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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Faugheen

If Trump wins Michigan I will close my account.

Eric Cartman

Faugheen wrote: »

If Trump wins Michigan I will close my account.

I realised I clicked Michigan, not Wisconsin. I'm undecided on Michigan.

Achebe

I see Trump has been hanging out with Colombian fascists.

EkASjL8XkAcImj1?format=jpg&name=small

Eric Cartman

Achebe wrote: »

I see Trump has been hanging out with Colombian fascists.

?? , I wasn't aware Columbia had a fascism issue in these modern times.

steddyeddy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

this is how I think it plays out so far, theres still room for a Biden victory but I've set the swing states I believe trump has (NH,NV,FL,WI) to red.

In fairness Eric at least you put your money where your mouth is.

Eric Cartman

steddyeddy wrote: »

In fairness Eric at least you put your money where your mouth is.

I think it could still go either way but bar something major I'm going to hold that map out as where I think it goes. Im 100% trump is going to take Florida, 90% on Wisconsin, even if Biden wins he'll be doing it without those 2.

Tell me how

At this point, I think there is more chance of Trump dropping out 'citing unfairness, MSM, waffle' etc than there is of him winning.
There is a huge absence of noteworthy advocates speaking for him across the media networks where he is being left to stunts like him calling in to Rush Limbaugh and having a medical on Fox to try to appear competitive. Those that do speak for him are being ridiculed for their unwillingness to disclose when he last tested negative for Covid 19 or for not disclosing who he owes all the money to.
Apparently there are also polls due to be released which are further bad news for him.

If it proceeds like this, will he allow himself to be beaten in a landslide or will he try to slink away and probably leave Pence to face Biden in a virtual walk over? In 2016 he was expected to lose but the fact that he made it to the ballot was a success for someone who had never sought elected office before. It's a very different environment 4 years later.

A bizarre concept maybe but if he wasn't so at risk of prosecution then I think it would be much more likely that something like this could happen. He is notably a cheapskate and pouring money in to a what appears to be a wasted endeavour is not something he is going to do if he can avoid it. Even if it is 'Republican' money rather than his own.
And yet, I am still nervous that were Biden to get sick, things could shift dramatically once again. 2020 has been a hell of a year.

PhiloCypher

Trumps Stratagy is to go full comical Ali and deny the tanks are at gate to prime his base to believe the only way he could have possibly lost was the massive mail in voter fraud Trump insists would happen. He wants his people angry, armed and ready for war as leverage to cut a deal not to be prosecuted.

Overheal

Eric Cartman wrote: »

?? , I wasn't aware Columbia had a fascism issue in these modern times.

I just can’t believe he’s kept that to himself all this time. Would have been great fodder in the debate if it was true

briany

PhiloCypher wrote: »

Trumps Stratagy is to go full comical Ali and deny the tanks are at gate to prime his base to believe the only way he could have possibly lost was the massive mail in voter fraud Trump insists would happen. He wants his people angry, armed and ready for war as leverage to cut a deal not to be prosecuted.

My thoughts as well. Without the Republican establishment around him, and more importantly, without the office of POTUS to hide in, he's vulnerable to prosecution. The possibility of this leaves him with the following options in the event that he cannot hang onto the presidency.

1) Skedaddle out of the USA
2) Make legal cases brought against him too politically volatile. The Republican elites may turn their back on him, but the MAGAs never will. He is their god-emperor and they will kick off when he makes the call to.

drunkmonkey

Didn't realize that Harris said they would leagilise weed, https://nypost.com/2020/10/09/weed-stocks-surge-as-kamala-harris-vows-to-decriminalize-pot-in-debate/

Not sure what effect that could have on voting, definitely gave Trudeau a boost.

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Didn't realize that Harris said they would leagilise weed, https://nypost.com/2020/10/09/weed-stocks-surge-as-kamala-harris-vows-to-decriminalize-pot-in-debate/

Not sure what effect that could have on voting, definitely gave Trudeau a boost.

Decriminalise at a federal level, legalisation would likely be handled by the individual states.

Pa ElGrande

Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3

So no... Donald J. Trump just doesn’t have what it takes to just win on November 3.

Because he’s going to absolutely crush the election that day. A #Trumpslide if you will.

source

https://twitter.com/KMCRadio/status/1314563897563787266

Achebe

Eric Cartman wrote: »

?? , I wasn't aware Columbia had a fascism issue in these modern times.

It's Colombia. There's no such nation as Columbia.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right-wing_paramilitarism_in_Colombia

Far right paramilitaries are very powerful in Colombia.

[Deleted User]

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3

https://twitter.com/KMCRadio/status/1314563897563787266

Propaganda from a right wing publication that clearly is not basing their writings on reality at this stage.

Eric Cartman

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3

https://twitter.com/KMCRadio/status/1314563897563787266

I think he has a shot but not a hope at 331 , even if trump wins I can't see him passing 300. That first column made some points but I think that guy is too optimistic and focusing on picking up new votes without accounting for losing some old ones.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1315410385806200834

drunkmonkey

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1315410385806200834

I'd stick to predicting the weather, your good at it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nF2LWo-nSuM

dwayneshintzy

Pelosi talking about the 25th Amendment is a sign to some Republicans that Democrats are panicking and know they're losing....... so what is Trump asking his AG to indict his opponent less than a month before the election a sign of?

dwayneshintzy

Also, that Kevin McCullough and his supporters are chatting about Trump potentially coming close, or even taking, California.

Absolutely deluded. If Trump gets wthin 25% of Biden in California, I'll be shocked.

ThunbergsAreGo

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1315410385806200834

Those videos are great, the best negative advertising I have seen in a while.

Pa ElGrande

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Also, that Kevin McCullough and his supporters are chatting about Trump potentially coming close, or even taking, California.

Absolutely deluded. If Trump gets wthin 25% of Biden in California, I'll be shocked.

There is frustration that has been building for some time in California, a combination of high taxes and indications of more to come combined with high cost of living, outward migration of those who can (high income earners), crime, the homeless and drug epidemic in particular meth , natural disasters (Depending on where you live in the state you can be subject to fires, mudslides, earthquakes, droughts), not to mention the lockdowns. Rural California tends to vote Republican, they are a minority, while the coast is heavily Democrat, however if the area around the Central valley decides to exercise their frustration with the California government then Trump could come close. Trump is not campaigning in California, on the plus side California has nice weather year round, unless you live in the mountains, then you don't have to spend the Winter shovelling snow like you do in the North-East of the United States.

dwayneshintzy

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

There is frustration that has been building for some time in California, a combination of high taxes and indications of more to come combined with high cost of living, outward migration of those who can (high income earners), crime, the homeless and drug epidemic in particular meth , natural disasters (Depending on where you live in the state you can be subject to fires, mudslides, earthquakes, droughts), not to mention the lockdowns. Rural California tends to vote Republican, they are a minority, while the coast is heavily Democrat, however if the area around the Central valley decides to exercise their frustration with the California government then Trump could come close. Trump is not campaigning in California, on the plus side California has nice weather year round, unless you live in the mountains, then you don't have to spend the Winter shovelling snow like you do in the North-East of the United States.

Trump is not gonna "come close"! As I said, if he was even within 25% it would be surprising. What do you consider "close"?

Pa ElGrande

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Trump is not gonna "come close"! As I said, if he was even within 25% it would be surprising. What do you consider "close"?

He took 31% first time out, 45% is not unreasonable in California. Where I think the votes may be coming from is the self employed and lower-paying jobs that require physical presence on site. Due to the lockdowns the only people who can work from home are upper-class white-collar jobs. Even the people who clean office buildings have lost their jobs. These are the people who lack savings and these lockdowns have put at risk a massive civil uprising that leaked video of Pelosi getting her hair done, indicates there is anger under the surface, otherwise why diss a well-established incumbent like Pelosi.

dwayneshintzy

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

He took 31% first time out, 45% is not unreasonable in California. Where I think the votes may be coming from is the self employed and lower-paying jobs that require physical presence on site. Due to the lockdowns the only people who can work from home are upper-class white-collar jobs. Even the people who clean office buildings have lost their jobs. These are the people who lack savings and these lockdowns have put at risk a massive civil uprising that leaked video of Pelosi getting her hair done, indicates there is anger under the surface, otherwise why diss a well-established incumbent like Pelosi.

The leaked video of Pelosi was a bull**** gotcha moment from Republicans with no real relevance, San Franciscans saw right through it for what it was. If you think people in San Francisco by and large had their views of Pelosi changed by that incident, I'd love to know what you're basing it on. Be interested to hear what you think the general view of Pelosi is in San Francisco full stop, actually.

I know many self-employed contractors in California, and not one of them will be voting for Trump. Those are just anecdotal points, of course. But if you're not gonna base your views on data and polling (since they have Trump much, much worse than 45%), what are you basing it on instead?

Eric Cartman

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Also, that Kevin McCullough and his supporters are chatting about Trump potentially coming close, or even taking, California.

Absolutely deluded. If Trump gets wthin 25% of Biden in California, I'll be shocked.

Absolutely this, that state wont be turning red any time soon

Mehapoy

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

He took 31% first time out, 45% is not unreasonable in California. Where I think the votes may be coming from is the self employed and lower-paying jobs that require physical presence on site. Due to the lockdowns the only people who can work from home are upper-class white-collar jobs. Even the people who clean office buildings have lost their jobs. These are the people who lack savings and these lockdowns have put at risk a massive civil uprising that leaked video of Pelosi getting her hair done, indicates there is anger under the surface, otherwise why diss a well-established incumbent like Pelosi.

How would that translate to increased support for Trump? Surely they are laying the blame on him for bungling the response to covid rather than blaming the state government for imposing a lockdown?

dwayneshintzy

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Absolutely this, that state wont be turning red any time soon

Exactly. If someone wants to argue that Californians SHOULD be angry at Democrats, and that they SHOULD be voting for Trump, that's their prerogative. But to say they feel this is something that's actually happening and will be borne out by results in November is deluded.

Hillary Clinton won a higher percentage of votes in Alabama in 2016 than Trump did in California. Any Democrat claiming that Biden has a chance in Alabama would be (rightly) ridiculed. And Joe Biden isn't nearly as unpopular as Hillary Clinton was.

letowski

Eric Cartman wrote: »

I think it could still go either way but bar something major I'm going to hold that map out as where I think it goes. Im 100% trump is going to take Florida, 90% on Wisconsin, even if Biden wins he'll be doing it without those 2.

Just out of interest Eric, where does your confidence in Wisconsin derive from? I notice you have MI and WI to the right of PA, which would be out of the ordinary.

Pa ElGrande

Enthusiasm gap on the ground between Biden & Trump.

This election is shaping up as Trump vs not-Trump.

Arizona - Biden & Harris state visit

https://twitter.com/GKeile/status/1315375014288465920

Florida. - Trump supporters rally

https://twitter.com/ReyAnthonyFL/status/1314958136474775554

https://twitter.com/MiamiYRs/status/1314990594884866050