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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Dwarf.Shortage

So houses in west Kinsealy seem a very good value proposition then? I will be concentrating more on that area going forward.

Had been looking at Donabate (bit of a small and pokey town centre) and Malahide (v stretching budget wise, would be an apartment not a house if I went with it). But going forward I'll broaden the mind a bit.

Beigepaint

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Though in County Dublin these are both commuter belt competitors in my book, you'd find it easier to get to city centre from Leixlip or Celbridge.

I have noticed Kinsealy is very competitive price wise, this in particular caught my eye https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-20-drynam-drive-drynam-hall-kinsealy-co-dublin/2610519

Less than 10km from city centre, what am I missing? Kinsealy isn't particularly rough from what I have heard.

Directly under the flight path for aircraft taking off and landing. Could be noise considerations.

Dwarf.Shortage

Beigepaint wrote: »

Directly under the flight path for aircraft taking off and landing. Could be noise considerations.

Ahhh, I think this might be it. I know the sort of noise levels you'd be talking from the few times I've played golf in Portmarnock, they're already very loud then and Kinsealy is closer again to the airport.

I might head out there someday for a coffee and just generally knock around for a while, see how bad it is.

tobsey

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Ahhh, I think this might be it. I know the sort of noise levels you'd be talking from the few times I've played golf in Portmarnock, they're already very loud then and Kinsealy is closer again to the airport.

I might head out there someday for a coffee and just generally knock around for a while, see how bad it is.

I live near there now and the noise is completely unnoticeable. However the new runway has the path half as far away as the current runway. It won’t be directly overhead but probably will be more noticeable. Also the area is on the main landing path rather than take off so it is quieter. If the winds are from the east it will be on the take off path, but that’s rare enough.

House Hunt

tobsey wrote: »

I live near there now and the noise is completely unnoticeable. However the new runway has the path half as far away as the current runway. It won’t be directly overhead but probably will be more noticeable. Also the area is on the main landing path rather than take off so it is quieter. If the winds are from the east it will be on the take off path, but that’s rare enough.

For decades, the industry has been working to reduce noise, with significant progress: noise levels have halved in the past 10 years. It is estimated that the noise footprint of each new generation of aircraft is at least 15% lower than previous models.

[Deleted User]

Beigepaint wrote: »

Directly under the flight path for aircraft taking off and landing. Could be noise considerations.

You wouldn't even notice the planes after a week or so.

Milena009

bubblypop wrote: »

You wouldn't even notice the planes after a week or so.

That's very good point

I was always dismissing idea of Swords / Surrounds like Kinsealy precisely cause it is close enough to airport and such.

Need to expand my map.

[Deleted User]

I could see the airport from my bedroom window growing up, the planes never ever bothered me. You're barely aware of them.

JimmyVik

Milena009 wrote: »

That's very good point
I was always dismissing idea of Swords / Surrounds like Kinsealy precisely cause it is close enough to airport and such.

Need to expand my map.

I lived beside the dart line. Within 30 feet of it.
First week I was woken every morning by trains and every night by that cleaning train that kept going by.
Second week I was woken the odd time.
After that I never noticed a train again.
Some people would be in the house and say to me, is that a train going by. I would say - Is what a train going by?

I lived in Kinsealy for a while too. Right under the planes. Same story.

If I got a bargain that had plane or train noise now it wouldnt bother me in the least. I would consider it a plus to get money off it because others didnt ever have the experience I did and already live near it.

You definitely go totally deaf to noises that are regular your soundscape.
There are probably studies done on it all over the world.
But if it saves you a few thousand, go for it.

donnaille

Milena009 wrote: »

That's very good point
I was always dismissing idea of Swords / Surrounds like Kinsealy precisely cause it is close enough to airport and such.

Need to expand my map.

Perhaps best to spend some time out there though, as you mentioned, as unfortunately some people never become accustomed to the noise (raises hand).

I lived in a lovely area of south London (Fulham) for just over a year, which is directly under a Heathrow flight path, and it's something that I just couldn't block out. It wasn't our main reason for leaving the area, but it was a contributor.

JimmyCorkhill

While currently not looking to buy as cannot afford, I really feel for those looking to buy especially when more & more money gets ploughed into social housing.

I would much rather see that money being used by the Government to build their own houses and sell at cost price or thereabouts to those people out there working hard, being forced to rent but wanting to buy and have reasonable savings and an ability to get a mortgage but due to the ridiculous cost of houses they cannot afford to have their own place.

The help to buy scheme for FTB is say 30k max, a social house for someone not arsed is worth a lot more than that over the terms of their tenancy. Rewarding the lazy and wasters over those working and trying to survive. Granted, some social housing is deserved for certain individuals due to their situation, but alot just play the system.

tigger123

JimmyVik wrote: »

I lived beside the dart line. Within 30 feet of it.
First week I was woken every morning by trains and every night by that cleaning train that kept going by.
Second week I was woken the odd time.
After that I never noticed a train again.
Some people would be in the house and say to me, is that a train going by. I would say - Is what a train going by?

I lived in Kinsealy for a while too. Right under the planes. Same story.

If I got a bargain that had plane or train noise now it wouldnt bother me in the least. I would consider it a plus to get money off it because others didnt ever have the experience I did and already live near it.

You definitely go totally deaf to noises that are regular your soundscape.
There are probably studies done on it all over the world.
But if it saves you a few thousand, go for it.

I'd definitely second that. I used to live close to a flight path near the airport and you hardly notice it after a while. Definitely wouldn't be ruling a property out because of it.

fliball123

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Examples?

Have a look in areas like

Tallaght, Finglas, Donaghmede, Kilbarrack, Ballymun, Swords, Blanchardstown, Clondalkin, Balbriggan, Rush, Lusk, Donabate, Portrane and other areas like this.. 300k goes a long way if you want to be further in Dublin or want a seaview then you will have to up your price

KennisWhale

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/glass-bottle-company-site-affordable-homes-funding-focus-of-doubt-1.4378115

Glass Bottle Company site affordable homes funding focus of doubt
No ‘commercial agreement’ reached for 600-plus housing unit plan, Nama says

In a letter seen by The Irish Times, the agency says “Despite Nama’s best efforts” no “commercial agreement” had been reached between Dublin City Council and the Department of Housing for the affordable homes the Government in 2017 committed to fund.

This is something which appears to have drifted under the radar. By way of recap, the Glass Bottle Company site was agreed to be sold to a Johnny Ronan lead consortium of bidders including Colony Capital (who have been in bother in the US and are seeking to offload some Irish properties) back in July. The site, we are told, has the potential for 3500 homes. There has been silence the past few months since the agreement was announced.

Just this week, 1am on Monday morning, the IT published the above story which, to be honest, I am a bit shocked about. The Department of Housing, DCC and NAMA have been dragging their feet on together agreeing on funding for 650 social homes on the site for over 2 years. The article essentially provides that there is still no deal. The delay to deliver so many new homes in an area so close to the city centre should be a priority and I do not understand why they are dragging their heels. The entities' inaction is contributing in part to pumping up the Irish property market into bubble territory (again) at a cost to many.

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Examples?

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/house-for-sale?maxprice=300000&minbeds=3
There is 366

brisan

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Though in County Dublin these are both commuter belt competitors in my book, you'd find it easier to get to city centre from Leixlip or Celbridge.

I have noticed Kinsealy is very competitive price wise, this in particular caught my eye https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-20-drynam-drive-drynam-hall-kinsealy-co-dublin/2610519

Less than 10km from city centre, what am I missing? Kinsealy isn't particularly rough from what I have heard.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/67-grange-lodge-avenue-clongriffin-dublin-13/4457011
Not a bad house and 5 min walk to the Dart station

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

I lived beside the dart line. Within 30 feet of it.
First week I was woken every morning by trains and every night by that cleaning train that kept going by.
Second week I was woken the odd time.
After that I never noticed a train again.
Some people would be in the house and say to me, is that a train going by. I would say - Is what a train going by?

I lived in Kinsealy for a while too. Right under the planes. Same story.

If I got a bargain that had plane or train noise now it wouldnt bother me in the least. I would consider it a plus to get money off it because others didnt ever have the experience I did and already live near it.

You definitely go totally deaf to noises that are regular your soundscape.
There are probably studies done on it all over the world.
But if it saves you a few thousand, go for it.

Donaghmede?
I grew up facing the train station
When the Beller went past we would run out to see it
After a few weeks we never heard it

cubatahavana

brisan wrote: »

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/67-grange-lodge-avenue-clongriffin-dublin-13/4457011
Not a bad house and 5 min walk to the Dart station

15 min to the airport, number 15 into town less than 5 min walk (24 hour bus). 4 new bus lines (one to the airport) planned

Clongriffin is a nice place to live. Have lived there for 10+ years (on that same street)

Balluba

JimmyCorkhill wrote: »

While currently not looking to buy as cannot afford, I really feel for those looking to buy especially when more & more money gets ploughed into social housing.

I would much rather see that money being used by the Government to build their own houses and sell at cost price or thereabouts to those people out there working hard, being forced to rent but wanting to buy and have reasonable savings and an ability to get a mortgage but due to the ridiculous cost of houses they cannot afford to have their own place.

The help to buy scheme for FTB is say 30k max, a social house for someone not arsed is worth a lot more than that over the terms of their tenancy. Rewarding the lazy and wasters over those working and trying to survive. Granted, some social housing is deserved for certain individuals due to their situation, but alot just play the system.

I have read that Twink is in danger again of losing her house in South Co. Dublin due to losing work because of Covid

nerrad01

I just lost out on my dream place this morning to a cash buyer, the seller wouldnt even take a higher bid, just went straight with the cash buyer at asking price, very difficult market with the lack of properties in desirable areas.

I had previously thought we would see a drop but cant see it happening at all now. A quick look on auctioneera and its clear that every thing is going above asking.

PropQueries

The Irish media appear to be giving the Government a very easy ride around the massive increase in our debt levels. The debate seems to be around our Debt to GDP levels and no mention of GNI* which I thought all the experts were agreed gave us a much better understanding of the potential impact of our current debt levels.

According to the economist David Ricardo: "Ricardian equivalence is an economic theory that argues that attempts to stimulate an economy by increasing debt-financed government spending are doomed to failure because demand remains unchanged. The theory argues that consumers will save any money they receive in order to pay for the future tax increases they expect to be levied in order to pay off the debt.". He came up with this in the early 19th century.

According to the Irish Times in July 2019:

"How big is our national debt?

It’s just over €200 billion. On a per capita basis that’s the third highest in the world, eclipsed only by the US and Japan. It equates to €42,000 for every man, woman and child in the State or nearly €90,000 for every worker in the economy."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-200bn-debt-burden-how-did-we-get-here-1.3943085

So, back to the Ricardian equivalence above. Will some potential property investors now pull out as they may realise they're a prime candidate for a probable future tax grab? Companies and workers can and will most likely move out of Ireland if taxes do increase considerably to pay for this debt. Land/property can't be moved.

Balluba

CorkRed93 wrote: »

Yep noticing the same. https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

Hard to see any crash when 2nd hand homes are going for this kind of money.
Nice area and good spec but for that money you'd buy a new build in same area cheaper + have HTB on top of it? paying 50k extra for a bit of garden space?

This house was probably undervalued to attract a bidding war.It is within a 15 minute walk of Cork City centre, it has been recently renovated, it has a good size back garden, and it is bright and spacious.
Also after a survey is carried out the cash purchasers are in a good position to negotiate downwards if any defects are found.

combat14

the tiniest of ripples... just on the cusp of winter a possible second covid shutdown, hard Brexit, international changes to digital corporation taxes in the offing, massive increased govt borrowing both here and internationally (which has to be paid back) and a slew of green taxes to come...

Property prices fall for second month

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/property-prices-fall-for-second-month-39623446.html

Dwarf.Shortage

fliball123 wrote: »

Have a look in areas like

Tallaght, Finglas, Donaghmede, Kilbarrack, Ballymun, Swords, Blanchardstown, Clondalkin, Balbriggan, Rush, Lusk, Donabate, Portrane and other areas like this.. 300k goes a long way if you want to be further in Dublin or want a seaview then you will have to up your price

Long story short, no.

brisan

nerrad01 wrote: »

I just lost out on my dream place this morning to a cash buyer, the seller wouldnt even take a higher bid, just went straight with the cash buyer at asking price, very difficult market with the lack of properties in desirable areas.

I had previously thought we would see a drop but cant see it happening at all now. A quick look on auctioneera and its clear that every thing is going above asking.

Auctionneera either get it well below or well above the market value
I have seen houses on there for 6 months and not a bid
I have seen houses for 395k on there going for 332k
They get as much wrong as they do right

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/88-grange-abbey-crescent-donaghmede-dublin-d13-k6f5

https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/73-belmayne-avenue-parkside-balgriffin-dublin-d13-h2wn

Both of those properties are months on the market and no bid
Any other EA would have got the vendor to drop the asking price

Shoden

To those who were arguing about whether a downward trend was on the way a few pages ago. I spent months thinking that prices were about to drop. Then I had a realisation, those who were employed in sectors that were hit the worst: hospitality, tourism, entertainment etc aren't your typical mortgage candidates, and those in steady jobs had nothing to do but save for months!

Billythekid19

Shoden wrote: »

To those who were arguing about whether a downward trend was on the way a few pages ago. I spent months thinking that prices were about to drop. Then I had a realisation, those who were employed in sectors that were hit the worst: hospitality, tourism, entertainment etc aren't your typical mortgage candidates, and those in steady jobs had nothing to do but save for months!

But your typical person working in a hotel, hospitality ect all need a place to live, They cant all be living in social housing.

brisan

Balluba wrote: »

I have read that Twink is in danger again of losing her house in South Co. Dublin due to losing work because of Covid

Twink has been in danger of losing her house since her husband unzipped his mickey
She should just sell it and move on
Thousands of ordinary Joe soaps have had to do it

Shoden

Billythekid19 wrote: »

But your typical person working in a hotel, hospitality ect all need a place to live, They cant all be living in social housing.

A lot of them rent. Worked in that industry for years myself.

brisan

Shoden wrote: »

To those who were arguing about whether a downward trend was on the way a few pages ago. I spent months thinking that prices were about to drop. Then I had a realisation, those who were employed in sectors that were hit the worst: hospitality, tourism, entertainment etc aren't your typical mortgage candidates, and those in steady jobs had nothing to do but save for months!

We have had this argument over and over again and its been proved to be false
PEOPLE on low wages do affect the housing market ,both the rental sector and the sales market