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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Prices kept going up even with less buyers and less bidders. That means strong confidence

But wasn't all that "pent-up" demand the media were peddling from Q2 meant to feed through to an increase in transactions activity in Q3? And Q3 2020 transaction levels were still down c. 40% on Q3 2019.

Cantstandsya

schmittel wrote: »

that PPR report indicates national prices are down 4% and Dublin prices are down 3% year on year to September?

Asking price or sold price, we all know that the only one that counts is the one that shows whatever the poster wants it to show.

OwlsZat

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Todays IT -

Housing crisis will become a monster unless the State kills it now

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/housing-crisis-will-become-a-monster-unless-the-state-kills-it-now-1.4369551?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhousing-crisis-will-become-a-monster-unless-the-state-kills-it-now-1.4369551

The Irish Times articles can be shortened down to buy now. What an absolute rag of a paper they have become.

Smouse156

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Asking price or sold price, we all know that the only one that counts is the one that shows whatever the poster wants it to show.

Obviously sold & realised prices are what’s relevant. Loads of overpriced asking prices on properties that will never sell so they can hardly be compared with selling data.

LuasSimon

Is it not the case that as wages stagnate and others lose their jobs there will be fewer people able to afford to buy houses particularly in Dublin ??
Is it property funds and large landlords and a small amount of rich people that are buying many of these houses in Dublin ?

King Cantona

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Asking price or sold price, we all know that the only one that counts is the one that shows whatever the poster wants it to show.

Exactly this. Neutral guy was constantly slated for using asking prices as an indicator of falling house prices previously on this thread. Now that asking prices are up and sold prices are down, it suits to quote the asking prices to suit the argument that house prices are on the rise.

MacronvFrugals

Hey folks, see a situation like this its like a builder has built 3 houses together and has sold 2 and kept the other.

https://bidx1.com/en/en-ie/auction/property/43109

But on the PRR it only has 1A sold for 295k when it was actually both 1A/1B

Bass Reeves

OwlsZat wrote: »

The Irish Times articles can be shortened down to buy now. What an absolute rag of a paper they have become.

I think you should read the article again, and after read it again. Then when you have finished think about what's in the article for about an hour . Then read it again. Then comment on it because nowhere is he saying rush out and buy a house. Rather he is analyzing what is happening and giving an opinion on what needs to be done to rectify the housing crisis. I never consider Mark Paul on the side of investors or property owners.

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking Prices
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

Price Register

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

thanks

i was asking propqueries where the reports are of the massive jump in property buying he keeps referring to.

PropQueries

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Asking price or sold price, we all know that the only one that counts is the one that shows whatever the poster wants it to show.

That's a good point. But if everyone waits to make comments on the housing market until the PPR is updated, then they're commenting on a market that probably existed 6-12 months ago.

Asking prices at least signal where the market is going and if used in conjunction with other available data, people can at least make predictions. Whether they turn out correct or not, it's all they have to go by.

But then again, asking prices probably lag the market as well and they're probably sticky both on the way up and on the way down until all available information eventually filters through.

Marius34

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Asking Prices
https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

Price Register

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/

Those are not great indicators, the reason that from what I understand its Raw Medians without adjustment. So it can vary the price widely, especially if there are any larger "bulk" sales.
The shorter period of time you take (less properties) the larger fluctuation we would see.
Of course if you have consistent large jump for number of months, that could definitely mean something.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

That's a good point. But if everyone waits to make comments on the housing market until the PPR is updated, then they're commenting on a market that probably existed 6-12 months ago.

Asking prices at least signal where the market is going and if used in conjunction with other available data, people can at least make predictions. Whether they turn out correct or not, it's all they have to go by.

But then again, asking prices probably lag the market as well and they're probably sticky both on the way up and on the way down until all available information eventually filters through.

can you point me to the media reports you referenced, id be interested to read them.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

thanks

i was asking propqueries where the reports are of the massive jump in property buying he keeps referring to.

Well, the residential property editor of the Irish Independent stated back on the 29th June that "No plunge in prices yet, as some pent-up demand keeps market going".

In the Irish Times on 9th July: “Early signals from house buyers post-Covid-19 indicate demand for housing stock remains stable and has been unaffected by the coronavirus.”

Both the Irish Independent and Irish Times were at the very least alluding to a coming big increase on buying activity and there appeared to be very little commentary about was really happening on the ground i.e. the coming big drop in transactions.

It’s now three months later and transactions are probably down c.40% in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019 (according to the recent MyHome report) and the Q3 2020 figures were meant to include all that "pent-up" demand from Q2 2020.

If a c. 40% fall in housing transactions has the same meaning as "pent-up demand keeps market going" or market "been unaffected by the coronavirus", maybe I'm wrong.

Link to Irish Independent article: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/no-plunge-in-prices-yet-as-some-pent-up-demand-keeps-market-going-39323395.html

Link to Irish Times article: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-demand-stable-after-lockdown-estate-agency-reports-1.4299093

Graham

Interesting selective interpretation there.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Interesting selective interpretation there.

Of course

awec

I don't see any mention of an increase in buying activity in those quotes.

Sales are down 40%. What does this indicate? Well, it can be either one of two things:

1. There is a glut of houses sitting for sale that can't be sold.
2. There are up to 40% fewer houses up for sale compared to this time last year.

We already know, for example, that supply is at it's lowest since the mid-00s, so significantly fewer sales should surprise nobody and was indeed predicted on here by almost everybody.

I think what is being indicated is that by and large, people selling houses (of which there are significantly fewer compared to a year ago) are not finding it overly difficult, because there is still a level of demand there relative to the current supply. Whether or not this demand is there purely because of pent-up demand over lockdown, or because people are genuinely buying, nobody knows.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, the residential property editor of the Irish Independent stated back on the 29th June that "No plunge in prices yet, as some pent-up demand keeps market going".

In the Irish Times on 9th July: “Early signals from house buyers post-Covid-19 indicate demand for housing stock remains stable and has been unaffected by the coronavirus.”

Both the Irish Independent and Irish Times were at the very least alluding to a coming big increase on buying activity and there appeared to be very little commentary about was really happening on the ground i.e. the coming big drop in transactions.

It’s now three months later and transactions are probably down c.40% in Q3 2020 compared to Q3 2019 (according to the recent MyHome report) and the Q3 2020 figures were meant to include all that "pent-up" demand from Q2 2020.

If a c. 40% fall in housing transactions has the same meaning as "pent-up demand keeps market going" or market "been unaffected by the coronavirus", maybe I'm wrong.

Link to Irish Independent article: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/no-plunge-in-prices-yet-as-some-pent-up-demand-keeps-market-going-39323395.html

Link to Irish Times article: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/housing-demand-stable-after-lockdown-estate-agency-reports-1.4299093

so there arent any articles referring to 'massive jumps' in property buying.

as i thought.

Pelezico

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I think you should read the article again, and after read it again. Then when you have finished think about what's in the article for about an hour . Then read it again. Then comment on it because nowhere is he saying rush out and buy a house. Rather he is analyzing what is happening and giving an opinion on what needs to be done to rectify the housing crisis. I never consider Mark Paul on the side of investors or property owners.

Why should he read it even once? The Irish Times is hardly worthy of a scholarly study. It is a pure shill for the property market. The hint is in the title...housing crisis.

There is no housing crisis. In Dublin alone, the census identified a significant number of vacant properties which several on this thread do not believe. They would prefer to believe a desktop study by Fingal and a comment by Uncle Leo.

And if only to support this vacant property thesis, a recent comment on thread identified a block of apartments being sold twenty five in total, nine of which are vacant.

So...The Irish Times is a shill for myhome.ie. Because that is how they make their money.

Oh...and it is a complete rag.

awec

There is no housing crisis he says. The decade long housing list is imaginary.

The Fingal council study cannot be trusted, but sure look a guy on boards.ie found a property listing with 9 empty apartments which proves there's no housing crisis.

tigger123

OwlsZat wrote: »

The Irish Times articles can be shortened down to buy now. What an absolute rag of a paper they have become.

I really don't understand this perspective.

Genuine question; in what way does the company who owns both the Irish Times and myhome.ie benefit from (what some people see) as them talking up the market?

People who are looking for a house are going to be looking at myhome.ie anyway. Articles in the IT discussing property do not create or stimulate the market. Its not as if myhome.ie get a commission for every home sold on it.

So, how would it be to their benefit?

Housing, and the lack thereof, is probably one of the most important social issues of our generation. It was one of the most prominent issues in the last GE. It is only natural that the issue be featured in the IT.

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

There is no housing crisis he says. The decade long housing list is imaginary.

The Fingal council study cannot be trusted, but sure look a guy on boards.ie found a property listing with 9 empty apartments which proves there's no housing crisis.

I dont see many people on the streets. And with the demise of airbnb and reduced immigration there will be a surplus of housing in the next year.

Pelezico

tigger123 wrote: »

I really don't understand this perspective.

Genuine question; in what way does the company who owns both the Irish Times and myhome.ie benefit from (what some people see) as them talking up the market?

People who are looking for a house are going to be looking at myhome.ie anyway. Articles in the IT discussing property do not create or stimulate the market. Its not as if myhome.ie get a commission for every home sold on it.

So, how would it be to their benefit?

Housing, and the lack thereof, is probably one of the most important social issues of our generation. It was one of the most prominent issues in the last GE. It is only natural that the issue be featured in the IT.

They have a massive vested interest in property. They own myhome.ie, which is probably the only thing keeping this rag afloat.

So yes....they need lots if advertising and selling.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

There is no housing crisis he says. The decade long housing list is imaginary.

The Fingal council study cannot be trusted, but sure look a guy on boards.ie found a property listing with 9 empty apartments which proves there's no housing crisis.

Once again and only because you brought it up

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

The projected demand for housing in Ireland is highly dependent upon net migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum indefinitely. I don't believe that's realistic given that the hospitality industry and other sectors etc. will be on their knees for the foreseeable future.

Central Bank Report - Housing Demand Projections (December 2019):

https://centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-economic-letter-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-10-december-2019#:~:text=Today%20the%20Central%20Bank%20of,Thomas%20Conefrey%20and%20David%20Staunton.&text=Assuming%20a%20lower%20level%20of,per%20annum%20out%20to%202030

Vacant Homes in Ireland - Census Q2 2016: c. 180,000
Vacant Homes in Ireland - GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020: c. 90,000
Vacant Homes England in 2018 with ten times our population: c. 216,000

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

I dont see many people on the streets. And with the demise of airbnb and reduced immigration there will be a surplus of housing in the next year.

Surely there will be surplus of housing (for you), as it appears it always was the case for decades based on Census data.
There are thousands "vacant" houses, that are in use and has regular inhabitants. As it's clear from Census information.
Unfortunately for most of them owners use them, thus won't get for sale.

Pelezico

PropQueries wrote: »

Once again and only because you brought it up

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

The projected demand for housing in Ireland is highly dependent upon net migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum indefinitely. I don't believe that's realistic given that the hospitality industry and other sectors etc. will be on their knees for the foreseeable future.

Central Bank Report - Housing Demand Projections (December 2019):

https://centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-economic-letter-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-10-december-2019#:~:text=Today%20the%20Central%20Bank%20of,Thomas%20Conefrey%20and%20David%20Staunton.&text=Assuming%20a%20lower%20level%20of,per%20annum%20out%20to%202030

Vacant Homes in Ireland - Census Q2 2016: c. 180,000
Vacant Homes in Ireland - GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020: c. 90,000
Vacant Homes England in 2018 with ten times our population: c. 216,000

The census identified a massive number of vacant homes which people seek to dismiss.

The Fingal study...if one can call a desk top study a study is less reliable than the census.

Vacant homes numbers must be bigger now with demise of airbnb.

And...I dont see many people living on the streets. Now homelessness would mean a crisis.

jill_valentine

tigger123 wrote: »

I really don't understand this perspective.

Genuine question; in what way does the company who owns both the Irish Times and myhome.ie benefit from (what some people see) as them talking up the market?

People who are looking for a house are going to be looking at myhome.ie anyway. Articles in the IT discussing property do not create or stimulate the market. Its not as if myhome.ie get a commission for every home sold on it.

So, how would it be to their benefit?

Housing, and the lack thereof, is probably one of the most important social issues of our generation. It was one of the most prominent issues in the last GE. It is only natural that the issue be featured in the IT.

All true, and I don't go all the way in on IT being totally useless, but they do have a clear taste for "property porn" going back a long ways. Their angle on property is rarely in the context of the homelessness crisis - far more often it's in the context of property as an investment, real and aspirational, which feels rather surreal as a mid 30 something with a ton of invisibly homeless professional friends.

WRT MyHome, they have a clear interest in maintaining energy in the property market, ie constantly presenting it as a uniquely important time to consider buying, upsizing etc, because a large chunk of myhome.ie's revenue comes from sponsored content by companies like bidx1. The value of that ad space depends on the number of eyeballs passing over it, and if it becomes established wisdom that it's a bad time to buy or sell then people with any leeway at all not to won't even look at the site (vs people who think their chance is just around the corner, who might check once a day). How much traffic they get from the same people is more important than how many people they get. If people decide to keep their powder dry in any quantity, they can find themselves making a lot less money very quickly.

How inclined IT is to let that interest affect their editorial decision making is more subjective question.

Mic 1972

Pelezico wrote: »

The census identified a massive number of vacant homes which people seek to dismiss.

It must be bigger now with demise of airbnb.

And...I dont see many people living on the streets. Now homelessness would mean a crisis.

it's been the case since April, lots of empty apartments.
But investors are still confident with the property market as seen by the recent reports

PropQueries

Pelezico wrote: »

The census identified a massive number of vacant homes which people seek to dismiss.

The Fingal study...if one can call a desk top study a study is less reliable than the census.

Vacant homes numbers must be bigger now with demise of airbnb.

And...I dont see many people living on the streets. Now homelessness would mean a crisis.

True, And even if they were off by tens of thousands, the figure would still be significant.

Smouse156

awec wrote: »

There is no housing crisis he says. The decade long housing list is imaginary.

The Fingal council study cannot be trusted, but sure look a guy on boards.ie found a property listing with 9 empty apartments which proves there's no housing crisis.

Hahahaha, post of the day ðŸ‘

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

The census identified a massive number of vacant homes which people seek to dismiss.

The Fingal study...if one can call a desk top study a study is less reliable than the census.

Vacant homes numbers must be bigger now with demise of airbnb.

And...I dont see many people living on the streets. Now homelessness would mean a crisis.

How can a study where the council went to vacant properties with the explicit goal of checking if they were really vacant be less reliable than using unreturned census forms?

I mean if I want to check if my neighbour is at home, I can either:

1. Use the fact that their car isn't there to declare that they are not home
2. Go and actually ring the doorbell and see if they answer

I think everyone would agree that #2 is more reliable.