schmittel wrote: » scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months.
fliball123 wrote: » So just out of curiosity I know we have had our differences but what would you do to solve it? NOt attacking you now or anything!
schmittel wrote: » 100% is unachievable because there will always be a number who would just rather live outside the system and are beyond help for a variety of reasons. For the rest the high cost of rent is the most significant cause of homelessness. It is government policies that have caused the high rents. These policies have broadly benefited middle class voters. That's what I mean. We have the ability to radically reduce the homelessness problem, but don't seem to want to do it.
fliball123 wrote: » In Fairness we are one of the most generous when it comes to the poor in this country there will be some who slip through the cracks but then again show me one other country in the world that has 100% of their poor and population housed?
Wanderer78 wrote: » Generous, how exactly?
fliball123 wrote: In Fairness we are one of the most generous when it comes to the poor in this country there will be some who slip through the cracks but then again show me one other country in the world that has 100% of their poor and population housed?
schmittel wrote: We get the governments we deserve. Their policies are influenced by the voters.
schmittel wrote: » We get the governments we deserve. Their policies are influenced by the voters. We can wail all we like about the poor homeless and children sleeping in cars, but in reality the voting majority are happy the government has their back and not the poor people!
Hubertj wrote: » Makes perfect sense but sadly doesn’t sound like this will ever be achieved in Ireland. Whoever is in government will just keep interfering in different ways, then governments change, policy changes, more interference, and on and on and on
Hubertj wrote: Makes perfect sense but sadly doesn’t sound like this will ever be achieved in Ireland. Whoever is in government will just keep interfering in different ways, then governments change, policy changes, more interference, and on and on and on
schmittel wrote: » When I think of a functioning market I think of true price discovery - supply and demand meeting with limited interference. eg. in a functioning market you might find people panic buying because strong economic fundamentals indicate the price will be much higher next year. Clearly in a property market there is always going to be some govt input, but our market is broken because of too much interference that is compounding the existing problems with unintended, but largely foreseeable consequences. eg. in a non functioning market people are panic buying because weak economic fundamentals indicate they might not have a job next year. The result is a housing crisis entirely of the govt's making, and the more policies they introduce to alleviate the problems they have caused, the worse the situation gets.
KennisWhale wrote: » It's probably unpopular to say but IMO homelessness is an industry while actual honelessness is a tragic story of drug addiction ans/or mental illness. SF and other PBP types are populist, but more importantly are left wing so would do more damage to the housing market if allowed to. That being said, if FF and FG don't work together to at least help renters (who are younger people) then more will flock to the leftie loonies in the next election. In a post-Brexit world with pressure coming down on MNCs, who knows what state the country will be in with the loonies in charge of the exchequer purse strings.
fliball123 wrote: » So are you telling me that the government are just hiving off property and not actually using it even do we have a housing crisis and a fairly long housing waiting list. If the properties your talking about are in use then they are simply not for sale and has to be excluded from the supply side for availability for others to buy. But yes I think the government are swaying the market , but you have to put this in context of what every left leaning group are saying about homelessness sure look at the rise of Sinn Fein on the whole housing as a right approach. I am not saying its right but like everything else in society once someone is given something its very hard to take it away
Duke of Url wrote: » I have bought a house in a new estate this year and at least 90% are privately owned.
KennisWhale wrote: » The government cannot keep buying up properties or taking on leases of the BTLs which aren't going into the purchase market. They don't have the money to do this. But the main point is that the supply is there but the properties are not being put up for sale as there have been government measures to prevent the supply hitting the home buyer's market. Month to month, particularly in a pandemic lockdown with dramatically reduced transaction numbers does not present any meaningful data. The YoY is more suitable.
enricoh wrote: » Surely the only thing keeping house prices from falling is the government buying so many. Can't find the link but government money bought every second house sold in new estates this year in Dublin and 40% nationally. With big financial potholes to fill with covid and brexit these figures can't be sustained - can they ?!!
fliball123 wrote: » No you cant counter with that as the figure is still getting smaller even with all of the airbnb and student accommodation coming into play at the start of the pandemic the amount of property for sale has gone down even more from June till now, so its not bringing up the supply side as one would have thought. Not sure if people are putting them into the rental side I did see a bit of a jump in numbers for rent so that is where some of them are going or just keeping them vacant but they sure as hell are not having an impact on the supply side. Well if price growth is dead then why has prices been going up as that is what has happened in the last 3 consecutive months?? as seen with the report today?
KennisWhale wrote: » Supply on MyHome, ah I see. Well, I would counter that hy arguing that supply has come in the form of BTL but the State has intercepted it before it got to the private market;https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-one-in-five-new-build-homes-is-now-being-snapped-up-by-state-38082140.html Additionally, in respect of properties which aren't new builds, look at the State seeking to buy these up too: https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/ This goes back to my argument that the government interference since the crash of 2008 has contributed in a large way to house prices rebounding but they can't perpetually throw money at the market in order to stop it trying to correct. Price growth is dead and it is correcting as we see with the reports today. This is going to continue. However, it's not to say that transactions won't increase from the low levels this year so those in the industry from builders to surveyors to auctioneers to EAs to banks will still be busy.
awec wrote: » Huge crash coming next year*.* repeat every year.
fliball123 wrote: » Have a quick look at myhome from the Start of June 2019 there is about 5k less properties available now then there was then.https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-crisis-set-to-worsen-as-sellers-delay-bringing-homes-to-market-1.4293559 Myhome has had free advertising on it for the last 8/9 months so anyone selling a property or at least 99% of them would most likely use a tool that is very well known to EAs , buyers and sellers alike. Add in the delays in new construction due to Covid and the added time lines this brings. Some have come in on time and some have not..https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-slump-could-delay-building-of-300000-homeshttps://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/covid-19-will-delay-housing-construction-but-for-how-longhttps://www.nelsonslaw.co.uk/delayed-construction-coronavirus/ Add in we could well be going back into lockdown and the sites will be closed again unless the government give them essential service staff status
Official figures show approximately one in every five newly built residential properties was snapped up by a combination of local authorities and taxpayer-funded housing bodies last year [2018]. In some counties the State is snapping up more than half of all new homes in estates.
KennisWhale wrote: » "I don't see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is on the decrease". Not sure where you get this from, maybe elaborate?
fliball123 wrote: » Ehh no I dont see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is actually on the decrease. So your saying we had an 6-8 year dead cat bounce really I thought the dead cat bounce was a short term effect as in a few months?Must be some Cat?
KennisWhale wrote: » This is actually something that has more to it than would appear. House prices have not grown in around 15 years despite heavy government interference in the market to try to prop up prices (H2B and mortgage holder eviction protections) and despite nothing being built for the guts of 5-8 years. I would argue the price increases since 2012 have somewhat of a dead cat bounce feel to them in this context, that the combination of government interference and lack of supply have caused them to claw back some of the losses after 2008. But the fact of the matter is that house prices are back to where they were around 2005, no growth in 15 years. Unless the mortgage lending limits are increased prices should start to fall back the next few years as affordability appears to have taken hold and supply is slowly but surely coming on stream. I would argue this to be the case irrespective of covid as this may be a stress test that quickens the correction although who knows how covid will affect the market, it's still early and we have not a lot of transactions to work off.
Graham wrote: » or house prices are still almost 20% lower than they were about 15 years ago
Hubertj wrote: » Will take a look at the kbc report. I remember it from earlier in year thanks. “Functioning” didn’t mean I think Irish market is working, far form it clearly. I meant what is “functioning”?
Ush1 wrote: » Why? Plenty of grand private estates in Tallaght.
Dwarf.Shortage wrote: » Long story short, no.
