Timing belt wrote: » When it comes to your conspiracy theory on investment funds it is like trying to talk to Gemma O'Doherty about Covid. Your are entitled to your opinion as Gemma O'Doherty is entitled to her opinion on Covid. It doesn't mean that everyone needs to agree with you.
PropQueries wrote: » The foreign banks back then pulled their money. The investment funds can perform a very similar trick today. Both have the same impact on the property market.
Timing belt wrote: » Every man and there dog can see that the global economy is on its knees thanks to covid and the stress to the system is 100 times that of 2008. The big difference is that Governments/Central Banks have taken action early to prevent a repeat of 2008. Whilst nearly everyone agrees that the action taken will be sufficient for a short sharp contraction not everyone is convinced that it will be sufficient for a longer term contraction. People that keep talking about banks being bailed out again but need to see that central banks and governments are bailing out the economy before it get's a chance to hit the banks. The Central banks and governments have gone all in as they know that if it blows the fall out will be worse than 2008 so have noting to loose. Only time will tell if the action taken is sufficient. Obviously people will have different views on whether it will work or not and for that reason will have different views on where they see the housing market going. Comparing the current housing market to 2008 is misleading as it is a very different dynamic this time around.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Exactly this, i made a remark that i predict a drop of around 10-15% in property by this time next year and a huge economic crash (which there already is) and was labelled the same and laughed at on here, one such smug mod posted a reply similar to "sure you might be right eventually" (despite that being my first timeline prediction). People have very short memories and ignorance is well and truly bliss in 2020, i suspect those shooting down and defending claims are just desperate property owners or investors who made bad decisions and purchased at the wrong time.
Timing belt wrote: » The foreign banks pulling out of the Irish market only reduced competition on the mortgage market and did not have an impact on house prices. If Ulster bank sell there mortgage book (21bn) and exit the Irish market that does not mean that whoever buys the loan book buys 21bn of property. Sorry for being blunt but you do not know what you are talking about.
Vieira82 wrote: » don't know if this was shared before but would like to know but it's related to this topic:https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40063946.html
Marius34 wrote: » I wouldn't call 10% in property price fall, a huge crash.
Hubertj wrote: » i think a 10%-15% drop in prices over a 12 month period would be a significant correction?
HotDudeLife wrote: » Patience my friend, play the long game. This house of cards won't be standing much longer, huge crash coming in 2021-2022.
schmittel wrote: » Indeed it would. And if that occurred no doubt you'd have a number of posters on here like Marius saying "I told you it would not be significant, 10% falls totally expected, exactly as I said all along, I am right as usual"
fliball123 wrote: » well we will have to wait and see but people saying a crash is imminent in the most have been saying it for 9 months and it has not come to pass and the budget will keep things ticking along for the next 12 months or so..Hopefully there will be a cure found in that time and students and tourists will come back
fliball123 wrote: » Has the market dropped by 10% yet? Did I miss something?
PropQueries wrote: » By foreign banks you know I meant the money foreign banks lent to the Irish banks to lend into the Irish market. The foreign banks back then pulled their money. The investment funds can perform a very similar trick today. Both have the same impact on the property market.
Timing belt wrote: » The reason I gave ulster bank as an example is to show how crazy your theory on investment funds is as by your reckoning they buy property and not loans. You have avoided this as you know that you are unable to back it up. The issue in 2008 was that there was cheap credit and plenty of it and this found its way into the mortgages. This time around there is cheap credit and plenty of it (Backed by the ECB) but it has not found its way into the mortgage market. (See the data from the central bank in the graph)
Marius34 wrote: » I told at the beginning of crisis that I expect around -5% property prices lower, which is not that far from 0% or -10%, but it is very far from -30% crash, that many was forecasting back than.
Bubbaclaus wrote: » There was somebody in this thread predicting 70% crash last week. Could buy a 500k home for 150 then!
PropQueries wrote: » It's impossible to back up what comprised of the €200 billion in property and business loans the investment funds purchased between 2012 and 2016 due to the secrecy of those deals. But, it's reasonable to assume that it mostly comprised of property investment and property related loans as the banks weren't exactly eager to sell their performing non-property related loans. Once the investment funds owned the loans, they owned the assets that those same loans were secured on unless of course the developers and other property investors did indeed manage to repay those loans. Maybe all those property developers in rural Ireland did repay all those loans. Entirely possible but not very probable.
PropQueries wrote: » In relation to the ECB cash finding its way into the mortgage market. It may not have found its way into the mortgage market, but I would guess you would agree that it has found its way into the property market via the back-door?
Marius34 wrote: » It definitely would mean a significant correction/fall, but this would not be enough to destroy a whole Property market. I believe most residential construction companies and banks would handle 10-15% fall. Which I wouldn't call a huge crash. I was referring to comment:
plibige wrote: » Would it be fair to say we are still to close to the event to actually have a good idea where its going? Like on the one hand there is tremendous demand due to lack of supply. Also due to covid people are saving far more so there will inevitably be a lot of ability to buy whenever things do get back to some sort of normality. On the other hand the economy has been put into a semi self induced coma. Some sectors are still doing well, others are close to wiped out. When the government funding does stop these sectors either going to struggle at best, or some businesses will close all together. This will have a knock on affect to other parts of the economy, naturally. Which in turn could affect peoples ability to borrow in the short to medium term. Like I can easily say "I think it could dip by 10% -15%" but it could easily not and just stagnate. Then again it could be far worse. And then there could be no dip at all. Am I wrong in saying "until the government takes the economy off life support, we can't actually predict where this is going" And just FYI I am hoping for a 10-15% dip for selfish reasons
PropQueries wrote: » I wouldn't entirely dismiss it. Depends over what timeframe they are looking at. It's well known here that I would be in a similar prediction camp, but over a 5 - 10 year timeframe. I've never denied that.
HotDudeLife wrote: » If i had to put my money where my mouth is i think that most 3 bed semis in Dublin that are currently selling for 350k will be going for around 275k by 2023/24. A serious correction is long overdue and anyone buying now (if they absolutely don't have to) is completely mad.
plibige wrote: » Would it be fair to say we are still to close to the event to actually have a good idea where its going? Like on the one hand there is tremendous demand due to lack of supply. Also due to covid people are saving far more so there will inevitably be a lot of ability to buy whenever things do get back to some sort of normality. On the other hand the economy has been put into a semi self induced coma. Some sectors are still doing well, others are close to wiped out. When the government funding does stop these sectors either going to struggle at best, or some businesses will close all together. This will have a knock on affect to other parts of the economy, naturally. Which in turn could affect peoples ability to borrow in the short to medium term. Like I can easily say "I think it could dip by 10% -15%" but it could easily not and just stagnate. Then again it could be far worse. And then there could be no dip at all.Am I wrong in saying "until the government takes the economy off life support, we can't actually predict where this is going" And just FYI I am hoping for a 10-15% dip for selfish reasons
Timing belt wrote: » Unless you are a 100% cash buyer it will be as difficult to buy a 275k house in 2023/24 as it is to buy a 350k house today if your prediction is correct.
