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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

No.. but I'd kind of expect her not to start banging her late husband's brother..

Maybe I'm just old fashioned..

That's one way to put it.

A quirky love story revolving around the unexpected wedding and unconventional married life of a 26-year-old widow and her late husband's brother, a handsome 30-year-old cardiologist.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1346983/

And another: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/real-life-stories/i-married-my-dead-husbands-brother-526618

mcmoustache

stefanovich wrote: »

They are absolutely in dispute and not proven. Stop peddling nonsense.

The facts aren't on your side here. It's not even that long ago that this happened.

Trump's lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight criminal charges, including a campaign finance violation for Daniels' payment in August 2018. He stated under oath that he paid her "in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office." Both Trump and his attorney Rudy Giuliani stated that Trump personally reimbursed Cohen in 2017 and used no campaign money. Cohen was sentenced to three years in federal prison for various charges.

You'll have forgive my skepticism of the idea of Trump paying off porn stars for nothing. He might be a bad businessman but he's not that bad.

Call Me Jimmy

Banging his dead brother's mrs. with the blessing of pops? hah hadn't heard that one but sounds par for the course.

Two things can be true at the same time;
cheating on your wife with a porn star: bad
banging your dead bro's mrs: bad

And my brain had almost forgotten about former-future-president Avenatti too!

Professor Moriarty

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Banging his dead brother's mrs. with the blessing of pops? hah hadn't heard that one but sounds par for the course.

Two things can be true at the same time;
cheating on your wife with a porn star: bad
banging your dead bro's mrs: bad

My brain had almost forgotten about the former-future-president Avenatti too!

Such well-crafted and incisive post. Erudite too.

Call Me Jimmy

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Such well-crafted and incisive post. Erudite too.

I will try to improve professor, don't give up on me.

Overheal

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Erudite too.

Dont be bringing your liberal greek mythology into this

Professor Moriarty

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

I will try to improve professor, don't give up on me.

Good boy. Here's a gold star.

Professor Moriarty

Overheal wrote: »

Dont be bringing your liberal greek mythology into this

Just tantalising in an echo chamber narcissistically.

Pa ElGrande

Former President Obama Coming To Philadelphia To Hold First Campaign Event For Joe Biden

Pennsylvania is getting lots of swing state attention this week; isn’t it nice to be wanted?

If Biden is so far ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania why is Obama going there?

Professor Moriarty

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Former President Obama Coming To Philadelphia To Hold First Campaign Event For Joe Biden

Pennsylvania is getting lots of swing state attention this week; isn’t it nice to be wanted?

If Biden is so far ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania why is Obama going there?

Putting the final nail in the coffin.

Timberrrrrrrr

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Former President Obama Coming To Philadelphia To Hold First Campaign Event For Joe Biden

Pennsylvania is getting lots of swing state attention this week; isn’t it nice to be wanted?

If Biden is so far ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania why is Obama going there?

Do you drive?

When you're a mile from home do you take your foot off the pedal and hope to coast to your front door or do you continue to give it gas until you are at your destination?

[Deleted User]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/blatantly-lied-at-a-town-hall-biden-falsely-claims-boilermakers-union-overwhelmingly-endorse-him

mcmoustache

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

If Biden is so far ahead in the polls in Pennsylvania why is Obama going there?

2016 isn't that long ago and one big lesson from it was not to take anything for granted.

km991148

[Deleted User] wrote: »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/blatantly-lied-at-a-town-hall-biden-falsely-claims-boilermakers-union-overwhelmingly-endorse-him

While I hate a whataboutary type post.. I do find this article hilarious.. that one of Trump's favourite news ('news') outlets is taking the moral high ground regarding lies!

(If course, Biden should be brought to task if he has been telling lies)

Tell me how

km991148 wrote: »

While I hate a whataboutary type post.. I do find this article hilarious.. that one of Trump's favourite news ('news') outlets is taking the moral high ground regarding lies!

(If course, Biden should be brought to task if he has been telling lies)

I loved this line.

"We did not endorse Obama and Joe Biden last time because of their energy issues."

Translation, 'They want us to stop pulling oil out of the ground and pouring CO2 in to the atmosphere, the w*nkers'.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/blatantly-lied-at-a-town-hall-biden-falsely-claims-boilermakers-union-overwhelmingly-endorse-him

You jest?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidmarkowitz/2020/05/05/trump-is-lying-more-than-ever-just-look-at-the-data/

[Deleted User]

km991148 wrote: »

. that one of Trump's favourite news ('news') outlets is taking the moral high ground regarding lies!

(If course, Biden should be brought to task if he has been telling lies)

I wasn't aware he was a fan of the Washington Examiner*..Didn't think he did print news tbh..But it does appear Biden just kind of made that up..

And you'd just have to ask why?..

I'm sure Biden will be brought to task posthaste..

cameramonkey

I don't think any half serious person thinks Trump will get within an asses road of Biden.
The Trump days as president are over.

Baggly

Mod

Lads stop dumping links without commentary or your own opinion.

stefanovich

cameramonkey wrote: »

I don't think any half serious person thinks Trump will get within an asses road of Biden.
The Trump days as president are over.

You all said Hillary would win big back in 2016, she lost.
You all said Brexit would never happen. It happened.
Now you are all saying Biden will win big but he is behind where Hillary was in the polls at the same point.
Most Trump voters are going to vote in person. Can't wait.

rolling boh

Poll seem to be fairly solid in Biden's favour in the key states plus can't see many people who did not vote Trump the last time doing so now . Trump never seemed interested in trying to reach out to these voters am sure they have plenty of private polls so they must know the way things are going .But I do think covid beat him not Biden but it's only me looking from afar .

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

rolling boh wrote: »

Poll seem to be fairly solid in Biden's favour in the key states plus can't see many people who did not vote Trump the last time doing so now . Trump never seemed interested in trying to reach out to these voters am sure they have plenty of private polls so they must know the way things are going .But I do think covid beat him not Biden but it's only me looking from afar .

It was more the George Floyd killing and persuing protests that did him. The odds were pretty even up until then (Trump even had a slight lead in some of them).

Cirrus Incus

stefanovich wrote: »

You all said Hillary would win big back in 2016, she lost.
You all said Brexit would never happen. It happened.
Now you are all saying Biden will win big but he is behind where Hillary was in the polls at the same point.
Most Trump voters are going to vote in person. Can't wait.

There's this myth that polls got it horribly wrong in 2016. Clinton was never that far ahead of Trump at any point and was within the margin of error. Pollster did underweight the non college educated white voters, but that's been corrected this time. There's also fewer undecided voters now and about 30 million votes have already been cast. Voter turnout is high as well, which historically favours the democrats. Trump has a fanatically loyal base that will vote for him regardless, but that's not enough to win the election. He needs moderate voters and attacking Fauci isn't going to help him there.

stefanovich

Cirrus Incus wrote: »

There's this myth that polls got it horribly wrong in 2016. Clinton was never that far ahead of Trump at any point and was within the margin of error. Pollster did underweight the non college educated white voters, but that's been corrected this time. There's also fewer undecided voters now and about 30 million votes have already been cast. Voter turnout is high as well, which historically favours the democrats. Trump has a fanatically loyal base that will vote for him regardless, but that's not enough to win the election. He needs moderate voters and attacking Fauci isn't going to help him there.

Okay, but Biden is currently polling below where Clinton was at the same point. Your main assumption is that undecideds will vote Biden...

If you look at new voter registrations they are overwhelmingly Republican. A lot of republicans will only vote on the day too.

I still think Trump has a very good chance.

[Deleted User]

stefanovich wrote: »

Okay, but Biden is currently polling below where Clinton was at the same point. Your main assumption is that undecideds will vote Biden...

If you look at new voter registrations they are overwhelmingly Republican. A lot of republicans will only vote on the day too.

I still think Trump has a very good chance.

He's actually polling ahead of where she was in key swing states. Polls in 2016 were accurate, everything was within margin of error. Also why are you ignoring that the polls in 2018 were spot on?

ohnonotgmail

stefanovich wrote: »

You all said Hillary would win big back in 2016, she lost.
You all said Brexit would never happen. It happened.
Now you are all saying Biden will win big but he is behind where Hillary was in the polls at the same point.
Most Trump voters are going to vote in person. Can't wait.

i presume you have a source for that? it should be pretty easy to provide one if it is true.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

stefanovich wrote: »

Okay, but Biden is currently polling below where Clinton was at the same point. Your main assumption is that undecideds will vote Biden...

If you look at new voter registrations they are overwhelmingly Republican. A lot of republicans will only vote on the day too.

I still think Trump has a very good chance.

Biden is ahead of where Clinton was. He's at 52% where she as 45% at this stage four years ago. Trump was at 39, currently 43.

As it stands, a 6 point lead then is now a 9 point lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

stefanovich

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

i presume you have a source for that? it should be pretty easy to provide one if it is true.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

Sorry, it is in battleground states where Biden is below where Clinton was at.

ohnonotgmail

stefanovich wrote: »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

Sorry, it is in battleground states where Biden is below where Clinton was at.

given that the pollsters have admitted they got it wrong in 2016 i'm not worried by that. Millions have already voted. turnout will be high. that is never good for the GOP

stefanovich

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

given that the pollsters have admitted they got it wrong in 2016 i'm not worried by that. Millions have already voted. turnout will be high. that is never good for the GOP

When Biden is ahead the polls are correct, when he is behind they can't be trusted?

College age turnout has cratered.
Trump has gained significant Latino vote. They are strong catholics and strongly against BLM and Antifa apologists.