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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Comments

ihdxwz4a3pem9j

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It's 0.0625%.

While speaking specifically about deaths, that is correct in absolute terms, presented in another way, that means that in every 10,000 people, 6.75 people will die due to covid, or 37.5 in Lucan, 13.5 in somewhere the equivalent population of Tipperary town, 67.5 people in Limerick, 78 in Cork, or 675 in Dublin. This figure is rising. On a human level, this means that every person in the US is likely to know somebody who has died from Covid. And this figure ignores those who have persistent disability related to Covid, which is likely a much higher figure (hyper fatigue, breathlessness due to fibrosis of lungs, impaired mentation, etc)

Outlaw Pete

Carfacemandog wrote: »

There were an estimated 700mn - 1.4bn global cases to go with the estimated 60mn US cases. 60mn as a percentage of 1.4bn is 4.3% - 8.6%. There were also 12,000 deaths in the US compared to the about 285,000 globally - 4.2%. With Covid, the US accounts for about 22% of all cases and 21% of all deaths.

There are no two ways about it, relative to the rest of the planet the US response to Covid-19 has been far, far worse to that of N1H1.

Like I said, absurd to make comparisons between the two and then claim that the diluting of the stats in such fashion makes the case you appear to think it does and my citing of the 60 million wasn't to say Obama did a bad job by the way, but in fact to show that he hadn't done this amazing job you appear to think he did with regards to preventing its spread.

As it turns out, poor and weak leadership resulting in encouraging people to pack into venues in huge numbers and ignore social distancing ..

You mean like this when they were trying to suggest that President Trump's focus on the Coronavirus wasn't warranted and was motivated by racism:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emyNXZ8v8sY

being dismissive of wearing masks, railing against states imposing lockdown measures and goading people into armed protests against them, peddling unproven cures/preventative measures, and undermining and criticising experts like Fauci on the matter all play large roles in this.

Just because you infer something from someone's words and actions doesn't mean that it was justified to do so, and much of the above is you doing just that. As for ignoring Fauci":

Watters: "Dr.Fauci said that whenever you guys have gone to the President with a serious scientific recommendation he's absorbed that and taken action"

Dr. Birx: "That is absolutely correct"

Professor Moriarty

FFS, Trump should be charged with manslaughter.

Silentcorner

Joe Biden wraps up early again today I understand...he is essentially working at half pace.

Kamala Harris is being low key also so she is not picking up the slack.

The campaign is just adrift...have we ever seen anything like it? I mean when the optics are this bad!!!

This can't be going unnoticed in media...they are seeing the empty schedule every 2nd day or so, they are seeing the lack of ground support, they ain't talking about it as far as I can see!!!

There is no ground campaign in terms of canvassers.

bobbyy gee

older voters abandoning Trump

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/

Cody montana

bobbyy gee wrote: »

older voters abandoning Trump

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/

Well he’s killed enough of them.

namloc1980

Silentcorner wrote: »

Joe Biden wraps up early again today I understand...he is essentially working at half pace.

Kamala Harris is being low key also so she is not picking up the slack.

The campaign is just adrift...have we ever seen anything like it? I mean when the optics are this bad!!!

This can't be going unnoticed in media...they are seeing the empty schedule every 2nd day or so, they are seeing the lack of ground support, they ain't talking about it as far as I can see!!!

There is no ground campaign in terms of canvassers.

The fact that Biden will likely win the election is driving the Trumpists wild. You can smell the panic in the air. Meanwhile Trump is pulling ads from key battleground states which is highly unusual and very bizarre.

namloc1980

bobbyy gee wrote: »

older voters abandoning Trump

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/

The whole Trump strategy of playing down of the coronavirus and saying it affects hardly anybody doesn't play well to the demographic that are most likely to get very sick or die from it. They are also the age demographic that consistently turnout more than any other.

Outlaw Pete

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

FFS, Trump should be charged with manslaughter.

Are you just being hyperbolic or do you actually mean it?

If the latter, care to unpack that for us.

Beechwoodspark

namloc1980 wrote: »

The fact that Biden will likely win the election is driving the Trumpists wild. You can smell the panic in the air. Meanwhile Trump is pulling ads from key battleground states which is highly unusual and very bizarre.

Is the trump campaign doing that a hint that they think some states are a lost cause at this stage?

gmisk

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Is the trump campaign doing that a hint that they think some states are a lost cause at this stage?

Who knows, I would say possibly they are going to go more online, targeted ads etc

namloc1980

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Is the trump campaign doing that a hint that they think some states are a lost cause at this stage?

It's weird. Especially in the case of Ohio, pulling ads makes no sense because without winning Ohio his path to 270 Electoral College votes looks very difficult.

Silentcorner

bobbyy gee wrote: »

older voters abandoning Trump

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/

Have they done a poll on the black vote by any chance?

Cody montana

“If I'm elected, I won't wait to take action on COVID-19.

Minutes after the race is called, I’ll call Dr. Fauci and ask him to stay on.

During my transition, I’ll bring together experts and leaders from both parties to chart a path forward.

We will overcome this, together.“

Joe Biden

Danzy

Silentcorner wrote: »

Joe Biden wraps up early again today I understand...he is essentially working at half pace.

Kamala Harris is being low key also so she is not picking up the slack.

The campaign is just adrift...have we ever seen anything like it? I mean when the optics are this bad!!!

This can't be going unnoticed in media...they are seeing the empty schedule every 2nd day or so, they are seeing the lack of ground support, they ain't talking about it as far as I can see!!!

There is no ground campaign in terms of canvassers.

It's very unusual. 3 days in a row Joe cancels everything.

Maybe he is just practicing for the debate 12 hours a day, hard to say zoom calls are cancelled cause pandemic.

The chair of the Dems in Texas was wondering what was going on.

If his campaign wants to give Trump rope to hang himself fine but scheduling events and interviews then cancelling that morning isn't on, you can talk to people and still keep it low key.

It's either an audacious strategy or something has gone wrong.

namloc1980

Danzy wrote: »

It's very unusual. 3 days in a row Joe cancels everything.

What exactly was cancelled?

Outlaw Pete

Cody montana wrote: »

“If I'm elected, I won't wait to take action on COVID-19.

Minutes after the race is called, I’ll call Dr. Fauci and ask him to stay on.

During my transition, I’ll bring together experts and leaders from both parties to chart a path forward.

We will overcome this, together.“

Joe Biden

Don't mind Joe Biden, chap just says whatever the hell he thinks people would like him to hear, often with bonus stereotyped language thrown in just to show that he's one of the demographic that the person or group he's talking belong to. About as sneaky and manipulative as it gets. One minute he's an ex civil rights activist and the next he's a miner.

Much like his VP pick who can't stop pandering to African Americans. Hence her tales of smoking joints listening to Tupac in the 80's when the chap hadn't even released a song yet. I now she seems to think he's still alive as she said he was the best rapper alive in an interview recently. Even her Dad knows she's full of it.

https://twitter.com/sandrabo2015/status/1307074234468962305

gizmo

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Don't mind Joe Biden, chap just says whatever the hell he thinks people would like him to hear, often with bonus stereotyped language thrown in just to show that he's one of the demographic that the person or group he's talking belong to. About as sneaky and manipulative as it gets. One minute he's an ex civil rights activist and the next he's a miner.

Much like his VP pick who can't stop pandering to African Americans. Hence her tales of smoking joints listening to Tupac in the 80's when the chap hadn't even released a song yet. I now she seems to think he's still alive as she said he was the best rapper alive in an interview recently. Even her Dad knows she's full of it.

Nope.

Fact check: Kamala Harris did not say she listened to Snoop Dogg and Tupac while smoking marijuana in college

namloc1980

gizmo wrote: »

Nope.

Fact check: Kamala Harris did not say she listened to Snoop Dogg and Tupac while smoking marijuana in college

For people who rail against "fake news" Trumpists sure do a lot of fake news spreading of their own.

Danzy

namloc1980 wrote: »

It's weird. Especially in the case of Ohio, pulling ads makes no sense because without winning Ohio his path to 270 Electoral College votes looks very difficult.

The race in Ohio is polling a dead heat, the Republican candidate for Senate is 8 points ahead.

Who knows.

Trump won't spend on ads and Biden is heading towards half a month off sick 5 weeks out.

Pass the crack pipe.

Beechwoodspark

Very much doubt K Harris love or otherwise of rap music will have a sizeable effect on this election!

namloc1980

Danzy wrote: »

The race in Ohio is polling a dead heat, the Republican candidate for Senate is 8 points ahead.

Is it? Biden is +5 in the latest Fox News poll and is ahead in the consensus polls.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-tight-race-in-ohio-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania.amp

Beechwoodspark

namloc1980 wrote: »

Is it? Biden is +5 in the latest Fox News poll and is ahead in the consensus polls.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-tight-race-in-ohio-biden-tops-trump-in-nevada-and-pennsylvania.amp

That’s quite a lead in fairness

Maybe the trump campaign are cutting their losses and getting out

Pa ElGrande

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Very much doubt K Harris love or otherwise of rap music will have a sizeable effect on this election!

Funny thing is Trump has featured in quite a few rap lyrics in the years prior to his election. Meanwhile in Atlanta, Trump is playing Santa Claus to Black America. I think his ego is writing cheques his body can't cash.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7MTszBtJ70

namloc1980

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

That’s quite a lead in fairness

Maybe the trump campaign are cutting their losses and getting out

Maybe but the chances of winning the electoral college for Trump without Ohio are very very low. Weird strategy. Although Trump's strategy all around is weird: alienating 65+ demographic who heavily voted for him in 2016 by downplaying coronavirus and telling them hardly anybody gets affected is just downright bizarre.

Silentcorner

namloc1980 wrote: »

For people who rail against "fake news" Trumpists sure do a lot of fake news spreading of their own.

I think most sensible individuals are aware that both candidates are going to be victims of doctored or edited clips/content circulated by both mainstream and alternative media.

I'm not kidding when I say it, that was a real help pointing out that doctored video...it ain't always easy to spot them.

Pa ElGrande

1st Debate will be interesting next week, they are going to have to put a serious dent in him.

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1309498982415175681

Timberrrrrrrr

namloc1980 wrote: »

For people who rail against "fake news" Trumpists sure do a lot of fake news spreading of their own.

Well to be fair we haven't had any manipulated video clips today so I suppose someone had to step up to the plate.

namloc1980

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

1st Debate will be interesting next week, they are going to have to put a serious dent in him.

https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1309498982415175681

Rasmussen approval polls are highly unreliable. They are literally the only pollsters who have Trump with a positive job approval rating. Highly dubious.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls

Silentcorner

namloc1980 wrote: »

Rasmussen approval polls are highly unreliable. They are literally the only pollsters who have Trump with a positive job approval rating. Highly dubious.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls

See, I'd accept that, I am kind of familiar of how polls differ, it is the same here in Ireland.

But then, what polls lean the other way?

And didn't they have trouble finding/polling Trump supporters last time so surely Rasmussen were accurate enough.