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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Comments

Silentcorner

Tell me how wrote: »

If you are honest, you know that Trump doesn't come close to Biden in terms of who has the more integrity.

I don't think anyone at National Politics level has integrity...you'd be fairly innocent if you think they have...they are all worth tens of millions...how do you think they got that money?

Outlaw Pete

Tell me how wrote: »

200,000 Covid Deaths
Highest unemployment rate in centuries
Reversal of Environment Protection Measures
Empowerment of Russia in interfering in external affairs
US unity at lowest level in most of our life times.

How exactly is he doing a tremendous job?

Are you just going to ignore that each of the points above have been debated and each one lost by your side of the aisle?

They were all weak arguments to begin with. Listing them all together doesn't change that.

Igotadose

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Are you just going to ignore that each of the points above have been debated and each one lost by your side of the aisle?

They were all weak arguments to begin with. Listing them all together doesn't change that.

None of these points have been debated; further, all of them are true, so unless you're just making it up, post your facts to refute that there haven't been 200,000 deaths, to start with.

Igotadose

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

What exactly do they mean by national security? Does that mean defending US borders or crossing other countries borders? Isn't national security just a euphemism for the media military industrial complex foreign interventions? It seems to me that Biden is courting the permanent government (aka the Deep State) rather than Democrat voters.

Instead of being lazy (a typical tGOP poster behavior on these boards,) do look at the signatories of this letter and then come back to us.

Here's some hints: most are retired. Many are ex-military and ex-N.S.A.

Silentcorner

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Are you just going to ignore that each of the points above have been debated and each one lost by your side of the aisle?

They were all weak arguments to begin with. Listing them all together doesn't change that.

They can't see it...

They seem to think that Trump is the only person voters are voting on.

This last 6 months have been unprecedented...a pandemic, lockdowns (to varying degrees), economic crashes (to varying degrees), BLM Riots nationwide, a huge surge in gun ownership, who is on the right side of all of those?

The so called Red States and the Blue States have had two pretty different 6 months.

This is also a vote on the Democrat Party....it is a presidential election. You only need to look at the complete absence in public support and if you are not getting uncomfortable you should probably start thinking about it.

DangerScouse

Momentum seems to be building for the president now. So much energy and enthusiasm which Americans love to see. Biden can't seem to get out of his house let alone look presidential.

hirondelle

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Are you just going to ignore that each of the points above have been debated and each one lost by your side of the aisle?

They were all weak arguments to begin with. Listing them all together doesn't change that.

Speaking of ignoring points, you may have missed my last reply to you....

Pa ElGrande

Igotadose wrote: »

Instead of being lazy (a typical tGOP poster behavior on these boards,) do look at the signatories of this letter and then come back to us.

Here's some hints: most are retired. Many are ex-military and ex-N.S.A.

Yeah, Federal pensions secured. You should read their letter. The Republicans and Neocons who started the Middle East wars have decamped to the Democrats under Biden. It is an appeal to the authoritarian militarist faction of the Republican party that also form part of Trumps base, the other part of Trumps base are the populists, anti-authoritarian, libertarian, individualist types who do not trust the state, big corporations, big government, big military etc. This disparate group was key to Trump winning the 2016 elections.

Outlaw Pete

hirondelle wrote: »

Speaking of ignoring points, you may have missed my last reply to you....

I said all I had to on the matter. I would just have been repeating myself and linking to the same testimony.

Igotadose wrote: »

None of these points have been debated; further, all of them are true, so unless you're just making it up, post your facts to refute that there haven't been 200,000 deaths, to start with.

Covid Deaths, Unemployment, Roll Back of Environment Protection, Russia, Division in US etc have all been discussed on the thread and each one shown framed falsely by the left in an effort to fit the Orange Man narrative with little or no regard for the truth.

Igotadose

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Yeah, Federal pensions secured. You should read their letter. The Republicans and Neocons who started the Middle East wars have decamped to the Democrats under Biden. It is an appeal to the authoritarian militarist faction of the Republican party that also form part of Trumps base, the other part of Trumps base are the populists, anti-authoritarian, libertarian, individualist types who do not trust the state, big corporations, big government, big military etc. This disparate group was key to Trump winning the 2016 elections.

Not quite the Deep State you claimed earlier, then? And, if they draw away part of Trump's base, all good.

You disagree with the points in the letter then? What's your opinion of this quote from it:

"The next president will inherit a nation – and a world – in turmoil. The current President has demonstrated he is not equal to the enormous responsibilities of his office; he cannot rise to meet challenges large or small. Thanks to his disdainful attitude and his failures, our allies no longer trust or respect us, and our enemies no longer fear us."

https://www.nationalsecurityleaders4biden.com/

hirondelle

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

I said all I had to on the matter. I would just have been repeating myself and linking to the same testimony.

Covid Deaths, Unemployment, Roll Back of Environment Protection, Russia, Division in US etc have all been discussed on the thread and each one shown framed falsely by the left in an effort to fit the Orange Man narrative with little or no regard for the truth.

Well, Pete, that says more about you than you probably want. "I've said all I want to say so the discussion is over" even though you didn't even attempt to answer the direct question about if you would be happy to drink water supplies affected by the issue, but plenty of time with the trite put downs etc. That is bad faith posting in my book.

ranto_boy

Who thinks Trump will win?

I guess it becomes harder if election staff keep throwing away mail-in votes for Trump in key swing states.

Pa ElGrande

Igotadose wrote: »

Not quite the Deep State you claimed earlier, then? And, if they draw away part of Trump's base, all good.

You disagree with the points in the letter then? What's your opinion of this quote from it:

"The next president will inherit a nation – and a world – in turmoil. The current President has demonstrated he is not equal to the enormous responsibilities of his office; he cannot rise to meet challenges large or small. Thanks to his disdainful attitude and his failures, our allies no longer trust or respect us, and our enemies no longer fear us."

https://www.nationalsecurityleaders4biden.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1mlCPMYtPk

How well has Americas role as world police since the turn of the century worked out? How many wars have ended?, countries destroyed and slavery reintroduced? Would you like to sign up?

To sum up: Bosnia (1995), Serbia (1999), Afghanistan (2001-), Libya (2011). The four NATO wars so far, producing two dysfunctional U.S. client-states in the Balkans, a failed two decades-long “counterinsurgency” war in Central Asia, and the destruction of at least one African country.

source

War is the health of the state. Those guys don't care, they won't be driving over IEDs, that is for the working class not the professional class. The US military has become bogged down in unwinnable wars this century and for so long, that new recruits stationed in these countries were not even born when the invasions started. Trump has not ended these wars either, oddly any move he makes in that direction is heavily criticised by the supposed political opposition and by extension the mainstream media. How can you not have turmoil when his opposition does not want the wars to end either? The people who signed that letter want a continuation of the status quo of continuous war, they have nothing to offer.

hetuzozaho

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Even though the polls say Biden will win, I have a fear of his hopes when face to face with the pitbull that is trump - a man who lives for confrontation

Yes debating Trump will not be easy. There is no talking to him. He will just lie. It's crazy to watch him. And that it is allowed happen is even crazier.

Gonna be great watching all the same!

Outlaw Pete

hirondelle wrote: »

...you didn't even attempt to answer the direct question about if you would be happy to drink water supplies affected by the issue ...

No I wouldn't. I'm not Obama.

hetuzozaho

200,000 deaths is crazy with all the warning Trump had and that he said he had it under control. Total lack of leadership when they needed it most.

And still around a 1000 dying each day? How long until those deaths start to decrease, how long do cases need to be down?

And 45,000 new cases yesterday? Are they considered being after their second wave with 45,000 cases? The first wave didn't even hit that did it?

Pa ElGrande

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtkAaoIt55A

This is an overview by Robert Barnes of class and cultural divides in America and how they can impact the outcome of elections. You can skip to 17:00 minutes in if you want to get to the classes that swung for Trump. Essentially the professional upper middle class will swing for Biden, but Trumps base has expanded and will vote for him.

ExMachina1000

hirondelle wrote: »

Well, Pete, that says more about you than you probably want. "I've said all I want to say so the discussion is over" even though you didn't even attempt to answer the direct question about if you would be happy to drink water supplies affected by the issue, but plenty of time with the trite put downs etc. That is bad faith posting in my book.

The same old points are being addressed over and over again only to be met with the same points again.
There are only so many times someone can be expected to repeat themselves.
Your calls of "bad faith" posting are disingenuous

Pa ElGrande

hetuzozaho wrote: »

...
And still around a 1000 dying each day? How long until those deaths start to decrease, how long do cases need to be down?
...

The impact on the election is not the death rate, the impact is the economic, with the dividing line being between those who benefited from the lockdowns and those that lost their jobs or were furloughed.

USA - Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

The data will likely get revised up once everyone reports however, to the week ending 12 September, 2020 - 49,733 people died in the USA from all causes of any kind. That number will likely be revised as more reports are submitted.

The centre for disease control (CDC) measures expected deaths using a statistical method that employs actual deaths in the period 2013-2020.

What is interesting for that week above, the predicted deaths are 52,148. Therefore, excess deaths in that week are (49,733 – 52,148) = –2,415. Excess deaths were negative, suggesting that COVID is no longer augmenting actual deaths to a measurable extent that differs from what one may have expected in its absence.

Igotadose

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

IEDs, that is for the working class not the professional class. The US military has become bogged down in unwinnable wars this century and for so long, that new recruits stationed in these countries were not even born when the invasions started. .

And, who gave the military the enormous budget boost in the last cycle? While barely drawing down any troop levels compared to his predecessor? That'd be the #IMPOTUS.

I don't disagree the US Military runs things in much of the USA, which is tragic. However, it's the GOP that's spiked the pro-militarism as pro-Trump, he's replaced 'patriotism' with 'nationalism', which isn't what it's about.

So, you're o.k. with the #IMPOTUS saying nothing about bounties on soldiers, nor his administration supporting the pro-Democracy movement in Belarus?

hetuzozaho

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

The impact on the election is not the death rate, the impact is the economic,

I'd imagine many different things have an impact on different people and how they vote. Everything he is overseeing at the moment will be looked at.

Manic Moran

Igotadose wrote: »

I don't disagree the US Military runs things in much of the USA, which is tragic.

Wait, what?

I'm trying to think of anything that I've done or seen in the last week which has even a hint of military involvement anywhere in it. I'm fairly sure my mayor has no military chain of command, either official or behind-the-scenes.

And I'm in a city which is nicknamed "Military City USA" because of the number of bases and veterans around here.

The impact on the election is not the death rate, the impact is the economic, with the dividing line being between those who benefited from the lockdowns and those that lost their jobs or were furloughed.

Something I've wondered. The dead can't vote (theoretically, at least, Chicago has historically been an odd one there). The ones who are alive are the ones who are facing bills and want to work. The theoretical of "if I work, I might catch COVID" faces off against the reality of "If I continue to not work, I go bankrupt." I'm not sure I've seen any polling on that sort of thing.

hirondelle

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

No I wouldn't. I'm not Obama.

I'm not Obama either (nor a supporter for that matter), but well done on the pithy non-answer.

It is hard to find a grownup on the pro-Trump side.

hirondelle

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

The same old points are being addressed over and over again only to be met with the same points again.
There are only so many times someone can be expected to repeat themselves.
Your calls of "bad faith" posting are disingenuous

Sorry, read my posts before jumping in to defend another poster- I raised a specific issue of water protection legislation being weakened, Pete engaged by putting a rebuttal/response, I then followed up with a perfectly reasonable response and received a "I've said all I want to say" when you can clearly see that the question wasn't answered- unless you class "I'm not Obama" as an answer.

So- the bad faith claim is anything but disingenuous as you might acknowledge (even to yourself) if you read the posts.

Igotadose

Manic Moran wrote: »

Wait, what?

I'm trying to think of anything that I've done or seen in the last week which has even a hint of military involvement anywhere in it. I'm fairly sure my mayor has no military chain of command, either official or behind-the-scenes.

And I'm in a city which is nicknamed "Military City USA" because of the number of bases and veterans around here.

It's an enormous employer, both directly for the military and indirectly through the giant contractors. And all the SMB's that are in that ecosystem.

This gives 'the military' a lot of sway in politics; try closing a military base, even one for submarines in Idaho. Can't be done.

I'm sure your mayor has no military chain of command. Can he approach his reps and ask for the base to be closed? And get reelected?

That's what I meant about 'running things.' You really see this in the southern US.

[Deleted User]

DangerScouse wrote: »

Momentum seems to be building for the president now. So much energy and enthusiasm which Americans love to see. Biden can't seem to get out of his house let alone look presidential.

Source for the momentum gain?

[Deleted User]

hirondelle wrote: »

Well, Pete, that says more about you than you probably want. "I've said all I want to say so the discussion is over" even though you didn't even attempt to answer the direct question about if you would be happy to drink water supplies affected by the issue, but plenty of time with the trite put downs etc. That is bad faith posting in my book.

Also what safeguards has he put in to maintain safety after such deregulation?

hirondelle

Deleted User wrote: »

Also what safeguards has he put in to maintain safety after such deregulation?

As if Trump would care about such a thing- if the optics of apparent support for farming and extraction industries are sufficient, that is the job done as far as he is concerned.

[Deleted User]

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1mlCPMYtPk

How well has Americas role as world police since the turn of the century worked out? How many wars have ended?, countries destroyed and slavery reintroduced? Would you like to sign up?

War is the health of the state. Those guys don't care, they won't be driving over IEDs, that is for the working class not the professional class. The US military has become bogged down in unwinnable wars this century and for so long, that new recruits stationed in these countries were not even born when the invasions started. Trump has not ended these wars either, oddly any move he makes in that direction is heavily criticised by the supposed political opposition and by extension the mainstream media. How can you not have turmoil when his opposition does not want the wars to end either? The people who signed that letter want a continuation of the status quo of continuous war, they have nothing to offer.

Thing is, America's role in the world is not simply World Police. Getting the world back on track after covid is gonna be a collective global initiative. Trump seems like he'll have decimate the US if he gets another term. Geopolitically they're already heavily damaged.

Pa ElGrande

Igotadose wrote: »

And, who gave the military the enormous budget boost in the last cycle? While barely drawing down any troop levels compared to his predecessor? That'd be the #IMPOTUS.

I don't disagree the US Military runs things in much of the USA, which is tragic. However, it's the GOP that's spiked the pro-militarism as pro-Trump, he's replaced 'patriotism' with 'nationalism', which isn't what it's about.

Be careful, Democrats are traditionally the big war party of the United States and guess who the discredited Neocons that bought us Gulf war II are supporting?

World War I - Woodrow Wilson (D)
World War II - Franklin Delano Roosevelt (D)
Korean War - Harry S. Truman(D), Eisenhower (R)
Vietnam War - John F. Kennedy (D), Lyndon B Johnson (D)
Gulf War I - George Bush (R)
Gulf War II - George W Bush (R) & his VP Dick Cheney
Destruction of Libya - Barack Obama (D)

The Democrats have their interventionist doctrine called responsibility to protect (R2P), heavily promoted by Irish American Samantha Power, that was used as the justification to collapse Libya (an oil producing country), the Neocons call their doctrine bringing freedom and democracy to oppressed countries. (that have oil).

Igotadose wrote: »

So, you're o.k. with the #IMPOTUS saying nothing about bounties on soldiers, nor his administration supporting the pro-Democracy movement in Belarus?

Since the war mongers have decamped to the Democrats for this election cycle, why would this be relevant? Trump did not start the war in Afghanistan, his administration is negotiating their exit. As commander in chief he could just order the American troops home and then he would be impeached. The US military found no proof of the allegation of bounties on soldiers. Why would that story circulate? who benefits by that story? As regards the goings on in Belarus, what proof do you have? I personally doubt the Americans have much interest in a backwater country with no oil or strategic significance to them. I can understand why the leadership of that country and Russia would want to paint the opposition as American operatives and plant such disinformation.