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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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duploelabs

sydthebeat wrote: »

Breaking News: Bigfoot reveals Hunter Biden smoking crack with Laptop

If you pause the video, you can see his second set of verticle eyelids blink thus proving he's part of THE LIZARD LORD ILLUMINATI

drunkmonkey

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Its the same as two weeks ago.

No it wasn't you said the same the other day and you were wrong then and your wrong now. Your fake news.

Zubeneschamali

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

I think he's left it too late, two weeks to go.

Something major - and substantiated - would have to happen at this stage

Comey's Butter Emails letter was Oct 28 last time and won it for Trump, yet Comey acknowledged there was nothing to it with two days to go, so we know an unsubstantiated laptop email story can have an effect.

But this hard drive nonsense is just too obviously a third rate copy of that October Suprise.

hetuzozaho

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Comey's Butter Emails letter was Oct 28 last time and won it for Trump, yet Comey acknowledged there was nothing to it with two days to go, so we know an unsubstantiated laptop email story can have an effect.

I didn't follow the last election. How do they know it won it for Trump out of interest?

Timberrrrrrrr

drunkmonkey wrote: »

No it wasn't you said the same the other day and you were wrong then and your wrong now. Your fake news.

I posted the same odds two weeks ago from sky bet.

I get it kiddo, your hero is circling the drain and this has you upset, screaming fake news when the evidence is actually there for anyone to see is hilarious though.

Keep up the good work, you're making Trump look worse by the day.

cnocbui

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Absolutely nothing, there are no laptops, Bidens done nothing wrong and that wasn't a crack pipe in Hunters mouth according to a lot of posters here.
If you say any different your a fully fledged member of Qanon.

That's right, there is no proof that there even is or was a laptop.

A Trump suporter says he had a laptop, dropped off by someone he can't identify and who's contact details didn't work.

He told the FBI about what he found on the laptop and they came with a subpoena and took it away, but he had made a copy of the hard drive, he claims and then gave that to Giuliani/Bannon.

So if the story is true, the FBI have the laptop, not Giuliani.

But hang on, several Republican senators have written to the FBI asking a bunch of questions about it and their investigation of it, but as far as have been able to ascertain, the FBI have not replied, or if they have, the Republican senators are unwilling to disclose what the reply was.

Now it's become a deep state conspiracy by the FBI against Trump and the republicans:

It didn’t surprise the informed, and understandably a bit cynical, to hear that the FBI sat on Hunter Biden’s laptop instead of seeking justice. The bureau was previously involved in an illegal plot to take down Donald Trump, after all, and its Deep State elements would assuredly love to see Joe Biden succeed him in January. So why would they reveal damning information on their establishment hope?

https://drrichswier.com/2020/10/19/is-this-another-reason-the-fbi-hid-the-hunter-biden-laptop/

There is also all sorts of stuff about the subpoena. The FBI agent some news organisations have identified as signing the subpoena, was in recent times, head of a child abduction, rapid response team. So if the subpoena relates to the laptop - and there is no evidence it does - why would a child rescue specialist be the one picking up tht laptop when the issue is supposedly political influence peddling?

And also, having looked at a photo of the supposed subpoena, the name of who is the subject of it has been redacted and it's for a court appearance, not the seizing of a laptop and the bit on the subpoena requiring documents or electronic data, like a laptop to be brought to the court is blank. (you can check the photo in the WP article I link to below)

Check out the standard of photoshopping in the photos proving it was Hunter Biden's laptop:

Look at the bottom right hand corner!

What's more, the Washington Post article which included that photo as evidence that the laptop is real, no longer contains that photo. Did they remove it in embarrasment after the photoshopping was rumbled? How do I know it was there - I used tineye.com image search and it showed the websites where the engine originally found it and where it no longer is. https://nypost.com/2020/10/14/email-reveals-how-hunter-biden-introduced-ukrainian-biz-man-to-dad/

As I said before, this whole thing reeks of a disinformation campaign and the existence of the laptop and it's provenance is extremely doubtful.

deceit

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Comey's Butter Emails letter was Oct 28 last time and won it for Trump, yet Comey acknowledged there was nothing to it with two days to go, so we know an unsubstantiated laptop email story can have an effect.

But this hard drive nonsense is just too obviously a third rate copy of that October Suprise.

Would Hunter Bidens lawyer requesting the laptop back not suggest the laptop is real?

drunkmonkey

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I posted the same odds two weeks ago from sky bet.

I get it kiddo, your hero is circling the drain and this has you upset, screaming fake news when the evidence is actually there for anyone to see is hilarious though.

Keep up the good work, you're making Trump look worse by the day.

There not the same odds as yesterday and well you know it. He's gaining and the denial of what's happening seems to fit with the theme here.
Sky Bet it's currently..8/13 for Biden which is even worse than when I posted the paddy power odds this morning.
Complete denial of realty there from you.

8-10

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I didn't follow the last election. How do they know it won it for Trump out of interest?

I recommend watching this 2-part show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc8XsWQMcs8

Highly dramatised but goes through the whole investigation of the emails and the timeline of information being released in the leadup to the election as well as the players involved in Trumps circle and the Russia investigation like Michael Flynn, Carter Page, George Papadopolous, Paul Manafort. Names you don't see involved in this campaign for some reason even though he only hires the best people....

hetuzozaho

8-10 wrote: »

I recommend watching this 2-part show

Ah cheers, it's on my todo list that show, tonight seems like a good night to start so!

stefanovich

8-10 wrote: »

I recommend watching this 2-part show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc8XsWQMcs8

Highly dramatised but goes through the whole investigation of the emails and the timeline of information being released in the leadup to the election as well as the players involved in Trumps circle and the Russia investigation like Michael Flynn, Carter Page, George Papadopolous, Paul Manafort. Names you don't see involved in this campaign for some reason even though he only hires the best people....

Hollywood have been saving up all the anti-Trump dramas for this year.

cnocbui

deceit wrote: »

Would Hunter Bidens lawyer requesting the laptop back not suggest the laptop is real?

What does the purported email say? Quote it verbatim.

The one I have seen says:

"Subject: George Mesires contact information

John Paul:

Thank you for speaking with me tonight. As I indicated, I am a lawyer for Hunter Biden and I appreciate you reviewing your records on this matter. Thank you.

George

George R. Mesires
Partner"

How is that an email asking for a laptop to be returned? The subject is contact information.

Zubeneschamali

hetuzozaho wrote: »

I didn't follow the last election. How do they know it won it for Trump out of interest?

On oct 28 last, Clinton was 5-7 points up nationally, but with a lot of undecided voters. The Comey story was the #1 story on front page news for the following week, and Clinton lost 3 or 4 points nationally.

She finished just 2 points up and lost by a few tens of thousands of swing state votes.

Even if a weeks nonstop front page coverage only moved the needle by 1% of those 3-4 % points, that was enough to win it for Trump.

Phoebas

deceit wrote: »

Would Hunter Bidens lawyer requesting the laptop back not suggest the laptop is real?

But did he actually request it back? We have Steve Bannon's word for it, which, you must admit, is useless.

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

On oct 28 last, Clinton was 5-7 points up nationally, but with a lot of undecided voters. The Comey story was the #1 story on front page news for the following week, and Clinton lost 3 or 4 points nationally.

She finished just 2 points up and lost by a few tens of thousands of swing state votes.

Even if a weeks nonstop front page coverage only moved the needle by 1% of those 3-4 % points, that was enough to win it for Trump.

Biden currently holds a 10 point lead. The problem Trump has is that he's trailing in 7 of the 9 states he took last time round.

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There not the same odds as yesterday and well you know it. He's gaining and the denial of what's happening seems to fit with the theme here.
Sky Bet it's currently..8/13 for Biden which is even worse than when I posted the paddy power odds this morning.
Complete denial of realty there from you.

They're atrocious odds for an incumbent and in all honesty, the betting markets are trying to play it as safe as possible this time.

Baggly

drunkmonkey wrote: »

No it wasn't you said the same the other day and you were wrong then and your wrong now. Your fake news.

Mod

Lets try this another way then. Dont post in this thread for a week.

osarusan

deceit wrote: »

Would Hunter Bidens lawyer requesting the laptop back not suggest the laptop is real?

Post up a link to Hunter Biden's lawyer requesting it back, and let us examine its credibility.

Zubeneschamali

Princess Consuela Bananahammock wrote: »

Biden currently holds a 10 point lead. The problem Trump has is that he's trailing in 7 of the 9 states he took last time round.

Also, there are fewer undecided. Clinton was 5% up, but 2 weeks out there were still 15% undecided.

Those 15% broke 9-6 to Trump, closing the national gap to 2%.

538 today shows Biden 10.5 up, with a max 5.7 undecided. Even if Trump does better than 2016 and wins all 5.7, he would still be 5% behind.

2016s 3:2 ratio would leave him 9% behind.

But last time the undecideds broke for the Change candidate. I think 3:2 for Biden is likely, stretching his lead.

Overheal

deceit wrote: »

Would Hunter Bidens lawyer requesting the laptop back not suggest the laptop is real?

If I woke up one day and someone was on TV claiming I have several unclaimed MacBook pros I would want some free laptops too.

Zubeneschamali

So giving Biden one more point from the undecideds, and then giving him any state where he is 3 points up, Biden wins 334 to 204.

Of course there could still be a late swing, but I think that is as likely to be a rats-leaving-a-sinking-ship swing away from Trump if his voters think it is over as a swing towards Trump.

cnocbui

'Black people are literally voting like their lives depend on it'

October 19, 2020 — 5.51pm

Washington: A 72-year-old voter in Dayton, Ohio, said, "I'm angry about everything." A retired veterinary technician in Detroit said she voted for one reason only: "Donald Trump. To make sure he's not reelected." A federal employee who waited in line for 10 hours in suburban Atlanta explained simply: "I have three black sons."
...

In interviews in 10 states where early voting is underway, black voters said this year's election is the most important of their lifetime - some calling it more consequential even than in 2008, when those who were old enough went to the polls in record numbers to make Barack Obama the country's first black president.

They spoke of a sense of urgency to protect the nation's democracy, and their role in it, which they believe a second Trump term would erode beyond repair. Many said they view the President as a racist who cannot bring himself to disavow white supremacists or the year's spate of police killings of unarmed black Americans, and they believe the country is less safe for themselves and their families.
...
Turnout numbers in states with available data show a surge of black participation in the first few days of in-person voting. In North Carolina, which began early voting on Thursday, black voters accounted for more than 30 per cent of turnout on the first day - well above their 23 per cent share overall in 2016. In Georgia, black voters accounted for about 32 per cent of mail ballots and in-person votes cast through to Thursday, so far outpacing their overall share of the electorate in 2016.

The pattern is similar in US cities with large black populations. In the counties that include Milwaukee and Detroit, for instance, the roughly 283,000 in combined votes cast already is equivalent to nearly a quarter of those counties' total turnout four years ago. A drop-off in votes for Democrat Hillary Clinton in those cities in 2016 compared with Obama's 2008 and 2012 vote tallies contributed to Trump's overall victory after he carried Wisconsin and Michigan by tiny margins.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/black-people-are-literally-voting-like-their-lives-depend-on-it-20201019-p566ke.html

That doesn't seem to bode well for Trump.

Call Me Jimmy

Just seeing some of the rhetoric about how russian bots are out in force again and Russia has orchestrated this disinformation campaign and so I'm thinking, let's just grant all that.

It then makes me think what are China doing? Many times more powerful and capable, are they indifferent, preferring to leave it to the will of the people or are they just incompetent?
They're engaged in cyber warfare all day and all night with US but I haven't seen a single story about them even making attempts to get someone elected that will benefit them, the way Russia are said to be doing with Trump.

The only thing that even alludes to Chinese involvement is the Russian disinformation.

hometruths

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Just seeing some of the rhetoric about how russian bots are out in force again and Russia has orchestrated this disinformation campaign and so I'm thinking, let's just grant all that.

The US Director of National Intelligence is not so quick to grant it;

Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe on Monday said that Hunter Biden’s laptop “is not part of some Russian disinformation campaign,” amid claims from House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff suggesting otherwise.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ratcliffe-hunter-biden-laptop-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign

Call Me Jimmy

schmittel wrote: »

The US Director of National Intelligence is not so quick to grant it;

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ratcliffe-hunter-biden-laptop-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign

Well it hasn't even been denied yet, so it's all still in play. Was granting it for the sake of argument because it doesn't make sense to me that if we say Russia is doing everything to get Trump elected that China is doing nothing and nobody is even wondering about their lack of action.

hometruths

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Well it hasn't even been denied yet, so it's all still in play. Was granting it for the sake of argument because it doesn't make sense to me that if we say Russia is doing everything to get Trump elected that China is doing nothing and nobody is even wondering about that.

Yep, probably easier just to grant it for the sake of argument.

I think at this stage it is sensible just to assume the United States is utterly incapable of holding free and fair elections by their own admission. Having exposed themselves as vulnerable in this area, it would be naive to assume that all countries are not trying to influence the outcome.

I suspect there is a top secret bunker in the Curragh, gaming the Irish American vote as we speak.

It seems odd they even bother voting, they should just conduct a straw poll of the preferences of the worlds intelligence agencies to decide who becomes President.

Overheal

schmittel wrote: »

The US Director of National Intelligence is not so quick to grant it;

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ratcliffe-hunter-biden-laptop-emails-not-russian-disinformation-campaign

As referenced in the other thread, DNI Ratcliffe was plucked out of GOP Congressworld to be Trump's yes man. Ratcliffe denies that Russia has interfered in US elections despite his own party declaring otherwise in senate intel reports.

hometruths

Overheal wrote: »

As referenced in the other thread, DNI Ratcliffe was plucked out of GOP Congressworld to be Trump's yes man. Ratcliffe denies that Russia has interfered in US elections despite his own party declaring otherwise in senate intel reports.

So we cannot believe anything he says either I guess?

Call Me Jimmy

Overheal wrote: »

As referenced in the other thread, DNI Ratcliffe was plucked out of GOP Congressworld to be Trump's yes man. Ratcliffe denies that Russia has interfered in US elections despite his own party declaring otherwise in senate intel reports.

If he is lying he has seriously exposed himself now and it's the most incredibly dumb move to make. Enough details and claims have been made that are easily falsifiable either by the Bidens, by the FBI officially or through leaks and yet nothing of substance has even been challenged so far.

I'm surprised the FBI hasn't at least said that either they didn't meet the computer shop guy at all, or they didn't take a laptop from him, or they did but it absolutely wasn't Hunter's. Whatever the truth is.

Overheal

schmittel wrote: »

So we cannot believe anything he says either I guess?

DNI Ratcliffe says he's seen no evidence of Russian Interference in the 2016 election.

The Intelligence Community, ICIG, Even the GOP led senate, have all concluded otherwise, that not only did Russia seek to interfere online but probed our election cyber infrastructure and exerted influence on campaigns (with or without those campaigns collusion).

I'm not putting trust in him personally, no. Him going on Fox News and running his mouth isn't proof of anything substantial.