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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Comments

gmisk

drunkmonkey wrote: »

If you go back to the posts 4yrs ago over in the investing forum there was a thread about it. It was correct then and it's looking like a repeat.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-correctly-predicted-next-president-biden-donald-trump-election-2020-6-1029351214

That article is from the end of June, a lot has happened since then.
It doesn't present any kind of compelling argument for Trump to win imo.

drunkmonkey

gmisk wrote: »

That article is from the end of June, a lot has happened since then.
It doesn't present any kind of compelling argument for Trump to win imo.

There's loads of articles stretching back years, they all say the same thing the fact it's recent is irrelevant, in case you missed it..

Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has correctly predicted the winner 87% of the time.

"When the S&P 500 has been higher the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost,"

S&P is just about back at an all time high, That's good for Trump judging on the S&P alone...it's gives Biden a 13% chance of winning.

gmisk

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There's loads of articles stretching back years, they all say the same thing the fact it's recent is irrelevant, in case you missed it..

Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has correctly predicted the winner 87% of the time.

"When the S&P 500 has been higher the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost,"

S&P is just about back at an all time high, That's good for Trump judging on the S&P alone...it's gives Biden a 13% chance of winning.

I read the article, no need for the condescending tone.

This isn't a normal election, all the other indicators elsewhere point to Trump losing. Up until maybe 4/5 months ago I thought trump would shade it somehow narrowly, I don't see it not, it is Bidens to lose, Trump has gone off the deep end.

astrofool

drunkmonkey wrote: »

There's loads of articles stretching back years, they all say the same thing the fact it's recent is irrelevant, in case you missed it..

Going back to 1928, the S&P 500 has correctly predicted the winner 87% of the time.

"When the S&P 500 has been higher the 3 months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost,"

S&P is just about back at an all time high, That's good for Trump judging on the S&P alone...it's gives Biden a 13% chance of winning.

That's not how percentages work.

[Deleted User]

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Trump loses an we will never see you post here again, well...not under that account name.

Some idiots you can't get rid of that easily.

[Deleted User]

BloodyBill wrote: »

There's such a divide in America between right and left its like the American Civil war. The problem for the left is that if there ever was a 'hot' civil war they'd get their arses handed to them as the military support Trump because he pumps money into them and hasn't gotten them involved in a silly war.
Looking in at the Irish media..its like a battle between good and evil when to repeat the oft misquoted phrase...'there's good people on both sides'. The lack of a centre right daily newspaper and the dominant left wing bias in Irish journalists and UK ones aswell like 'Sopel' the BBC editor...means there will be a simmering resentment and no debate until its too late here aswell and we ll all be dragged into these culture wars..we ll all have to pick a side..Thats the inevitable outcome .

Yep the likes of the daily mail are definitely lefties.

We're a few arseholes here in Ireland but they are treated with the contempt they deserve apart from a few fellow arseholes and/or mentally unwell.

normakelle

I believe trump will win. Middle america who go to work each day and at the end of the month after paying mortgage, child care, car payments bills etc have little disposable income and haven't insurance got hammered with obamacare. The premiums are huge and co pay for doctor, medicine and hospital. That is if you could find a doctor to take you as very few accepted it. If you didn't sign up you were fined thousands in your taxes,

Another issue is the abortion laws, I have a relative in new york who always voted democrat is voting trump on this issue.

Also the riots in states led governed by democrats haven't helped them.

There are a lot of people who will say they are voting biden but when they get into the ballot box will vote trump. Lots of americans are walking on eggshells afraid to voice their opinions because of reprisals from the radical left.

km991148

normakelle wrote: »

Another issue is the abortion laws, I have a relative in new york who always voted democrat is voting trump on this issue.

Hard to be anti abortion and pro free drugs developed from aborted stem cells..

Wonder how much tax the free abortion drugs will cost..

If the rest of that post is moderately true, it sounds like the fearmongering from Trump campaign is really effective, which is why I wouldn't quite rule him out yet..

osarusan

normakelle wrote: »

Lots of americans are walking on eggshells afraid to voice their opinions because of reprisals from the radical left.

I can understand the idea that people are hesitant to make their support for Trump public in places like California or NYC, but it doesn't really work as an explanation for the polls in some red states.

normakelle

osarusan wrote: »

I can understand the idea that people are hesitant to make their support for Trump public in places like California or NYC, but it doesn't really work as an explanation for the polls in some red states.

Depends who they are polling. There has been a large influx of people from california and new york to states like Texas in recent years. Trump would have been a shoe in before the coronavirus that is the only thing in my opinion that might influence voting but I stand by my opionion that he will win.

People in the ghettos of chicago and such like will vote Trump. Defund the police is laughable. Imagine their lives if Biden gets in. The police need to be retrained but to defund them is insanity.

normakelle

km991148 wrote: »

Hard to be anti abortion and pro free drugs developed from aborted stem cells..

Wonder how much tax the free abortion drugs will cost..

If the rest of that post is moderately true, it sounds like the fearmongering from Trump campaign is really effective, which is why I wouldn't quite rule him out yet..

I don't understand your point. If you are against abortion which is carried out til nearly full term which is what the democrats favour what has this got to do with free drugs.

Tell me how

Last sentence in this is the most telling.

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1315035011503009792

km991148

normakelle wrote: »

I don't understand your point. If you are against abortion which is carried out til nearly full term which is what the democrats favour what has this got to do with free drugs.

Sorry, two separate things. I was replying to someone talking about tax hikes from the dems.

Separately tho, trump is apparently against abortion for any reason, including medical research, but has been pumped full of drugs that were developed from aborted fetus and he wants to give that drug for free to everyone (presumably at a cost to the taxpayer).

It doesn't really matter anyway because Trump doesn't actually believe anything, he will go whatever way the wind blows popular plus he would more than likely renage on the free drugs promise like most other things he has promised.

riddles

cnocbui wrote: »

Do you remember Bill Clinton's presidency? The republicans launched an avalanche of every contrived and underhanded thing they could think of to attack Clinton and remove him from office by hook and by crook. It was absolutely relentless. Trump has had it easy by comparrison. Clinton left the US with the largest budget surpuss the country ever had, then those neocons puppeteering that clown Bush spent every last cent of that surpluss and then some, leaving the US in near economic ruin, which Obama then spent his entire presidency trying to repair, and he managed it to the point Trump was crowing about how great the stock market was doing minutes after he was in office and thumping his chest and bragging about what a great job he had done compared to Obama, when really it was just economic momentum from Obamas good works.

Now another republican president has f*cked it up yet again. It's like a sine wave - Democrat president runs the country in a responsible manner and then a Republican one comes in and eats all the sweets in the jar and smashes the piggy bank to go and hand out alms to some millitay, oil or other old-wealth industry.

How Americans can be so blind to this cycle is beyond my ken.

Total nonsense

km991148

Another 'have a good night pal'

walshtipp

buddabelly wrote: »

The world has woken to the BS being pushed about Covid, Trump is the only one who has broke from the political pack, i pray he wins and gets the states back to normal, if Biden wins the doom and gloom promoters will have the states and the world in lock down for another year.

If you believe the Covid BS, not a single person has died from old age since March.

I think your tin foil hat fell off there.....

85603

buddabelly wrote: »

The world has woken to the BS being pushed about Covid, Trump is the only one who has broke from the political pack, i pray he wins and gets the states back to normal, if Biden wins the doom and gloom promoters will have the states and the world in lock down for another year.

If you believe the Covid BS, not a single person has died from old age since March.

a bunch of scientists say theres a sort of modern plague thing out there knocking off people, and it also hospitalized bojo and the potus.

now, it could be a marxist plot to slowly get us to wear masks, and then hats, and then special boots over a few decdes. as per the historic marxist docterine on masks.

or, maybe its not the plot of a fast and furious film, and there actually is a virus. regardless of princess diana, old people, communists or hillary.

relax carry on

buddabelly wrote: »

The world has woken to the BS being pushed about Covid, Trump is the only one who has broke from the political pack, i pray he wins and gets the states back to normal, if Biden wins the doom and gloom promoters will have the states and the world in lock down for another year.

If you believe the Covid BS, not a single person has died from old age since March.

Jesus. Trump draws absolute fruit bats like flies to sh*the. What is about the mango Mussolini that they find irresistible?

dwayneshintzy

riddles wrote: »

Total nonsense

Which part is nonsense?

Eric Cartman

osarusan wrote: »

I can understand the idea that people are hesitant to make their support for Trump public in places like California or NYC, but it doesn't really work as an explanation for the polls in some red states.

Many people hiding it from their spouse, relatives or children. Anyone high up in a company, especially publicly listed would want to keep quiet. We have an election with only 2 possible choices and supporting trump runs a huge risk of damaging profits , reputations etc.. because the other side cannot accept somebody is different to them. Even on the lower end many unions are anti trump and could see a factory worker thrown to the wolves for voicing support.

Even in Ireland where we have no skin in the game stateside you’d be ostracised for supporting trump.

astrofool

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Many people hiding it from their spouse, relatives or children. Anyone high up in a company, especially publicly listed would want to keep quiet. We have an election with only 2 possible choices and supporting trump runs a huge risk of damaging profits , reputations etc.. because the other side cannot accept somebody is different to them. Even on the lower end many unions are anti trump and could see a factory worker thrown to the wolves for voicing support.

Even in Ireland where we have no skin in the game stateside you’d be ostracised for supporting trump.

Luckily pollsters know this, and adjust accordingly. Trump odds are almost 2-1 at the moment, good way to make money if confident.

[Deleted User]

relax carry on wrote: »

Jesus. Trump draws absolute fruit bats like flies to sh*the. What is about the mango Mussolini that they find irresistible?

He's one of them!

Eric Cartman

astrofool wrote: »

Luckily pollsters know this, and adjust accordingly. Trump odds are almost 2-1 at the moment, good way to make money if confident.

I dont think they do, we’ll wait and see but i think trump support is very hard to correctly predict.

dark crystal

https://twitter.com/AmandiOnAir/status/1315121789580849153

Rockbeast2

dark crystal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/AmandiOnAir/status/1315121789580849153

I believe him. Not.

This is the kind of karma farming nonsense that will actually cost Biden the election.

I swear, sometimes I think the Dems are trying to lose this election. Biden needs potential voters to be motivated. This does not help.

Igotadose

Rockbeast2 wrote: »

I believe him. Not.

This is the kind of karma farming nonsense that will actually cost Biden the election.

I swear, sometimes I think the Dems are trying to lose this election. Biden needs potential voters to be motivated. This does not help.

So, how would you fill out this map of the US Electoral voting on CNN? Feel free to post your proposed distribution and how you chose the 'swing' states

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

Igotadose

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Many people hiding it from their spouse, relatives or children. Anyone high up in a company, especially publicly listed would want to keep quiet. We have an election with only 2 possible choices and supporting trump runs a huge risk of damaging profits , reputations etc.. because the other side cannot accept somebody is different to them. Even on the lower end many unions are anti trump and could see a factory worker thrown to the wolves for voicing support.

Even in Ireland where we have no skin in the game stateside you’d be ostracised for supporting trump.

So, feel free to fill out this electoral college map and post your results to this list. Add in how you chose which way the swing states would go.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

Danzy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Meanwhile Wall Street are backing Biden.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/09/investing/bank-earnings-preview/index.html

It was always a given that Wall St. Would back Biden.

Even by the standards of American politics he is their man to an exceptional degree.

Eric Cartman

Igotadose wrote: »

So, feel free to fill out this electoral college map and post your results to this list. Add in how you chose which way the swing states would go.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/electoral-college-interactive-maps

this is how I think it plays out so far, theres still room for a Biden victory but I've set the swing states I believe trump has (NH,NV,FL,WI) to red.

MeMen2_MoRi_

Danzy wrote: »

It was always a given that Wall St. Would back Biden.

Even by the standards of American politics he is their man to an exceptional degree.

Yet the biggest trumpet Donnie plays is look at the stock market to prove how good he is doing...

The strange gets stranger.