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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

I thought you were of the opinion we had enough housing so why would we need that

Don't Panic!

I still believe that. Just looking at potential sources of supply to argue against people who believe that the current housing issue may be due to a limited supply of available development land within the Dublin region.

KennisWhale

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

But you said transactions were less than half, so which is it?

Yes, correct. I was wrong.

Transactions are close to half of what they were last year during the covid lockdown period. As such, combined with the economic freeze, it is not a useful barometer of the likely impact of covid on the market.

vintagecosmos

Hi All, just on the Daft report published today. Is it based on asking prices or actual prices as per PPR?

According to the methodology its just asking prices. So if the CSO or someone come out and say prices are falling based on transactions, but Daft come out and say they are rising (based on auctioneers etc pricing higher to build in negotiation) then would it be safe to say that the PPR is a better source of actual sales data and not this daft (asking price report). I find it a bit misleading to be honest....

Methodology and Sample Size
The statistics are based on properties advertised on
Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are
hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available
and measurable attributes of properties, with a
Cooks Distance filter for outliers.

cnocbui

handlemaster wrote: »

Were you not herebinn2007/2008. It was the same argument then.

I owned a house for years prior to 2007, so I wasn't interested in the topic and wasn't on this or similar threads, if that is what you meant (hard to tell 'herebinn'?)

Idbatterim

Tens of billions being borrowed to keep ps and cs pay huge , supply shortage exacerbated by covid. Construction, pharma, mamy multinationals booming . I dont expect to see any meaningful drops now, for quite some time... i mean its obvious the housing market moves glacially. It appears the " itll drop fifty percent in a few weeks argument" is well wide of the mark for now. Im not a homeowner by the way, just find all of this stuff very interesting..

Also interesting, in terms of new builds and the shortage, government are going to be buying an increasing amount, out of necessity and pressure. Given their comic failure on housing...

hometruths

vintagecosmos wrote: »

Hi All, just on the Daft report published today. Is it based on asking prices or actual prices as per PPR?

According to the methodology its just asking prices. So if the CSO or someone come out and say prices are falling based on transactions, but Daft come out and say they are rising (based on auctioneers etc pricing higher to build in negotiation) then would it be safe to say that the PPR is a better source of actual sales data and not this daft (asking price report). I find it a bit misleading to be honest....

Methodology and Sample Size
The statistics are based on properties advertised on
Daft.ie for a given period. The regressions used are
hedonic price regressions, accounting for all available
and measurable attributes of properties, with a
Cooks Distance filter for outliers.

Some posters here quote asking prices or sold prices interchangeably depending on the specific point they're trying to make or refute. I agree it can be misleading.

Rew

PropQueries wrote: »

But what if they exchanged the 42 acres they occupy at Cathal Brugha Barracks for 42 acres in Phoenix Park. Actually, give them 100 acres to sweeten the deal. Phoenix Park has 1,752 acres. Then, they would still be within walking distance of Leinster House if security concerns are indeed the prime reason?

They have a barracks basically in the Phoenix park already, if they were to get rid of one it would be that one as Cathal Bruagha is more strategically important to the state.

PropQueries

Some more news from the commercial real estate market in the UK:

"Land Securities is to sell off close to a third of its £12.8bn property portfolio, as it seeks to reduce its exposure to struggling sectors such as retail.

Mark Allan, chief executive of the FTSE 100 property company, announced it would sell roughly £4bn worth of assets, 60 per cent of them in London, over the next four to five years and reinvest in areas of the market where it could eke out the most value.

Two-thirds of Landsec’s portfolio by value is in the UK capital, including a major campus in Victoria, the One New Change shopping centre and office development near St Paul’s Cathedral and Deutsche Bank’s new offices at 21 Moorfields."

Link to article in FT here: https://www.ft.com/content/5c5e925b-342e-4206-94d5-d49c32c549db

KennisWhale

The investor shift will be to housing and in a big way.

aidoh

Gonna post some observations about the current state of the Irish property market as I see it, based on my situation as a prospective cash buyer having attended plenty of viewings over the past few weeks.

1. It's creeping back towards a buyer's market.
We've been getting instant replies from EAs who have been very helpful in arranging viewing times to suit us (gone are the days of dozens of people queuing to get a glimpse of a place, only for it to be snapped up for well over asking price the following day!). Additionally, we've been hounded with follow-up calls from EAs verging on desperation, trying their best to push us towards making an offer only a day or two after viewing.

2. Prices are definitely going down a bit already.
Every single house we've viewed over the past few weeks seems to be going for 10-30k lower than asking price. We know this based on the fact that EAs are telling us the current highest bids in advance of viewings, presumably to ensure we're not time-wasters, and they've been well below the listed asking price.
I like others would've expected (and certainly hoped for) a far bigger reduction in asking prices by now but I strongly believe they are going that direction naturally, despite the fact that the lack of houses on the market seems to be keeping things afloat to a large extent. But it all feels like a wobbly house of cards at the moment.

We plan to hold off for a few more months as we are in a situation where we thankfully can. If we see somewhere perfect that's within our budget we'll go for it however as we're looking for a family home - no interest in climbing the ladder.

All just my own opinions of course, based on the experiences I'm having atm. No one's predictions have come true in this thread yet so I thought might be helpful for others to hear from someone who knows nothing about the market but is sussing it out through lived experience nonetheless!

Timing belt

aidoh wrote: »

Gonna post some observations about the current state of the Irish property market as I see it, based on my situation as a prospective cash buyer having attended plenty of viewings over the past few weeks.

1. It's creeping back towards a buyer's market.
We've been getting instant replies from EAs who have been very helpful in arranging viewing times to suit us (gone are the days of dozens of people queuing to get a glimpse of a place, only for it to be snapped up for well over asking price the following day!). Additionally, we've been hounded with follow-up calls from EAs verging on desperation, trying their best to push us towards making an offer only a day or two after viewing.

2. Prices are definitely going down a bit already.
Every single house we've viewed over the past few weeks seems to be going for 10-30k lower than asking price. We know this based on the fact that EAs are telling us the current highest bids in advance of viewings, presumably to ensure we're not time-wasters, and they've been well below the listed asking price.
I like others would've expected (and certainly hoped for) a far bigger reduction in asking prices by now but I strongly believe they are going that direction naturally, despite the fact that the lack of houses on the market seems to be keeping things afloat to a large extent. But it all feels like a wobbly house of cards at the moment.

We plan to hold off for a few more months as we are in a situation where we thankfully can. If we see somewhere perfect that's within our budget we'll go for it however as we're looking for a family home - no interest in climbing the ladder.

All just my own opinions of course, based on the experiences I'm having atm. No one's predictions have come true in this thread yet so I thought might be helpful for others to hear from someone who knows nothing about the market but is sussing it out through lived experience nonetheless!

was it the Dublin market you were looking at?

aidoh

Timing belt wrote: »

was it the Dublin market you were looking at?

It is, north Dublin and not new builds.

Balluba

aidoh wrote: »

Gonna post some observations about the current state of the Irish property market as I see it, based on my situation as a prospective cash buyer having attended plenty of viewings over the past few weeks.

1. It's creeping back towards a buyer's market.
We've been getting instant replies from EAs who have been very helpful in arranging viewing times to suit us (gone are the days of dozens of people queuing to get a glimpse of a place, only for it to be snapped up for well over asking price the following day!). Additionally, we've been hounded with follow-up calls from EAs verging on desperation, trying their best to push us towards making an offer only a day or two after viewing.

2. Prices are definitely going down a bit already.
Every single house we've viewed over the past few weeks seems to be going for 10-30k lower than asking price. We know this based on the fact that EAs are telling us the current highest bids in advance of viewings, presumably to ensure we're not time-wasters, and they've been well below the listed asking price.
I like others would've expected (and certainly hoped for) a far bigger reduction in asking prices by now but I strongly believe they are going that direction naturally, despite the fact that the lack of houses on the market seems to be keeping things afloat to a large extent. But it all feels like a wobbly house of cards at the moment.

We plan to hold off for a few more months as we are in a situation where we thankfully can. If we see somewhere perfect that's within our budget we'll go for it however as we're looking for a family home - no interest in climbing the ladder.

All just my own opinions of course, based on the experiences I'm having atm. No one's predictions have come true in this thread yet so I thought might be helpful for others to hear from someone who knows nothing about the market but is sussing it out through lived experience nonetheless!

If you went to viewings over the past few weeks and you have decided to hold off for a couple of months does that mean that you were not tempted to buy despite the reductions ?
or is there a shortage of good suitable houses in the location that you want?

aidoh

Balluba wrote: »

If you went to viewings over the past few weeks and you have decided to hold off for a couple of months does that mean that you were not tempted to buy despite the reductions ?
or is there a shortage of good suitable houses in the location that you want?

Moreso a case of the reductions not being enough to spring us into action, given that further reductions seem inevitable. Again we can luclily wait it out another few months and I feel like we'd be mad not to. And also a case of the houses not being worth the asking prices in our opinion either, so both your points are true at the same time! House prices are still scandalous but I'm seeing them come down.
We've been told by EAs that there are a lot of FTBers 'panic buying' right now, for all sorts of reasons, which is undoubtedly helping to keep the asking prices unreasonably high.

Seemingly the asking prices are rarely being reached though, which is a positive sign (for buyers).

Coyler

I can echo pretty much all of aidoh's experience but I'm in South Dublin. Thing is, PPR trends do match our experience as well. Asking prices did climb a little but I don't see those properties moving. And like aidoh we decided to hold off because we didn't think we'd lose anything. Prices were flat lining for most of 2019 so a vaccine isn't going to change thing radically the other way.

Of course, it all depends where you are looking and how much you are looking to spend. Trying to hang your hat on national figures, extrapolating our experience to all regions or to all price ranges isn't practical. Outside Dublin still looks to be going up, some faster than others. I'm sure any 3 bed semi in Dublin below €400,000 will be highly sought after as well.

Shoden

I'm as guilty as anyone else for partaking but I do think that 600 odd pages of complete and utter speculation is entertaining in and of itself.

Truth is there are too many factors at play, both internationally and locally: No-one knows what's going to happen and anyone who claims otherwise is at best speculation and at worst a liar.

Take everything you read with a grain of salt (including this) and do what's best for you.

GreeBo

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if they built on the 42 acres in Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines it would be a pretty good start.

In England, they identified enough brownfield sites to build a million homes and that was pre-covid with enough brownfield sites for 18,000 new homes in Barnet, north London alone.

Also, just look at the Dundrum shopping centres (both old one and new one). They could easily build on top of the car parks there. In New York and I think in London, selling so-called 'Air Rights' where they build on top of shopping centres or on top of the rail network in New York were growing in popularity pre-covid.

They could probably build thousands of apartments alone on top of both the Dundrum shopping centres (old and new) and on top of the Clearwater shopping centre in Finglas.

That's if they wanted to of course. So, I don't believe it's due to land being a limited resource in the big cities (i.e. Dublin, London or New York). Just complete mismanagement (On purpose? probably.) of the existing use of land.

Link to Guardian article on browsfield sites here: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/25/million-homes-could-be-built-on-english-brownfield-sites

But lets say that do that, tomorrow, what does that get you, 10 years before you have the same problem.

Unless you have a long term solution (like mass WFH or ridiculous levels of public transport) its a short term solution at best.

Marius34

So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase. Who would have thought so..

PropQueries

GreeBo wrote: »

But lets say that do that, tomorrow, what does that get you, 10 years before you have the same problem.

Unless you have a long term solution (like mass WFH or ridiculous levels of public transport) its a short term solution at best.

I would say mass WFH is no longer in the 'long-term' box and more in the short-term or at most medium-term box. In ten years times there is absolutely no local demand for housing in Ireland once net inward migration is taken out of the equation.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

hometruths

schmittel wrote: »

Some posters here quote asking prices or sold prices interchangeably depending on the specific point they're trying to make or refute. I agree it can be misleading.

Right on cue...

Marius34 wrote: »

So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase. Who would have thought so..

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Right on cue...

Can't you read my post?
"So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase."

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

Can't you read my post?
"So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase."

Here is an example of the house prices in cork based on the CSO data

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Can't you read my post?
"So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase."

Can people have a look at p. 12 of the Daft report (link below).

Prices of 1-bed apartments appear to have the biggest increases in asking prices.

How does this align with what the estate agents have been stating that people are looking to get out of one-bed 'cramped' apartments in order to move to large homes in the suburbs?

Link to latest Daft report here: https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q3-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Can't you read my post?
"So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase."

Yes I can. Happily it’s a short post.

I read it. Noted it’s contents. Considered it for about a nanosecond and then quoted it.

What’s the problem?

Graham

Mod Note

schmittel, knock it off. If you have an issue with the statistics DAFT collate, take it up with them.

lalababa

Marius34 wrote: »

So Daft 2020 Q3 shows asking price increase. Who would have thought so..

Jeepers , what's happening in Waterford & Clare?....

hometruths

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

schmittel, knock it off. If you have an issue with the statistics DAFT collate, take it up with them.

No issue with daft stats which I presume are beyond reproach.

A poster earlier said he found the fact some reports focused on asking and others on sales prices to be misleading. I replied saying I agreed, it can be misleading here too, pointing out that some posters place a different weight on the value of asking prices depending on the point they are making or refuting.

I said this because I recall an occasion when a poster used asking prices to suggest prices were falling. He was criticized by many, including Marius, who said asking prices are fairly meaningless.

Hence I quoted Marius’s post highlighting increased asking prices. Perfectly valid point.

PropQueries

lalababa wrote: »

Jeepers , what's happening in Waterford & Clare?....

Maybe they're the smart ones...

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

Here is an example of the house prices in cork based on the CSO data

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=529842&stc=1&d=1603122215

It appears, this is raw median price, without adjustments.
Ideally we should have CSO index for Cork, to see the actual change in the price. I'm not sure if such exist.

I have my own calculation on Median prices with adjustment, Cork prices looks fairly stable.

jill_valentine

PropQueries wrote: »

Can people have a look at p. 12 of the Daft report (link below).

Prices of 1-bed apartments appear to have the biggest increases in asking prices.

How does this align with what the estate agents have been stating that people are looking to get out of one-bed 'cramped' apartments in order to move to large homes in the suburbs?

Link to latest Daft report here: https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q3-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

Q3 was pre the studentpocalypse, when it was still just possible to believe apartments would regain their status as an earnings engine soon. So there was low supply because people holding them weren't selling, while demand was at least steady if not increased.

October is the first month accommodation that would have been used by students will actually be sitting empty without any rent or deposit against it, and the new lockdown news makes it clear that this situation is not going away for a long time.

I would say the next month (I know, I know...) will be the litmus test of how true the estate agent rumblings are. What I will say is that the folks I was speaking to are friends of mine who were chit chatting casually, rather than trying to sell me anything, so at the very least they believe it too.