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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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thefridge2006

HotDudeLife wrote: »

I like how selective you are in choosing 2024 (in an attempt to undermine my contribution to this thread) when my post stated late 2022 and 2023/24. Newsflash, there is not much time between late 2022 and 2023.

May i ask how exactly are you a mod? All you seem to do is try embarrass and vilify posters who expect property prices to drop.

I've said this in the past. Some Mods in here should be ashamed of themselves.

JimmyVik

I would like to officially push out my prediction of a major property price drop to Jan 2022 from my previous one of Jan 2021.
If it hasnt happened by then, make it Jan 2023.
I'll be right in the end. I always am.

Balluba

JimmyVik wrote: »

I would like to officially push out my prediction of a major property price drop to Jan 2022 from my previous one of Jan 2021.
If it hasnt happened by then, make it Jan 2023.
I'll be right in the end. I always am.

I see that the Daft Report/ Oct is published this morning

fliball123

Balluba wrote: »

I see that the Daft Report/ Oct is published this morning

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/house-prices-rise-5percent-as-supply-falls-to-lowest-in-over-a-decade/ar-BB1aa3Za?li=BBr5KbJ&ocid=iehp

wow and here was me being ridiculed continuously over stating that supply is dwindling all the time and that this would impact price as night is dark and day is light both statements are true as is supply vs demand = price ...

So the theories of housing follows the economy ...when did the ecconomy go up by 5% in the last 2 years???? I have said that this time it is different then 2008 the comparisons on here to that crash have been laughable. Add in that Pfizer are hopefully close to getting clearence for a vaccine by next month the doomsayers will be pissing in their cornflakes this morning

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1016/1172037-pfizer-could-file-for-vaccine-clearance-next-month/

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/house-prices-rise-5percent-as-supply-falls-to-lowest-in-over-a-decade/ar-BB1aa3Za?li=BBr5KbJ&ocid=iehp

wow and here was me being ridiculed continuously over stating that supply is dwindling all the time and that this would impact price as night is dark and day is light both statements are true as is supply vs demand = price ...

So the theories of housing follows the economy ...when did the ecconomy go up by 5% in the last 2 years???? I have said that this time it is different then 2008 the comparisons on here to that crash have been laughable. Add in that Pfizer are hopefully close to getting clearence for a vaccine by next month the doomsayers will be pissing in their cornflakes this morning

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1016/1172037-pfizer-could-file-for-vaccine-clearance-next-month/

It's meaningless data - the volume of transactions is less than half of what it was last year for the same period.

Remember, we have not had the covid economic fallout yet as governments are still propping it all up. The economic fallout won't come until restrictions are eased, then a few months later we will see the impact on the property market. Any commentary on the state of the market because of covid, right now, is irrelevant (whether someone says everything is fine or not).

Hubertj

KennisWhale wrote: »

It's meaningless data - the volume of transactions is less than half of what it was last year for the same period.

Remember, we have not had the covid economic fallout yet as governments are still propping it all up. The economic fallout won't come until restrictions are eased, then a few months later we will see the impact on the property market. Any commentary on the state of the market because of covid, right now, is irrelevant (whether someone says everything is fine or not).

i agree with you. But i think the poster is referring to others in the forum constantly stating the crash is imminent. As you correctly said, the dust has to settle before we can understand where prices will fall to.

Balluba

fliball123 wrote: »

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/news/house-prices-rise-5percent-as-supply-falls-to-lowest-in-over-a-decade/ar-BB1aa3Za?li=BBr5KbJ&ocid=iehp

wow and here was me being ridiculed continuously over stating that supply is dwindling all the time and that this would impact price as night is dark and day is light both statements are true as is supply vs demand = price ...

So the theories of housing follows the economy ...when did the ecconomy go up by 5% in the last 2 years???? I have said that this time it is different then 2008 the comparisons on here to that crash have been laughable. Add in that Pfizer are hopefully close to getting clearence for a vaccine by next month the doomsayers will be pissing in their cornflakes this morning

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1016/1172037-pfizer-could-file-for-vaccine-clearance-next-month/

Are you assuming that the Irish public will have confidence in a vaccine that was fast tracked through safety tests?

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

It's meaningless data - the volume of transactions is less than half of what it was last year for the same period.

Remember, we have not had the covid economic fallout yet as governments are still propping it all up. The economic fallout won't come until restrictions are eased, then a few months later we will see the impact on the property market. Any commentary on the state of the market because of covid, right now, is irrelevant (whether someone says everything is fine or not).

Well the volume of transactions is also on the way up I think I heard a poster stating it was down to a third of what it was this time last year a couple of months ago and now its up to half. Look I am not saying buy or sell, but the data to date has proven me right with regards to the supply issue and its impact on current prices. Now what happens when Covid is no longer an issue is anyone guess.

fliball123

Balluba wrote: »

Are you assuming that the Irish public will have confidence in a vaccine that was fast tracked through safety tests?

Well it will be well tested by then sure if you look at history any vaccine has been resisted going back to the likes of the Polio vaccine, apparently Elvis had to be hired to get people taking it. It may take a while a year or 2 but I think if people have to continue living under lockdown rules I reckon the majority will risk it in order to get back to living a normal life

Balluba

fliball123 wrote: »

Well it will be well tested by then sure if you look at history any vaccine has been resisted going back to the likes of the Polio vaccine, apparently Elvis had to be hired to get people taking it. It may take a while a year or 2 but I think if people have to continue living under lockdown rules I reckon the majority will risk it in order to get back to living a normal life

I’m sure Meghan and Harry can be hired this time to persuade us to take it

fliball123

Balluba wrote: »

I’m sure Meghan and Harry can be hired this time to persuade us to take it

Funnily enough I believe the queen is going to be asked to do it.

lalababa

Supply is low. AFAIK and can see there are alot of people awash with money. Ireland is not a poor country. These rich/well off have their own houses BUT as investment goes in Ireland property is always king. If prices drop 5/10 % (which they mightn't ) till be these guys/gals buying the limited stock.
VERSUS
Mini recession due to covid. And all that entails. Not so much money backed demand from people that NEED housing.

The unfortunate trend especially in Ireland is of ever increasing house prices relative to wages. This trend is very worrying, and should be reversed. Can only be reversed by government and private partnerships wanting the same thing. I'm thinking of the Leitrim Architect who put up a 3 bed A rated house in 2008 for 25k + (5-10k labour). Check it out on Irishvernacular.com. ðŸ€”

fago

KennisWhale wrote: »

It's meaningless data - the volume of transactions is less than half of what it was last year for the same period.

Remember, we have not had the covid economic fallout yet as governments are still propping it all up. The economic fallout won't come until restrictions are eased, then a few months later we will see the impact on the property market. Any commentary on the state of the market because of covid, right now, is irrelevant (whether someone says everything is fine or not).

I think it's almost impossible to read anything into asking prices, in my view.

myhome price changes taking a random sampling of 5 pages has 75% reductions, 25% up. I don't know how to square that against the daft report, the source data should be the same.
And then there's also the fiddling that goes on such as a property taken down at 750 and reposted at 685. If 685 is above the current median asking price is that an increase, or because its a relisting is it marked as a decrease?

Only 2 things are reliable - you're properly interested in a place, you ring an auctioneer and they tell you the current offer and go from there against your budget/interest, or look at the PPR

Marius34

KennisWhale wrote: »

It's meaningless data - the volume of transactions is less than half of what it was last year for the same period.

Remember, we have not had the covid economic fallout yet as governments are still propping it all up. The economic fallout won't come until restrictions are eased, then a few months later we will see the impact on the property market. Any commentary on the state of the market because of covid, right now, is irrelevant (whether someone says everything is fine or not).

wrong.
the volume of transactions is around 30% lower, and recovering.

Marius34

fago wrote: »

I think it's almost impossible to read anything into asking prices, in my view.

myhome price changes taking a random sampling of 5 pages has 75% reductions, 25% up. I don't know how to square that against the daft report, the source data should be the same.
And then there's also the fiddling that goes on such as a property taken down at 750 and reposted at 685. If 685 is above the current median asking price is that an increase, or because its a relisting is it marked as a decrease?

Only 2 things are reliable - you're properly interested in a place, you ring an auctioneer and they tell you the current offer and go from there against your budget/interest, or look at the PPR

In stable market I would expect mast majority of price changes to be as reduced, and in rare cases increased. If you can't sell something for defined price, don't see much reasons why would you want to increase asking price.

KennisWhale

Marius34 wrote: »

wrong.
the volume of transactions is around 30% lower, and recovering.

Not wrong at all.

There has been a 40% fall off in transactions in August, which followed (by comparison to the same months in 2019) 40.7% lower in July, 53.6% lower in June, 46% lower in May and 29% lower in April.

PropQueries

Some news on the potential impact of WFH on the commercial property market in the UK:

"Deloitte is planning to close four of its 50 UK offices in the coming months as the coronavirus pandemic has forced the accounting group to cut costs and remote working has reduced its need for expensive property leases."

From same article:

"In August, Capita, a major government outsourcer, revealed it was planning to close more than a third of its 250 offices to allow thousands of its staff to work from home for good."

Link to FT article here: https://www.ft.com/content/1e82aa9e-a982-4e7d-889b-e4bb4d24bb1c

[Deleted User]

lalababa wrote: »

The unfortunate trend especially in Ireland is of ever increasing house prices relative to wages. This trend is very worrying, and should be reversed. €”

We aren't stuck for land in Ireland. There is no reason we cant build enough houses for our small population. It's a failure of policy.

Marius34

KennisWhale wrote: »

Not wrong at all.

There has been a 40% fall off in transactions in August, which followed (by comparison to the same months in 2019) 40.7% lower in July, 53.6% lower in June, 46% lower in May and 29% lower in April.

This is not all transactions, just some that are filled with revenue, that we don't know well what that even mean. The actual transactions from PPR is just around 30% lower in volumes.

Even with this data provided about revenue, would be wrong to say that transactions are less than half, as this happened for one month only.

PropQueries

Deleted User wrote: »

We aren't stuck for land in Ireland. There is no reason we cant build enough houses for our small population. It's a failure of policy.

Or is it a success of policy? Developers do actually like to build. The only roadblocks routinely put in their way is government policy.

For example, in the Irish Times today: 'Johnny Ronan loses out in court battle on 13-storey docklands plan'

"The High Court has overturned a fresh grant of permission by An Bord Pleanála for increased height of two blocks of apartments in a development of 500 apartments/co-living spaces in the north Dublin docklands."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/johnny-ronan-loses-out-in-court-battle-on-13-storey-docklands-plan-1.4384899

Browney7

fago wrote: »

I think it's almost impossible to read anything into asking prices, in my view.

myhome price changes taking a random sampling of 5 pages has 75% reductions, 25% up. I don't know how to square that against the daft report, the source data should be the same.
And then there's also the fiddling that goes on such as a property taken down at 750 and reposted at 685. If 685 is above the current median asking price is that an increase, or because its a relisting is it marked as a decrease?

Only 2 things are reliable - you're properly interested in a place, you ring an auctioneer and they tell you the current offer and go from there against your budget/interest, or look at the PPR

I'd expect the increase in the HTB from 20k to 30k has probably influenced figures also. Any new build property added to Daft in the period will be priced based on the new HTB so a house that was 300k previously which would have been eligible for 15k HTB would now be eligible for 30k HTB so likely increase to 315k which is a 5% bump. Looking at the infographic, places like Laois, KK, Meath and Kildare showed large jumps in asking prices. The impact of this regulatory change on demand also can't be overlooked - if you had 10000 people ready to buy with at least a 5% deposit saved, a new cohort of people entered into the "ready to buy" category who may have had little or no savings but with above average salaries so could get approval for loan amounts.

cnocbui

Deleted User wrote: »

We aren't stuck for land in Ireland. There is no reason we cant build enough houses for our small population. It's a failure of policy.

Is it a failure of policy or is that just the way it is in big cities?

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Is it a failure of policy or is that just the way it is in big cities?

I would say it's a failure of policy, or a success of policy depending on ones view of the Government's misuse of the land they own within the cities.

For example, David McWilliams wrote an article recently where he stated:

"Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines is perfect for development. It constitutes 42 acres of residential land. The Defence Forces alone maintain some 20,000 acres in total across the state for training purposes – surely less valuable land can be made available in a swap with the Army?"

Why does the army require 42 acres in Rathmines? It couldn't be more central. How many high density social housing units could be built on that site alone? A properly designed social housing development there would probably solve all problems within 2 years.

Link to David McWilliams article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/why-an-irish-mortgage-costs-e80k-more-than-a-german-one/

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

Some news on the potential impact of WFH on the commercial property market in the UK:

"Deloitte is planning to close four of its 50 UK offices in the coming months as the coronavirus pandemic has forced the accounting group to cut costs and remote working has reduced its need for expensive property leases."

Talk I hear of the London region is that if there is a return to offices, it is going to be a larger number of smaller offices in the towns that are dotted around the commuter belt. The number of high street cafes now in places like Berkhamsted is insane while they are closing down left-right-centre in the big cities.

Not sure how it applies to Dublin though.

GreeBo

cnocbui wrote: »

Is it a failure of policy or is that just the way it is in big cities?

It's just the way it is when you have a limited resource and high demand.

GreeBo

PropQueries wrote: »

I would say it's a failure of policy, or a success of policy depending on ones view of the Government's misuse of the land they own within the cities.

For example, David McWilliams wrote an article recently where he stated:

"Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines is perfect for development. It constitutes 42 acres of residential land. The Defence Forces alone maintain some 20,000 acres in total across the state for training purposes – surely less valuable land can be made available in a swap with the Army?"

Why does the army require 42 acres in Rathmines? It couldn't be more central. How many high density social housing units could be built on that site alone? A properly designed social housing development there would probably solve all problems within 2 years.

Link to David McWilliams article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/why-an-irish-mortgage-costs-e80k-more-than-a-german-one/

ok, but follow that idea through.
Build housing on every square inch of land in Dublin, at *some* point you have no more land and yet in an increasing population you still have demand....now what?

It's always going to be supply vs demand and with housing, increasing supply actually increases the demand as the units get cheaper so more people want them.

Its not possible to solve this, no where has.

JimmyVik

GreeBo wrote: »

ok, but follow that idea through.
Build housing on every square inch of land in Dublin, at *some* point you have no more land and yet in an increasing population you still have demand....now what?

It's always going to be supply vs demand and with housing, increasing supply actually increases the demand as the units get cheaper so more people want them.

Its not possible to solve this, no where has.

Very good point.
Are we Irish, somehow going to be the first to solve this problem

Bubbaclaus

KennisWhale wrote: »

Not wrong at all.

There has been a 40% fall off in transactions in August, which followed (by comparison to the same months in 2019) 40.7% lower in July, 53.6% lower in June, 46% lower in May and 29% lower in April.

But you said transactions were less than half, so which is it?

Coyler

So follow your logic the other way then, what's the point of building anything because the demand will always be met?

GreeBo

Coyler wrote: »

So follow your logic the other way then, what's the point of building anything because the demand will always be met?

Whats the point of hospitals as everyone dies.
Different people build for different reasons, most to make money, others to give people a place to live.