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Share Picks 2020

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robman60

padjocollins wrote: »

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/09/is-exxon-the-next-general-electric/

I've seen the article. Could well be right. However, I do think the transition away from oil will be a slow one. If a lot of smaller players are forced out it should benefit the majors too.

Bob Harris

robman60 wrote: »

Anyone going in on some oil plays? I'm young and willing to take some risk, I recognise the short term is dismal and very long-term may not be great but looking for a 5 year play. Is shell the best bet or should I look to XOM or something else?

Oil will probably be in a worse position in 5 years than it is now. If I was to invest in oil it would have to be those investing heavily in renewables which is most except Exxon.

robman60

Bob Harris wrote: »

Oil will probably be in a worse position in 5 years than it is now. If I was to invest in oil it would have to be those investing heavily in renewables which is most except Exxon.

Not sure about the first part but I basically agree on Exxon. They're focused solely on being the best oil company while everyone else is looking to renewables.

I'm thinking I'll go with Shell and possibly some Energy Transfer as a riskier bet if it gets to around $5 (I know both are quite risky).

Shedite27

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Hello,

I've got approx 1200 shares in RR which I obtained when I was in England working for the company. I've got caught out with them as they spiralled downwards to yesterdays Rights Issue announcement.

They were bought in at avg of ~£6.

My question is, what should be be planning to do now? Do I sell up and take the loss, do I just hold on, do I partake in the RI?

My understanding is that if you have shares in the company as of 4th November you will be able to purchase 10 shares for every 3 you currently hold for the price of 32p each. This means that the number of share in existence will potentially quadruple (13/3) if all shareholders partake.

I'm not sure how or what to do now - I thought I'd ride it out initially, but it seems like lockdown and quarantine is going to last longer than I had expected. I think I have the following 'options':
Cut losses and sell out

Hold shares and hope for recovery in long term to a point where buy in price is covered - or losses minimised

Purchase full RI amount of 4,000 shares (1200/3 * 10) at a cost of £1,280 to avoid share dilution

Purchase a smaller amount (if possible?)

This investment is not critical to me - I can afford to let it recover, if it will. However, if I would be better to cash out now then so be it.

From reading up, they seemed to have turned the corner with the T1k premature wearing issue and had the bribery case resolved too. There are some issues with XWB that I read somewhere - but this current predicament would appear to be mainly Covid related and a business model which did not anticipate a pandemic paralysing the industry for almost a year. The main concern I have for their aerospace division in the medium to long term is the lack of placement in the single isle market. They seem to rely heavily on the long haul market for their income and really need to get a product onto A320/B737 single isle type aircraft for the short haul market.

Would be interesting to read some other thoughts an opinions on what people would do in my situation.

So put it this way, you currently have about €1,500 in Rolls Royce shares. If you had €1,500 in cash, would you buy RR shares, or buy something else?

I have a similar prediciment, end up taking the loss on my work shares most years, and move what's left to growth shares. You can declare the loss on your RR shares and use that to offset future CGT shares.

[Deleted User]

If IAG is anything to go by it'll dip down to close to the rights issue price. IAG currently trading at approx €1. The rights issue price was €0.92.

Not sure if that has any relevance.

dontparkhere

I'm faring badly with IAG after the rights issue (bep 1.45)
I was just considering buying share in Rolls Royce as a long term position when I learned about the rights issue.
What do people think of these companies? Catching a falling knife? Will there be an immediate bump if a vaccine is approved or will it be a slow recovery?
I am a young and in for the long haul. Toying with the idea of oil too.... maybe I'm better off finding a new hobby

[Deleted User]

^^^ I think it will spike on good news. One such would be if Trump survives and its credited to experimental drugs, but the rebound will come with the announcement of a vaccine. That could be months (or longer). Will RR and IAG survive without further dilution?

[Deleted User]

You might also not want to watch BBC news right now.

One More Toy

What time do future's start trading at? I know its Sunday night our time

Bob Harris

One More Toy wrote: »

What time do future's start trading at? I know its Sunday night our time

11pm Irish time I think.

manonboard

One of the things that i find scary with Rolls Royce is that the Q3 results will not be out at the time of the RI.. I would really like to know what the results are first.

They are unlikely to give a preliminary outlook about them too.. which scares me regards taking up the RI.
fyi:
I bought 5k at 210, 5k at 170, Average was 10k at 190.

I sold out at 145... and it was too much for me to be losing each day..
I hated selling as it was a big loss, but now obviously it looked like that was a great decision.

I'm surprised it's not falling further since pretty much everyone is expecting it to fall further.. i cant see why so many have NOT sold yet.. even with the outlook of buying back in in a few weeks.

RR as a service industry with it's military and power systems is a good investment, i think the UK gov would want to keep it going... but the BOD have NOT helped well.. The uncertainty around the covid/rights issue/capital raising was left soooo uncertain and it decimated the SP.

If it hits 50, i'll be putting 5k back in.

Shedite27

One More Toy wrote: »

What time do future's start trading at? I know its Sunday night our time

Lot of green on the board

p to the e

Could Cineworld be a decent long play? Stock price halved this morning on closure news but all news points to it being a temporary shut.

RIGOLO

Pressure .. it get such a bad rap but in many ways pressure is a privelege ...sometimes it can be a good thing like when an exploratory oil well blows ...

NYCT .. the pressure was building and she has started to blow, been calling it for a week hope some people got in at £4 , sitting at £6.40 and 7 yoyo

up 14% in France , 11% in London and I feel theres alot more to come, expecting an RNS
Those tight French buggers dont budge unless theres something coming .
A move like this is far more than just a short squeeze or some manipulation to turn a few trades, this sort of moves tells me something bigger is in the works. Potential French contract, talk of an even bigger UK NHS contract, buyout, who knows .. might not be too late to jump aboard.

Blue Monday is always a great start. Now lets see if we have a green afternoon after that US golf course owner seems to be on the mend.

AmberGold

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Thinking about cashing out now and then going back in if it goes sub 70p. Wise decision or should I go elsewhere?
Just rechecked - I've got 1200 at approx £4.

Don't feel too bad I've 1200 @ £4.20.

RIGOLO

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Whats your plan?

WE have all been in this position on a holding.
Id advise you to sell now. You should never 'marry' a stock . Use the loss against your CGT for this year or hold and plan to use it for next year.
RR isnt going anywhere positive soon IMO.
Buy into somethign that you will plan to hold into next year, and resign yourself you may never make the whole amount back.
I gave some tips in a few previous posts,

Do your own due diligence . Caveat emptor. And remember we are all big boys here, this isnt a no foal no fee, prize for every participant game.
Sincerely ... good luck ..

AmberGold

I'll be holding until at least the point where vaccine's are being rolled out, I've a fair few underwater RDS, XOM & TLW. I bought low enough to not be overly concerned they won't comeback.

I've two investment accounts one with DeGiro which was my first and the one I used when I started out, its 7% up on the year because of some bad bets I made on Energy, the likes of RR and late entry's on tech stocks.

I've a second account in Interactive, this was opened 6 months or so after my Degiro and is mainly made up of SPAC's like IPOB, PSTH, FMCI & good entry's points on tech stocks like API, FSLY. Its up 38% with no stock less than 8%.

The pain I'm in from the Energy & RR play I'm putting down to a learning experience and playing the waiting game. It shouldn't be long now.

HelloYoungBoy

GAN up nearly 18% in pre market. Announced a 10 year agreement with Wynn Resorts this morning to be the enterprise software platform for its Internet sports betting and Internet casino gaming business. Some good news after a rough period lately

One More Toy

Entering workday today, fingers crossed!

One More Toy

New report from citron research on Compass Pathways, currently under 50usd with a price target of 100usd

RIGOLO

One More Toy wrote: »

New report from citron research on Compass Pathways, currently under 50usd with a price target of 100usd

Citron .. :eek: .. should cary a govt health warning
Why are they pumping a stock when he is a known major short seller

April 20 : Shares of Novavax dropped from their highs after Andrew Left's Citron Search predicted the shares will fall to $15.

NVAX currently sit at $108

Andrew Left and his research :rolleyes: team got burned on INO NVAX BCRX and MRNA during major runs they made.
He also shorted TSLA (early 2020) and SHOPIFY (early 2019) afaik

IMO follow Citron at your peril , their CEO got banned from trading in HK

One More Toy

RIGOLO wrote: »

Citron .. :eek: .. should cary a govt health warning
Why are they pumping a stock when he is a known major short seller

NVAX currently sit at $108

Andrew Left and his research :rolleyes: team got burned on INO NVAX BCRX and MRNA during major runs they made.
He also shorted TSLA (early 2020) and SHOPIFY (early 2019) afaik

IMO follow Citron at your peril , their CEO got banned from trading in HK

Wise words, just mentioned it out of curiosity, has popped today. Its on the basis of treating depression with magic mushrooms!

RIGOLO

One More Toy wrote: »

Wise words, just mentioned it out of curiosity, has popped today. Its on the basis of treating depression with magic mushrooms!

By the sounds of it Citron is pumping this stock cos he is taking the product.

Who knows it may jump just understand the background of the people who you are dealing with , just be careful who you listen to on these investment boards, says random stranger in the ether.

ganmo

ganmo wrote: »

I bought some lagardere at €13 a month ago, it's at €21.30 now

25.30 now

One More Toy

RIGOLO wrote: »

By the sounds of it Citron is pumping this stock cos he is taking the product.

Who knows it may jump just understand the background of the people who you are dealing with , just be careful who you listen to on these investment boards, says random stranger in the ether.

Maybe I'll try it myself as I struggle badly with depression!

RIGOLO

One More Toy wrote: »

Maybe I'll try it myself as I struggle badly with depression!

sorry to hear that... look after yourself.

Treppen

One More Toy wrote: »

Maybe I'll try it myself as I struggle badly with depression!

Buddy don't do that, these studies are under lovely clinical trial conditions with kind and understanding psychotherapists. Not in some mankey field of dreams in West Cork that makes you think you're the guy in wickerMan .

Meanwhile... My Canadian pot stocks have gone to pot. Anyone jump in back in 2007 still holding now just out of novelty!

One More Toy

Treppen wrote: »

Buddy don't do that, these studies are under lovely clinical trial conditions with kind and understanding psychotherapists. Not in some mankey field of dreams in West Cork that makes you think you're the guy in wickerMan .

Meanwhile... My Canadian pot stocks have gone to pot. Anyone jump in back in 2007 still holding now just out of novelty!

Ah I know I was only messing

but laughed at your description!

Edit:messing about the mushrooms, the depression is real

OwlsZat

One More Toy wrote: »

Maybe I'll try it myself as I struggle badly with depression!

It will be the treatment for depression in the future for sure. Actually wish I could just speed up the world and come back in 5 years when it's all gone through the global approval stages. Obviously, Ireland will be a further 10 years back which is disappointing but likely places you could travel to in Europe in 5. Ludicious state of play but big pharma would rather you suscribe to their molecules instead. I'd wager will we look back at the last 50 years of mental health treatment as an awful set of experiments.

One More Toy

OwlsZat wrote: »

It will be the treatment for depression in the future for sure. Actually wish I could just speed up the world and come back in 5 years when it's all gone through the global approval stages. Obviously, Ireland will be a further 10 years back which is disappointing but likely places you could travel to in Europe in 5. Ludicious state of play but big pharma would rather you suscribe to their molecules instead. I'd wager will we look back at the last 50 years of mental health treatment as an awful set of experiments.

Perhaps; I manage mine with meds (at great cost). Mad to think lobotomies etc were once standard treatment

Anyway back to stocks. Did well today probably due to the orange man getting out of hospital