Bubbaclaus wrote: » If you took the average price of a house 25 years ago (pre celtic tiger) and compared it to today I wonder what the average growth in price was. There have been big swings in both ways, but you would probably get a somewhat normal average annual growth rate for the last quarter century.
cnocbui wrote: » Well I am hoping to sell my house bought 18 years ago - a one off out in the country - and I am not anticipating making any profit.
Bubbaclaus wrote: » Actually, property prices rose slightly between July and August. It is the YoY figure that fell, but prices actually creeped upwards slightly in both Dublin and in the country as a whole for August compared to the month prior.Always easy to package the data in a way that suits an agenda.
fliball123 wrote: » Prices have increased 3 months in a row you can hardly say the are currently falling
schmittel wrote: » Indeed, as your post so neatly demonstrates.
Smouse156 wrote: » Year on yeah they fell! Think it’s the only useful comparison whether they rise or fall. Month on month has seasonality effects. My reading is the market is basically stable since it peeked in late 2018
fliball123 wrote: » What that prices have gone up 2/3 months in a row in the worst pandemic to hit the world and that the government has just implemented a budget that has no cuts or tax increases for those working and will keep people who have lost their jobs (mostly those on the lower wage) on the covid payments so much for the doom and gloom. Prices wont be heading south after that budget for the next 6 to 12 months. Now those who have been comparing the crash of 08 will see that this time it is different and fundamentally its different in the way the government are handling it as in the foreseen cuts and tax increases to pay for Covid did not come to pass well at least for this budget. Also there the budget was based on no cure being found next year and a no deal Brexit.
schmittel wrote: » I think the point of the post went over your head, not for the first time.
Graham wrote: » Never could understand the interest only approach to property investment to be honest, unless the intention was a quick flip in what was a rapidly rising market.
Bubbaclaus wrote: » Not sure what you are trying to imply there, but as the facts show, property prices in Ireland have increased in each of the last 3 months. If that is signs of a plunging market then sign me up.
schmittel wrote: » I’m not trying to imply anything. Simply stating a fact. If you think Irish times are packaging data to suit an agenda by pointing out house prices have fallen year on year then it follows you are engaged in exactly the same agenda driven packaging by saying they have increased month on month.
Bubbaclaus wrote: » Actually what I was doing was just giving the hard data that property prices have increased per the CSO report in each of the last 3 months, which means there is no indication of property prices falling a lot, or even at all, due to COVID.
schmittel wrote: » As per the Irish times article there is plenty of indication of property prices falling, maybe not a lot and not everywhere, but there are indications of falls nonetheless.
fliball123 wrote: » so 3 months of price increases in your head equals prices falling?? OK I think we will just have to agree to disagree
fliball123 wrote: » Arse it is 3 months during the worst pandemic ever its gone up in 3 consecutive months after a marginal drop most of which happened pre-covid and that is meaningless REALLY???? Well lets see which way it goes if there is another increase over the next 3 months will you be still spinning this? I do agree it has been stable for the last 2 years or so but the drops predicted on here by some are not going to happen for at least another 12 months after the budget
schmittel wrote: » Nothing here to agree or disagree on. 3 months of price increases equals prices rising month on month - I.e prices in August were higher than they were in July. The Irish times article is concerned with year on year. I.e in some places eg Dublin city prices were lower in August 2020 than they were in August 2019. This is not complicated stuff to understand.
Hubertj wrote: » in other countries with a "functioning" property market, how do prices fluctuate over times - is it +/-5%? What countries have a functioning market to compare against? So when Ireland has a functioning property market (in 2150), how will prices fluctuate?
schmittel wrote: » Not sure to be honest, I would doubt it is +/- 5% yoy, that seems very high. I guess some of Irish the figures from Aug 19 - Aug 20 would be considered in normal range. Have a look at KBC report at outbreak of Covid - their base case for Ireland was in 2020 was a drop of 12% in 2020 followed by rise of 8% in 2021. Meanwhile they said Belgium would drop by 3%, then by 2%. Granted, it looks like they got their predictions wrong. But it is hard to escape the conclusion they feel Ireland is significantly more volatile than other markets, for whatever reason. You put functioning in quotation marks. Are you of the opinion that the market here is functioning ok. As in no need for quotation marks?!
Dwarf.Shortage wrote: » Long story short, no.
Ush1 wrote: » Why? Plenty of grand private estates in Tallaght.
Hubertj wrote: » Will take a look at the kbc report. I remember it from earlier in year thanks. “Functioning” didn’t mean I think Irish market is working, far form it clearly. I meant what is “functioning”?
