Timing belt wrote: » What makes you think that credit will dry up anytime soon? Yes the banks have more Non performing loans and which will eat into capital reserves but there is no sign of any credit crunch coming (at least in residential property CRE may be different). In the short term all it will mean is mortgage rates will increase due to additional RWA’s
schmittel wrote: » I thought some of the amateur economists might appreciate a different viewpoint of the dynamics at work in the market:Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity
Hubertj wrote: » Article speaks a lot of sense even if tinged with bitter socialism. I was disappointed when I read the author was an advisor to Jeremy Corbyn. That worked out well. Must be very embarrassing to be associated with that era of Labour Party politics. As much to blame for Brexit as the rest of them.
Bits_n_Bobs wrote: » The argument that land is finite and inelastic is a bit bogus. Plenty of additional residential zoned land can be created within Dublin at the stroke of our planners pens. Otherwise interesting read.
Buy land, they aren’t making anymore of it. – Mark Twain
Tea drinker wrote: » There's more spaces needed in Dublin not less - in most cases. The few open space amenities there are can become swamped as soon as there's a bit of sunshine. And besides that people need quality parks nearby (no driving or cycling required) they and their kids can avail of. Driving in Dublin is going to become increasingly difficult so best to have space nearby.
virginmediapls wrote: » I check this thread every few months. Always the same. People with vested interest in property prices staying high saying "oooh the supply is too low, prices going up!". People with vested interest in prices dropping saying "oooh the economy is fecked, arse will fall out of it any day now!".
virginmediapls wrote: » oooh the economy is fecked, arse will fall out of it any day now!".
neutral guy wrote: » The problem is that bankers says that too,..Same as members of government and parlament of Ireland,.
Timing belt wrote: » Where have bankers, government said that arse is going to fall out of the property market as I have not seen that in any media reports.
neutral guy wrote: » One of thousandhttps://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/property-price-drop-of-up-to-12-this-year-a-reasonable-assumption-mcdonagh-1.4269922?mode=amp
Timing belt wrote: » A drop of 5-12% is not the arse falling out of the market. Plus that was in June and there have been no signs of such a drop yet virginmediapls was correct in his statement.... Lol
flexcon wrote: » Think I am being suckered into buying a new build in Cork. Saved a good amount from the lockdown. First time buyer, combined income 100K mortgage 280K on a 365K house. The past few weeks have been stressful wondering to wait and save more, or just take the 30K goverment incentive before end of the year. Mortgage advisors are meh. Maybe I am just asking too much or asking for the magic answer. This thread has helped me awake at night to some extent!
Mic 1972 wrote: » that article if from June, it's now October and prices are still high
theballz wrote: » Prices in Dublin will always be high, however, I have noticed a slight downturn in prices over the last month or so.
The_Conductor wrote: » What I've noticed- is nice 2-3 bed dwellings, are being marked down, and many of them are withdrawing from the market altogether. The latest that I was personally looking at is a really nice 2 bed in Lucan that I was looking at for a retired couple Link here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-village-weir-lucan-dublin/4448151 Nice well maintained private development on Main Street Lucan Under floor heating and A/C Architecturally recovered oakbrick floor Recently renovated to an exceptionally high standard New kitchen, 2 new bathrooms, new carpentry throughout Private garden at rear south and west facing with decking and a garden shed 2 parking spaces (unassigned) 80% of units in development are owner occupied Asking was 275k If spectacular units like that- are being withdrawn- I'd have to question what on earth is happening.........
PropQueries wrote: » Wouldn't many potential buyers (excl. investors) need to be employed either by the state or a multinational to receive mortgage approval at the moment. As both these groups are already relatively well paid, they would most likely already own or be renting a proper apartment or house in Dublin.
PropQueries wrote: » If they buy, that just frees up their old apartment or house to the market for either rent or sale so the demand from these groups should have a relatively minor impact on the demand/supply dynamics for housing in Dublin.
PropQueries wrote: » In relation to sellers withdrawing properties from the market, maybe many sellers are waiting to see what incentives will be provided to home buyers in the budget.
PropQueries wrote: » If the expected budget incentives don't materialise in the way many sellers hope, there may be a significant increase in properties re-entering the market in the next few months. If the incentives aren't provided this year, there is little hope of better incentives in future years due to budget constraints.
PropQueries wrote: » Wouldn't many potential buyers (excl. investors) need to be employed either by the state or a multinational to receive mortgage approval at the moment. As both these groups are already relatively well paid, they would most likely already own or be renting a proper apartment or house in Dublin. If they buy, that just frees up their old apartment or house to the market for either rent or sale so the demand from these groups should have a relatively minor impact on the demand/supply dynamics for housing in Dublin. In relation to sellers withdrawing properties from the market, maybe many sellers are waiting to see what incentives will be provided to home buyers in the budget. If the expected budget incentives don't materialise in the way many sellers hope, there may be a significant increase in properties re-entering the market in the next few months. If the incentives aren't provided this year, there is little hope of better incentives in future years due to budget constraints.
The_Conductor wrote: » And many potential buyers- haven't bought (for various reasons) and aren't constrained by mortgages. The unit in particular that I was looking at- is for an Irish couple who have worked abroad for over 20 years, and want to retire in the Lucan area to be close to their grandchildren. They are not constrained by a mortgage. Similarly the seller- is an OAP who wants to move down the country to live with her daughter. If a situation like that with a vested buyer and seller- can't be made work- what can be? So what if it frees up a rental unit? In the aforementioned case it wouldn't have done- however, that is a specific case. There is no suggestion of incentives to anyone to help them buy second-hand properties. All incentives thus far- have been to the new sector- and the soundbites from the Green Party have suggested that any incentives to the housing sector- other than new properties- will only be to upgrade and improve BER ratings- they will not be to support prices. I've not seen any sellers express any opinion (at all) regarding incentives for the secondhand sector. What have you heard? The suggestion is the HTB scheme will have to unwind- probably in October 2021- as EU Commission budget rules look set to be reintroduced. Ironically- it looks like Ireland is going to be in the group of fiscally prudent countries- and is regularly listed alongside the Northern group, whether this accolade continues to apply- will be telling. I don't 'get' how/why people expect additional supports in the budget- we have borrowed, and will be constrained in our future borrowing capacity- and we have an unemployment rate of circa 15% - and will have to support those people (and hopefully assist them to achieve gainful employment as quickly as possible). We have competing priorities which are higher up the pecking order- than giving wedges of cash to prospective buyers- and if they genuinely expect this largess to continue- they're in for a rude awakening.
TheSheriff wrote: » Have to hand it to you PropQueries, you are able to turn and twist any post here to suit the concept that any minute now the housing market will collapse. There have been absolutely zero reports of any budget incentives except HTB, nobody is waiting on these in the budget..... Edit; conductor did this much more thoroughly above....
beauf wrote: » The thread and indeed this forum used to be more balanced. At this point if you want a reasoned discussion or debate you'd be better on another forum site. Since Covid and lockdown this thread and indeed most of the general threads in accommodation and property are overrun with mostly one sided dogma about the sky falling in. It's been going to hapen any day now for 6 months. Not that the sky won't fall in, eventually it will, markets being cyclical etc. At this point it's broken these threads.
Smouse156 wrote: » There is no way HTB will be withdrawn! That’s essentially handing 80+ seats to Sinn Fein in the next election. It will be the very last thing to go when they look for cuts
