trump voters are present. You cant prove it was undecideds and not shy voters in 16 either.

Timberrrrrrrr

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

No, you are just gaslighting.

Please explain how you think I am "gaslighting"

Call Me Jimmy

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Please explain how you think I am "gaslighting"

No, you are not worth it after that post. Any reasonable person can see.

Timberrrrrrrr

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

No, you are not worth it after that post. Any reasonable person can see.

Ah so you can't explain because you know what I said is true. I suppose accusing others of "gaslighting" is as good as an excuse as any to run away from the truth.

astrofool

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Ah so you can't explain because you know what I said is true. I suppose accusing others of "gaslighting" is as good as an excuse as any to run away from the truth.

It's called self-gaslighting, or doing a Smeagol.

Pa ElGrande

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i think Biden will win by about the same margin obama won in 2012

hes a terrible nominee but the Trump train got derailed badly and its too late now to get back on track

332 vs 206 in the electoral college - I don't see it, there is very low enthusiasm for Biden compared to Obama, the geographical regions are voting along tribal lines, Trump has held his base and made inroads into the black vote that came out en-masse for Obama, and Trump voters are enthused to come out and vote for him.

The problem Trump faces is one of over-exposure, he has dominated the news cycle practically every day since the election in 2016 and just like people are tired of hearing of Covid they have also been worn down by the daily 2 minutes of hate against him in the media. (Orange man bad). However, in order to turn that in his favour Biden needs massive turnout especially to get the gen-Z vote out and there is no app for that plus they are just not that interested in Biden.

[Deleted User]

High turnouts indicate that there's a high desire to get rid of Trump tbh. The GOP don't want high turnouts

Mad_maxx

i doubt biden will do any better in fighting covid , america is a far too open place to ever enforce lockdowns

no president was likely to win the presidency this year , Trump was unlucky for the year thats in it

Overheal

duploelabs wrote: »

Oh dear oh dear, fox news reporting that the spectacle that was the news conference before the debate where Hunter's mate was paraded out showing phones was a complete swing and a miss.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/hunter-biden-tony-bobulinski-joe-biden-unanswered-questions

Given the ineptitude of this administration that's been shown over the last 4 years, I'm really not surprised they can even manufacture a faux-scandal.

(made sure I included the fox news link because it's lovely when they debunk the right wing plebs)

Wow I honestly wasn’t expecting their story to fall apart so effortlessly

duploelabs

Overheal wrote: »

Wow I honestly wasn’t expecting their story to fall apart so effortlessly

Remember who's in charge of this, have they had any success?

Overheal

duploelabs wrote: »

Remember who's in charge of this, have they had any success?

Well the White House, I’m pretty sure, makes the QAnon posts, so yes?

Tell me how

Overheal wrote: »

Wow I honestly wasn’t expecting their story to fall apart so effortlessly

I was.

The story broke just 3 weeks before the election after Trump had seen his numbers drop week by week over the previous 2 months.
A scarcely believable chain of events or timeline relating to the laptop.
The fact that Fox News had passed on the story before it actually broke.
Rudy Giuliani and the New York Post central to the breaking news.
Continued promises of 'Oh just wait for what we will be breaking soon'
No panic within Biden camp as to the 'scandal'.

This backfired completely in that it only resulted in showcasing Trump camp ineptitude

Silentcorner

Looks like Black people have realized who exactly is "locking them up in chains".

Imprisonment rates for black men is also at lowest level in decades.

Tony EH

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

That is going to happen whoever is president.

Having one good man as president doesn't mean the rest of the country isn't regressing.

A President is just a figurehead. He's like a front man in a large band. Everyone is focused on the front man and largely ignore the rest. In fact, most people don't even know what the bass sounds like or the name of the guy playing it.

America is really a one party country, that has two slightly different flavours. But in the end they're both in favour of keeping the status quo intact and aren't truly interested in changing things to any real degree. The ridiculous notion that the Democrats and Republicans are the polar opposites of each is laughable, when both are quite conservative in their outlook.

Overheal

Silentcorner wrote: »

Looks like Black people have realized who exactly is "locking them up in chains".

Imprisonment rates for black men is also at lowest level in decades.

Dare I ask what your source is for that

Silentcorner

Overheal wrote: »

Dare I ask what your source is for that

Wait a minute...are you seriously suggesting you are unaware of the declining imprisonment rates for black people in the US?

duploelabs

Silentcorner wrote: »

Wait a minute...are you seriously suggesting you are unaware of the declining imprisonment rates for black people in the US?

Back up your claim or gtfo

Overheal

Silentcorner wrote: »

Wait a minute...are you seriously suggesting you are unaware of the declining imprisonment rates for black people in the US?

I’d like to see your source for that all the same. I suspect what we will see is, like unemployment numbers, no shift in trend between presidents, Trump having nothing to do with the state of the figure. Presidents don’t, as a rule, influence how the courts rule on criminal cases. Implying that Trump is responsible for a lower imprisonment rate is farcical. So I’d love it if you could demonstrate any inflection point in the trend line of incarcerations over time thank you and God bless.

Silentcorner

duploelabs wrote: »

Back up your claim or gtfo

Google it yourself.

[Deleted User]

Silentcorner wrote: »

Google it yourself.

You've made a claim, it's fair to expect you to back it up.

Overheal

Silentcorner wrote: »

Google it yourself.

“RETREEEEEEAT”

Your burden of proof my guy.

duploelabs

Silentcorner wrote: »

Google it yourself.

I only Google myself when the wife's not in the mood or when I'm alone in a hotel room