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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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MacronvFrugals

Dan O Brien comparing our best medical people to the bankers who caused the 2008 crash.

A celebrity economist without the wit and likeability McWilliams has.

Assetbacked

His observation is pointed, NPHET do come across as a bunch of pigs at the trough but FF and FG are the ones responsible for the economic devastation which has been directly caused by their actions. They need a plan to avoid the paper recession manifesting in the breakdown of society as the electorate won't accept that they were just following NPHET in a few years at the next election.

Sesame

The UK introduced a 0% stamp duty in July for properties up to half a million
Is there any talk of something similar here?
Might be a good way to get things moving.
In Cork anyway, there seems to be no new properties lately.

OwlsZat

Sesame wrote: »

The UK introduced a 0% stamp duty in July for properties up to half a million
Is there any talk of something similar here?
Might be a good way to get things moving.
In Cork anyway, there seems to be no new properties lately.

Reduce property prices without giving more money away?

TheSheriff

Sesame wrote: »

The UK introduced a 0% stamp duty in July for properties up to half a million
Is there any talk of something similar here?
Might be a good way to get things moving.
In Cork anyway, there seems to be no new properties lately.

Can't see it happening here to be honest, also, this will effectively just function to likely increase house prices further. Which we don't need.

The less government interference in the market the better.

Bass Reeves

Sesame wrote: »

The UK introduced a 0% stamp duty in July for properties up to half a million
Is there any talk of something similar here?
Might be a good way to get things moving.
In Cork anyway, there seems to be no new properties lately.

Stamp duty is s much bigger factor in the UK. In Ireland it's 1% up to a million. In the UK it was zero up to 125k, 125-250 was 2% 250k-900k it was 5%.

A 500k house was 5k in Ireland in the UK it's 15k. In the UK you were worse off if you spend more than 250k ,(about 275k euro) on a house compare to Ireland

Assetbacked

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2020/quarterly-bulletin---q4-2020.pdf

The Central Bank's Q4 bulletin on the state of the economy. I'm not going to go into any of the economic data, just going to highlight two pieces of data on housing (which probably don't come as a surprise);

Construction sector activity is expected to decline by approximately 30
per cent in 2020. The sector bounced back well from the closures in April
and May, with most sites re-opening in mid-June. Indications are that the
sector is running at approximately 85 per cent capacity. However, the
latest construction PMI reported that the recovery faltered somewhat in
August, with the overall index falling from 53.2 (expansion) in July to 44
(contraction) in August. All three housing, commercial and civil engineering
sectors recorded a contraction in activity in the month of August.

House completions are expected to decline to approximately 17,500
units in 2020, down from 21,000 units in 2019. More recent data indicate
that housing commencements and registrations have held up better than
expected during Q2 2020, with over 3,000 new housing units commenced,
although considerable uncertainty around demand, prices and financing
remains. Current expectations are for approximately 22,000 and 27,400
units in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

[Deleted User]

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2020/quarterly-bulletin---q4-2020.pdf

The Central Bank's Q4 bulletin on the state of the economy. I'm not going to go into any of the economic data, just going to highlight two pieces of data on housing (which probably don't come as a surprise);

"......... although considerable uncertainty around demand,"

that would come as a surprise to many in here surely?

OwlsZat

Didn't see this mentioned.

https://passivehouseplus.ie/news/projects/dun-laoghaire-passive-house-scheme-will-be-one-of-world-s-largest

Looks a great project. Hopefully, we will see many more similar developments.

Hubertj

OwlsZat wrote: »

Didn't see this mentioned.

https://passivehouseplus.ie/news/projects/dun-laoghaire-passive-house-scheme-will-be-one-of-world-s-largest

Looks a great project. Hopefully, we will see many more similar developments.

i read about he project a while back but not the plans for passive housing etc. Very good project, espeically on such a large scale. These are the types of projects the government needs to deliver - actual developments and not just talk about headline numbers of X thousand per year.

Assetbacked

Any word on the Glass Bottle site? Last update I can find was the Colony Capital consortium being accepted as the preferred bidder for the site, but that seems to be back in June/July. Obviously with Colony Capital's woes in the US which seem to be spilling into Ireland, I wonder whether the closing is delayed.

Augeo wrote: »

"......... although considerable uncertainty around demand,"

that would come as a surprise to many in here surely?

It shouldn't come as a surprise is what I meant to say! The significant drop in transactions the past few months is correlated with a view that demand is lower but it is so uncertain as personal savings are up, individual borrowing is down and the transactions that concluded were not below average house prices so there are signs of robustness there.

TheSheriff

Augeo wrote: »

"......... although considerable uncertainty around demand,"

that would come as a surprise to many in here surely?

Certainly to many over in the buying and selling thread anyway........

Assetbacked

There's a useful resource called propertydistrict.ie which publishes a weekly roundup of property-related news of that week, on the Sunday of the week. I may have posted it before but here is the link; https://propertydistrict.ie/sunday-property-round-up-4th-october-2020/

A lot of the links are probably posted throughout this thread anyway, but I find it useful just to see all the property news stories collated in one place anyway.

handlemaster

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/living-on-the-brink-what-can-we-do-about-long-term-mortgage-arrears-39583347.html

hard to believe there are nearly 5000 mortgages that are 10 years in arrears. The owners have gotten one hell of a deal there.

Cyrus

handlemaster wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/living-on-the-brink-what-can-we-do-about-long-term-mortgage-arrears-39583347.html

hard to believe there are nearly 5000 mortgages that are 10 years in arrears. The owners have gotten one hell of a deal there.

youd want to be made of stern stuff for it not to be a huge emotional toll on you, i dont particulary envy them.

handlemaster

Cyrus wrote: »

youd want to be made of stern stuff for it not to be a huge emotional toll on you, i dont particulary envy them.

10 years for free rent , free mortgage, I would say there is not a bother on them. What's going to happen to them now ?

Cyrus

handlemaster wrote: »

10 years for free rent , free mortgage, I would say there is not a bother on them. What's going to happen to them now ?

its not really that simple though, that said its ridiculous that a situation like that can persist.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

its not really that simple though, that said its ridiculous that a situation like that can persist.

It is ridiculous and brings back up the one of the fundamental arguments that I have made here that you are better off having a mortgage even if you pay a higher price now then say in 12 months as apposed to being in rental accommodation. The mortgage repayments can be stopped if your in a bad way financially and you have Pips, Abhaile, MABs and a host of other left leaning groups to fight your case for free. Yet if you rent..see how far you get with your landlord not paying

flexcon

Think I am being suckered into buying a new build in Cork.

Saved a good amount from the lockdown. First time buyer, combined income 100K mortgage 280K on a 365K house. The past few weeks have been stressful wondering to wait and save more, or just take the 30K goverment incentive before end of the year.

Mortgage advisors are meh. Maybe I am just asking too much or asking for the magic answer.

This thread has helped me awake at night to some extent!

fliball123

flexcon wrote: »

Think I am being suckered into buying a new build in Cork.

Saved a good amount from the lockdown. First time buyer, combined income 100K mortgage 280K on a 365K house. The past few weeks have been stressful wondering to wait and save more, or just take the 30K goverment incentive before end of the year.

Mortgage advisors are meh. Maybe I am just asking too much or asking for the magic answer.

This thread has helped me awake at night to some extent!

Its all down to you how your job is, how much you are paying now and a host of other criteria such as kids and how close the school are, etc . I would be wary of asking for advice on here you will get some extremist telling you property is going to drop by 50% in the next year and have absolutely no facts to back this it up.

hometruths

I thought some of the amateur economists might appreciate a different viewpoint of the dynamics at work in the market:

House prices have been blasted into the stratosphere, not because of a shortage of supply, but by the excess of a potent propellant – finance.

House prices will fall when the propellant is withdrawn – and flows of finance decline. Indeed, there are already signs that globally, capital flows are in retreat. Expect Irish house prices to follow suit.

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

It is ridiculous and brings back up the one of the fundamental arguments that I have made here that you are better off having a mortgage even if you pay a higher price now then say in 12 months as apposed to being in rental accommodation. The mortgage repayments can be stopped if your in a bad way financially and you have Pips, Abhaile, MABs and a host of other left leaning groups to fight your case for free. Yet if you rent..see how far you get with your landlord not paying

18 months to eviction and no consequence...RTB judgement or some uncollectible nonsense

Smouse156

flexcon wrote: »

Think I am being suckered into buying a new build in Cork.

Saved a good amount from the lockdown. First time buyer, combined income 100K mortgage 280K on a 365K house. The past few weeks have been stressful wondering to wait and save more, or just take the 30K goverment incentive before end of the year.

Mortgage advisors are meh. Maybe I am just asking too much or asking for the magic answer.

This thread has helped me awake at night to some extent!

Personally I live in Cork and I’d go ahead and buy it. Office in Dublin and hopefully won’t be forced to move up. Should have some clarity next year. If I don’t I’ll buy one myself.

Don’t see any price drops sub 400k in Cork anyway, lots of demand. The Brick Flynn jacked all the prices in Ballinglanna when the increased Help The Brickie was announced. At this range sub 400k up is more likely than down. 500k plus houses, a different story

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I thought some of the amateur economists might appreciate a different viewpoint of the dynamics at work in the market:

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

it seems like this amateur economist is quite taken with it,

am i right :pac::D

Bubbaclaus

schmittel wrote: »

I thought some of the amateur economists might appreciate a different viewpoint of the dynamics at work in the market:

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

That article is 2 years and 4 months old, when exactly will they "follow suit"?

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

it seems like this amateur economist is quite taken with it,

am i right :pac::D

100% - killing two birds with one stone.

hometruths

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

That article is 2 years and 4 months old, when exactly will they "follow suit"?

House prices will fall when the propellant is withdrawn – and flows of finance decline.

I guess if access to credit remains constant or better, then they won’t follow suit.

If you read it, you’ll realize the point of the article is not to give you a date you can mark in your calendar.

handlemaster

Cyrus wrote: »

its not really that simple though, that said its ridiculous that a situation like that can persist.

in financial terms call a spade a spade.

handlemaster

OwlsZat wrote: »

Didn't see this mentioned.

https://passivehouseplus.ie/news/projects/dun-laoghaire-passive-house-scheme-will-be-one-of-world-s-largest

Looks a great project. Hopefully, we will see many more similar developments.

How much for these houses ?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

I thought some of the amateur economists might appreciate a different viewpoint of the dynamics at work in the market:

Irish house prices sky-high due to finance not scarcity

What makes you think that credit will dry up anytime soon? Yes the banks have more Non performing loans and which will eat into capital reserves but there is no sign of any credit crunch coming (at least in residential property CRE may be different). In the short term all it will mean is mortgage rates will increase due to additional RWA’s