PropQueries wrote: » Not at all. They know what's happening in their respective sectors. They just don't join up the dots. For example, there was lots of talk last year about groundwork construction jobs drying up. Once those jobs dry up, that translates eventually into plastering jobs etc. drying up 12 months later and so on. That's where the 'experts' and 'professional' come in later to tell us what's happening or to be more precise what has already happened.
awec wrote: » There was? Can you post your source?
awec wrote: » Microsoft were mentioned yesterday, I am pretty sure Microsoft own their main building in Dublin as they only built it a few years ago. Google, another company who announced some WFH, own at least some of their buildings too. Indeed.com, the other one you were very quick to point out last week, are leased up to 2030.
awec wrote: » Why do you always take any news and try and twist it into the most negative outlook possible? Genuinely it is bizarre reading your posts at times.
Hubertj wrote: » I expect a number of large enterprises will maintain their existing offices once the lease comes for renewal. Very good opportunity to negotiate reduced rates. I mentioned the other week about mark Zuckerberg going on about allowing everyone wfh forever. Then this happens... https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/nyregion/facebook-nyc-office-farley-building.amp.html%3f0p19G=0232 No doubt at a nice discount after all the wfh talk.
PropQueries wrote: » As I said "talk" of construction groundwork jobs drying up last year, so obviously no link. After your request to back up such 'talk' with a 'link', I then posted an article from November 2019 stating that construction jobs were indeed beginning to dry up later in 2019. Maybe there's no link between the two.
awec wrote: » You said "was lots of talk last year about groundwork construction jobs drying up", and then post a link to an article that outlines how while residential construction is still growing, the rate of growth has slowed. For one thing, the article doesn't mention groundworks, nor does it make any inference that work is drying up. I guess I'm still unsure where your assertion comes from.
awec wrote: » Why do you always take any news and try and twist it into the most negative outlook possible? Genuinely it is bizarre reading your posts at times. I doubt you are surprised that a few companies have announced some WFH policies, but I guess feigning surprise makes it seem all the more dramatic. All your posts are missing is the "you won't believe what I just read" / "here's the stuff the media don't want you to see" and we have full blown hyperbole that wouldn't look out of place in the conspiracy theories forum. What makes you think that the partial WFH is temporary? What makes you the impression that they're just biding time before giving up offices entirely? Has there been any indication of this anywhere, from anyone? Can you post your sources? This talk of "probably honouring leases", can you post anything where companies indicate they will be breaking their leases? Microsoft were mentioned yesterday, I am pretty sure Microsoft own their main building in Dublin as they only built it a few years ago. Google, another company who announced some WFH, own at least some of their buildings too. Indeed.com, the other one you were very quick to point out last week, are leased up to 2030. Given your apparent surprise at the pace at which this is all happening, have we seen any instances of companies with a significant office presence shutting up their offices and moving to WFH entirely? While it is admiral of you to continue to link dump in case any of us miss the news, particularly the stuff that's relevant, it would be great, IMO, if you could do it in a way that doesn't involve subtly insinuating that these are steps toward the sky falling in, without anything whatsoever to back it up. It gets tiresome trying to separate the fact from fiction.
PropQueries wrote: » A bit of reeling in the years type news from November 2019: 'Construction work hits six-year low' Link to Irish Examiner article here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/arid-30962988.html
PropQueries wrote: » I'm actually quite surprised how fast this WFH has taken off. The multinationals seem to be making and implementing their decisions very quickly. I wonder how long the 50% home/50% in office will last? Is it a stepping stone to 100% WFH for many employees until their office leases expire. They're reputable companies and many will probably honour their leases until the next lease break. A good analysis would be a study of when the majority of these lease break clauses come into effect. It's the office tenants decisions at that time that will show where the WFH phenomenon is really heading. Edit: Just to add. How do pension funds and other large investors now value any potential investments in commercial real estate or build to rent apartment schemes? It's kind of similar to what happened in the United States last time. Wasn't that down to investors not being able to value the underlying assets that most of the loans were secured on? Will they all just stop investing until there's more clarity?
schmittel wrote: » I would have thought Dun Laoighaire already was in massive demand. And I'd probably say the same for Bray/North Wicklow. In a nutshell I think there will be a shunt of demand further out. A number who in 2019 were looking to buy in suburbs inside M50 will start looking further out eg Bray/North Wicklow, a number who were looking in Bray/North Wicklow will start looking further south eg Wicklow town etc etc. And top of that you will have a number who can scatter back to whatever town they came from to be closer family etc. This will have a fairly significant impact across the entire market. But I actually think the opposite of you in that it is the areas like Ranelagh/Rathmines/Portobello/Ballsbridge/Sandycove/Monsktown/Dalkey that will hold up best. These places have always been in big demand because they are are the nicest parts of Dublin - some of them a big attraction is you can walk into town, others its the sea views and the elegant houses. They are leafy and established. It's the areas like Goatstown that I think will suffer. The main demand for these place is driven by the fact it is close to Dublin. There are not a lot of other redeeming features for a lot of these areas.
awec wrote: » This is obviously complete and utter rubbish, if anyone knew what was going to happen nobody would ever get caught out.
PropQueries wrote: » You're right on the small talk. I would take that very seriously as that's where you begin to see the problems start. People on the street almost always know what's about to happen long before most of the experts and commentators.
PropQueries wrote: » That would be a very interesting outcome if it did happen. So, basically, in addition to hollowing out their tax base, we would also be hollowing out the future productive capacity of their economies. Stranger things have happened.
Timing belt wrote: » Where I have seen wfh implemented in the past the model has always been to wfh for 1 or 2 days a week. The decision on how many days a week is influenced by the ability to exit a floor or building. E.g 2 days a week is a saving of 20% floor space and all associated costs. If 25% frees up a floor they have squeezed the extra 5% into existing buildings with people sat on top of each other. Dispute the policy senior managers are expected to be in the office so don’t choose to wfh. If the same model is applied then you are look at a 20% drop in office property values and probably 5-10% drop in demand for rental residential property as half the people don’t want to move as kids in school, partners job etc. The other thing to bear in mind is that banks will take into account cost of commuting in calculating mortgages etc and it will be at a higher value than existing petrol/diesel prices. The last thing to say is that the oecd tax reforms do have the potential to create jobs in Ireland as a lot of the reform is based on where decision making is undertaken as opposed to where HQ is located. And you could see companies move some of that Work to Ireland to still benefit from our tax but to that you need office space and accommodation for workers
PropQueries wrote: » That's true. Many commentators are talking about when we will be getting back to pre-covid economic activity and growth levels. They appear to forgetting about all the potential problems that were there pre-covid i.e. the OECD tax reforms, CCCTB, pension timebomb and our already excessive pre-covid debt levels. On valuing commercial real estate and build-to-rent apartment schemes. You seem to be a bit clued in on the current environment. Any insight into how they are currently valuing them or planning to value them post-covid?
Timing belt wrote: » The tax I would be worried about is a EU wide tax as European countries will be pushing for a EU wide corporation tax to pay for the pandemic. If that happens it will kill the irish economy and property market
PropQueries wrote: » You're right on the small talk. I would take that very seriously as that's where you begin to see the problems start. People on the street almost always know what's about to happen long before most of the experts and commentators. There was an interesting opinion piece in the FT back in May in relation to the UK titled: 'Tax: how we will pay for the pandemic measures'. The main points that look like serious contenders for Ireland IMO were: "Pensions Even before the pandemic, pensions tax relief for higher earners was under threat. It cost £38bn in 2018-19 making it the most expensive tax break, according to the National Audit Office (NAO).Inheritance tax Inheritance tax is has been identified as ripe for reform by various bodies including the Office of Tax Simplification, giving the chancellor plenty of scope to make changes.Property taxes After pensions tax relief, the Exchequer’s second most costly giveaway is Private Residence Relief which exempts people from paying tax on gains when they sell their main home. The NAO found the relief was worth £26.7bn in 2018-19 — but changing such a longstanding feature of the UK tax system would be hugely controversial.Could a ‘wealth tax’ become reality? Introducing a new wealth tax, either as a one-off or an ongoing levy on people’s assets, is another option the chancellor may consider, despite it being a policy the Conservatives have traditionally rejected." Link to Financial Times article here: https://www.ft.com/content/7a01b73b-d1ec-4b6e-a7b1-2d1a0060de91 This is why I've being getting a lot more concerned and interested in this whole housing issue over the past six months. It's definitely me they're coming after. There's nobody else left.
Idbatterim wrote: » A fifty percebt marginal rate of tax. Virtually no lpt or motor tax, no water charges. An obscene welfare state, free luxury housing for many. E350 week pup even if you were on 35 week before that... brought to you by the economic experts pf ffg. Defend that... oh but sf, sf might turn out to be a joke. But ffg are proven jokes
HotDudeLife wrote: » Someone will have to pay and i'll have what SF are smoking, absolute pie in the sky stuff from them, truly delusional and won't stop until Ireland is a communist wasteland, anyway, i digress. It will be interesting to see if the property market follows the same trajectory as the property crash in 2008/09 relating to the bank bailouts, it took 2-3 years for the market to bottom out and if i was a gambling man i would predict the same this time around, we will see the beginning of this in early 2021 as more individuals are impacted by this recession and banks start tightening or becoming more selective in their lending add to this the eventual withdrawl of government covid support and it will all snowball into a large downturn possibly bottoming out in 2023 sometime. Everywhere i go and talk to individuals (bar those in my industry and big tech/medical), it is utterly dire straits out there, small talk is akin to that of which occurred in 2008. All to well this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, give it time, this will be a bumpy ride.
PropQueries wrote: » Interesting article in the Irish Independent today: 'Budget deficits mean the cost of Covid will match bank bailouts'. "The final bill to the Irish Exchequer from the Covid crisis is set to exceed the €42bn cost of bailing out the banks a decade ago... Unlike the bank crisis that spawned years of austerity, there is also no sign the Covid crisis will force hard economic decisions on Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath." Let's put this in perspective. This additional borrowings of €42,000,000,000 would build 168,000 social houses at an average cost of €250,000 each. There were less than 30,000 households throughout Co. Dublin on the housing waiting list, the vast majority renting from private landlords. Is this the magic money tree many complain about when analysing SF budget proposals? I'm not an avid SF supporter, but do many people in this country truly believe this level of borrowing isn't come to come back and bite us very hard and very soon even if interest rates are and remain at 0% indefinitely? Income taxes/PRSI are probably as high as they can ever go. So, what/who is left to tax? Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/budget-deficits-mean-the-cost-of-covid-will-match-bank-bailouts-39607365.html
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