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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Comments

Kermit.de.frog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The polls are indicating a landslide is v possible, but "people on the left", and lots of other people, got burned when they underestimated Trumps chances last time and are very cagey about saying out loud what the polls are saying.

It's over. Biden is closing in on an unheard of 20 point lead over a sitting president. Unrecoverable. Millions are already casting their vote.

North Carolina, Texas and Arizona are in play.

It's over.

[Deleted User]

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The polls are indicating a landslide is v possible, but "people on the left", and lots of other people, got burned when they underestimated Trumps chances last time and are very cagey about saying out loud what the polls are saying.

One thing I found interesting is that the 538 asked people how excited they were and the general response was around 40% for both Trump and Biden voters. Biden has high 80s for intending to vote. Trump is low 80s. Think that works out for more favourable for Biden.

Timberrrrrrrr

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's over. Biden is closing in on an unheard of 20 point lead over a sitting president. Unrecoverable. Millions are already casting their vote.

North Carolina, Texas and Arizona are in play.

It's over.

The worrying part of this is that Trump knows it, How vindictive is he and how badly will he burn the US to leave a mess for Biden.

Zubeneschamali

Many people are saying :pac: that Trump nixing any Covid money and going all in for the SC nominee is a sign that he has given up trying to win the actual election with the votes and the counting.

Some suggest that he still plans to hold on to power by overturning the election, but the SC won't do that, why should they - once appointed, they don't need him, and they don't need to overturn the Constitution for him.

Igotadose

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's over. Biden is closing in on an unheard of 20 point lead over a sitting president. Unrecoverable. Millions are already casting their vote.

North Carolina, Texas and Arizona are in play.

It's over.

North Carolina, somehow, would be the most delicious of those. Arizona and Texas have always swayed. NC is as old south as it gets. Imagine the Senate races in 2022. 20 GOP + 2 depending on specials elections (likely 1 GOP, 1 Democratic). So, 21 GOp vs. I think 13 Democratic. Good stuff, seeing the backs of the Richard Burrs and Chuck Grassleys would be nice. Grassley might not run anyway, he's pretty old.

Edit: Burr is retiring. So is Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania.

humberklog

Hillary was on James Corden's show during the week. 2 good reasons to switch over but I did want to hear how she thought this election was going to unfold.
Twice she put forward that the reason Biden' would win was because he was going to get votes from people who were going to vote against Trump. That struck me as fairly shaky grounds for confidence in their candidate.
Firstly it is saying that your candidate hasn't wooed the floating voter.
Secondly- I think (just my thinking, not scientific) that a person polled whose thinking is "I'm voting to get someone out" rather than "I'm voting to get someone in" is a flakey voter that I wouldn't rely on to actually vote on the day and if I was a pollster I'd put an * beside that person's name.

I thought it odd that such a die hard Dem in the final few weeks of an election run-in on a "soft" late night entertainment show didn't exactly exude confidence in her own candidate.

Trump may well be down in the polls but he's not relying on an "anyone but Biden" vote.

sydthebeat

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

The worrying part of this is that Trump knows it, How vindictive is he and how badly will he burn the US to leave a mess for Biden.

we already know how vindictive he will be... hes said it... hes going to withhold stimulus payments to US households

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/trump-killed-covid-relief-the-decision-will-inflict-financial-hardship-on-millions/

sydthebeat

humberklog wrote: »

Hillary was on James Corden's show during the week. 2 good reasons to switch over but I did want to hear how she thought this election was going to unfold.
Twice she put forward that the reason Biden' would win was because he was going to get votes from people who were going to vote against Trump. .

this election is 100% a referendum on trump.

last time he had the novelty factor and people didnt know what he was going to be like... well this time they definitely do.

He hasnt 'drained the swamp' ........ he has turned it into an ocean and build a host of Trump towers on its shore.

you either support him or you do not.
so people will either vote for him, or against him.

humberklog

sydthebeat wrote: »

you either support him or you do not.
so people will either vote for him, or against him.

Or not vote at all.

[Deleted User]

humberklog wrote: »

Or not vote at all.

True but there's already large amounts of votes being cast and we haven't hit election day.

SixtaWalthers

I am not his supporter but it seems like Trump would win because his opponent is not playing to get an edge. Secondly, Trump's moves are very smart.

Zubeneschamali

humberklog wrote: »

Trump may well be down in the polls but he's not relying on an "anyone but Biden" vote.

Biden isn't relying on an anyone but Trump vote. In yesterday's speech at Gettysburg, he didn't even mention Trump's name.

But I can see why Hillary is for anyone but Trump, it must be galling to be 2016's Cassandra.

cantwbr1

SixtaWalthers wrote: »

I am not his supporter but it seems like Trump would win because his opponent is not playing to get an edge. Secondly, Trump's moves are very smart.

What moves?

greenfield21

sydthebeat wrote: »

we already know how vindictive he will be... hes said it... hes going to withhold stimulus payments to US households

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2020/10/trump-killed-covid-relief-the-decision-will-inflict-financial-hardship-on-millions/

On his Twitter though he's lobbying for $1200 stimulus checks, ppp for small business and payroll support for airline employees. He's just dumped the add-ons. I'm sure will here more about it today.

ELM327

Updating as we are less than a month away now and I still think Trump will win.
He doesnt have to lead the polls or the majority vote (these are irrelevant due to EC), he just has to get the votes out where they matter.

There cant be many people who voted trump last time that would consider floating to biden. So the only way Biden will win is if people who didnt vote last time, come out this time and vote blue.

Does biden energize people to vote? I dont think so. Hence why I'm confident of a Trump victory.

Inquitus

ELM327 wrote: »

Updating as we are less than a month away now and I still think Trump will win.
He doesnt have to lead the polls or the majority vote (these are irrelevant due to EC), he just has to get the votes out where they matter.

There cant be many people who voted trump last time that would consider floating to biden. So the only way Biden will win is if people who didnt vote last time, come out this time and vote blue.

Does biden energize people to vote? I dont think so. Hence why I'm confident of a Trump victory.

Biden is ahead in most swing states, it looks like Nevada and Texas are in play, Trump's hospitalisation has hit his numbers, lots of votes already cast, 3 weeks for Trump to change the trajectory of the election. Hard to see how Biden doesn't win, he is in a much better position than Hillary was at this time, and she only lost by a literal handful of votes in 3 key states.

hirondelle

ELM327 wrote: »

Updating as we are less than a month away now and I still think Trump will win.
He doesnt have to lead the polls or the majority vote (these are irrelevant due to EC), he just has to get the votes out where they matter.

There cant be many people who voted trump last time that would consider floating to biden. So the only way Biden will win is if people who didnt vote last time, come out this time and vote blue.

Does biden energize people to vote? I dont think so. Hence why I'm confident of a Trump victory.

Do the events over the last week, on balance, make you more or less confident?

[Deleted User]

ELM327 wrote: »

Updating as we are less than a month away now and I still think Trump will win.
He doesnt have to lead the polls or the majority vote (these are irrelevant due to EC), he just has to get the votes out where they matter.

There cant be many people who voted trump last time that would consider floating to biden. So the only way Biden will win is if people who didnt vote last time, come out this time and vote blue.

Does biden energize people to vote? I dont think so. Hence why I'm confident of a Trump victory.

He's not winning in electoral colleges in polling though. And already large numbers are going out to vote. Large numbers works against GOP.

ELM327

Inquitus wrote: »

Biden is ahead in most swing states, it looks like Nevada and Texas are in play, Trump's hospitalisation has hit his numbers, lots of votes already cast, 3 weeks for Trump to change the trajectory of the election. Hard to see how Biden doesn't win, he is in a much better position than Hillary was at this time, and she only lost by a literal handful of votes in 3 key states.

Polls are irrelevant. The only "poll" that matter takes place on November 3rd

hirondelle wrote: »

Do the events over the last week, on balance, make you more or less confident?

Getting Covid? I think it will energise his base but not do anything else. So perhaps less confident slightly.

Deleted User wrote: »

He's not leaving in electoral colleges in polling though. And already large numbers are going out to vote. Large numbers works against GOP.

Electoral college polling is irrelevant, and those numbers wont be counted till november 3rd
You are correct on the large numbers.

[Deleted User]

ELM327 wrote: »

Updating as we are less than a month away now and I still think Trump will win.
He doesnt have to lead the polls or the majority vote (these are irrelevant due to EC), he just has to get the votes out where they matter.

There cant be many people who voted trump last time that would consider floating to biden. So the only way Biden will win is if people who didnt vote last time, come out this time and vote blue.

Does biden energize people to vote? I dont think so. Hence why I'm confident of a Trump victory.

There'll be plenty in the Rust Belt. They voted Trump in the hope that he'd fulfill his promise of bringing their jobs back. He hasn't even bothered to try. Huge block of voters there alone.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

There'll be plenty in the Rust Belt. They voted Trump in the hope that he'd fulfill his promise of bringing their jobs back. He hasn't even bothered to try. Huge block of voters there alone.

Trump created 6.6 million jobs in the time of his administration, pre covid.

Igotadose

ELM327 wrote: »

Trump created 6.6 million jobs in the time of his administration, pre covid.

The past is history.

Worst unemployment levels now since the Great Depression. In less than a year. Amazing.

Think of what sending 5 masks to every household might've accomplished (one of the proposals Kushner's crack team of juvies shot down)

silverharp

I think the polls will be wrong for 2 reasons assuming they arent rigged in the first place, a certain amount of Trump voters arent telling pollsters the truth because they dont trust the pollsters with their private information, secondly voters maybe sending a signal to Trump, maybe p1ssed of with his messaging but will still vote Trump on the day

hirondelle

ELM327 wrote: »

Polls are irrelevant. The only "poll" that matter takes place on November 3rd

Getting Covid? I think it will energise his base but not do anything else. So perhaps less confident slightly.

Electoral college polling is irrelevant, and those numbers wont be counted till november 3rd
You are correct on the large numbers.

But he didn't just "get" Covid as you know- he turned it into a propaganda video whilst increasing the risk of it's transmission to the very people who are there to take care of him. He politicised it (again) and then downplayed it's seriousness. I think a lot of Americans won't have been impressed with the entire tone deaf performance. The failure to acknowledge that he obviously was having lung and/or breathing issues suggests concealment instead of recovery. He probably will fully recover but it is another example of where he lies directly to the people and it really doesn't matter to him how big the lies get.

[Deleted User]

ELM327 wrote: »

Trump created 6.6 million jobs in the time of his administration, pre covid.

Junk statistic.

"6.6 million is the bigliest number..tremendous..highest number known to mathematics."

Trump has the lowest cumulative percentage increase in job creation of any of the last seven presidents.

Igotadose

silverharp wrote: »

I think the polls will be wrong for 2 reasons assuming they arent rigged in the first place, a certain amount of Trump voters arent telling pollsters the truth because they dont trust the pollsters with their private information, secondly voters maybe sending a signal to Trump, maybe p1ssed of with his messaging but will still vote Trump on the day

Seriously, how wrong? Wrong enough to put Trump over the top. How much wrong?

Because Biden's in record polling territory now.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

Junk statistic.

"6.6 million is the bigliest number..tremendous..highest number known to mathematics."

Trump has the lowest cumulative percentage increase in job creation of any of the last seven presidents.

Other than Obama's second term (which included the recovery from the 09-10 recession), no other administration has added the same % of jobs as Trump.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jobs_created_during_U.S._presidential_terms

SixtaWalthers

cantwbr1 wrote: »

What moves?

He didn't say a single word against white superimasy because he thinks he shouldn't angry his voters from this group. There are also many questions on his Covid positive test and how he is responding it.

mcmoustache

silverharp wrote: »

I think the polls will be wrong for 2 reasons assuming they arent rigged in the first place, a certain amount of Trump voters arent telling pollsters the truth because they dont trust the pollsters with their private information, secondly voters maybe sending a signal to Trump, maybe p1ssed of with his messaging but will still vote Trump on the day

If that were true now, I don't see how it wouldn't also be true in 2016. It wasn't true in 2016.

mcmoustache

SixtaWalthers wrote: »

He didn't say a single word against white superimasy because he thinks he shouldn't angry his voters from this group. There are also many questions on his Covid positive test and how he is responding it.

Those moves aren't smart though. I'm assuming here that "smart" means something that would increase his support. He's doing things, sure, but doing things that make more people vote for him is another matter entirely.