fliball123 wrote: » The 0 - 34 bracket here might just be going up very very soon as there is lots of commentary about corona baby boom. As history has proven when there is a a recession people have no money to do anything so they just stay in and have sex and with corona stopping simple things like going outside for months on end I reckon they were probably like rabbits.https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-baby-boom-may-be-on-the-cards-according-to-holles-street-1014275.htmlhttps://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-braced-for-post-lockdown-baby-boom-191084https://www.irishtimes.com/news/a-little-baby-boom-that-s-catching-everyone-out-1.194350
PropQueries wrote: » As per below census 2016, there’s no future demand from the domestic population. All projected housing demand is based on their net migration projections and they still didn’t include the 90,000 vacant homes (Geodirectory survey 2020 or 180,000 vacant homes as per census 2016, take your pick) just sitting there waiting to re-enter the market. They assume they don’t exist, will disappear or the investment funds who own many of them will not allow them to ever re-enter the market. Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016: 0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus) 35 - 64 Years: +143,932 65 - 85+ Years: +102,174
PropQueries wrote: » Well, we went from building 7,826 residential units in the four quarters to Q1 2016 to building c. 21,000 units last year. Over the past four years we have also built office buildings, Grangegorman campus, thousands of student accomodation units etc. It's a fair guess to estimate that the number of construction workers increased dramatically between 2016 and 2019. Given this increase in construction, many of the people working in construction must have been included in the net migration figures. We can also safely assume the net migration will not be c. 30,000 per annum over the next 5 years given that many immigrants work in the hospitality and construction sectors and even if residential construction increased significantly, this demand can be met from workers previously building student accommodation and offices transfering into building residential. If net migration falls to zero (entirely possible and may actually turn negative) over the next 5 years, we may have overestimated the projected increase in the population over the next 5 years by c. 150,000 (30,000*5) or if an average of three persons to a house, by c. 50,000 homes. This doesn't include the 180,000 vacant homes (per Census 2016) or the 90,000 vacant homes (GeoGirectory Survey 2020), take your pick on which one to believe. Many of these vacant homes are owned by investment funds and they're ready to offload them now. Between 2012 and 2016, they bought 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans. We can also see that the domestic population that would be most interested in renting or buying did not increase meaningfully over the past several years to result in a housing demand/supply problem. All this combined leads me to believe there is a significant over-supply problem.
Augeo wrote: » That would depend on many other variables ......... it might just mean he has less ROI and he can still pay his mortgage from other earnings/resources. Like, are you actually speaking hypothetically or are you on about your stretched brother........... that's rhetorical btw. I agree 100% that house prices are very likely to fall......... and many owner occupiers will be in trouble along with investors if and when they do as house prices don't fall in isolation to the rest of the economy.
rks wrote: » I have limited knowledge about property and would love to see prices coming down. However I don't see that happening immediately. In last 2 months I have tried and been outbid on 5 different properties (apartment and houses) on different locations. Racecourse Pheonix park - For sale 480k, sale agreed 490k Smithfield (apartment) - For sale 450k, sale agreed 460k Kilminham (apartment) - Asking 420k, sale agreed 430k Kilminham (apartment) - Asking 395k, sale agreed 405k Citywest (couple of years old house - newish build) - Asking 350k, sale agreed 374k All of them got sale agreed within couple of weeks being listed. Every one of them sold for above asking. Where's the crash or downturn in prices? Kilmainham apartments went to cash buyers - more like investment properties.
Sheeps wrote: » Almost every survey shows that people would happily pay more tax for better public services. In particular housing. O'Broin is a large part of the reason Sinn Féin did so well in the last election. An increase on the tax you'd pay towards having a proper public housing stock is nothing on what you're paying in rent to private landlords at the moment. Young people looking into the oblivion of the current housing and rental market can see that very clearly.
Augeo wrote: » That would depend on many other variables ......... it might just mean he has less ROI and he can still pay his mortgage from other earnings/resources. Like, are you actually speaking hypothetically or are you on about your stretched brother........... that's rhetorical btw.
brisan wrote: » As I said it’s hypothetical If my brother or anyone bought late last year for 400 k with a BTL mortgage and the property price drops and his potential rent drops then they are in trouble ........
brisan wrote: » ............... However I can see prices dropping over the next couple of years for various reasons ...............
Augeo wrote: » Well hypothetically not all 400k properties that drop to 300k were bought for 400k. Anyone buying property as in investment expecting a certain yield of the purchase price for the duration of the mortgage shouldn't be investing in property IMO. Also anyone expecting the property to wash its face regarding mortgage etc for the mortgage term is also at the wrong game.
brisan wrote: » Yes if rents stay the same But if you want 4% gross yield off a property you have to charge 1600 a month for a 400k property If that property drops to 300k then 1200 will cover the gross yield So if someone buys a similar property for 300k he can rent it out for 1200 My brothers rental drops and maybe the property won’t wash its face regarding mortgage etc Just hypothetical figures
Augeo wrote: » Surely it's the income they generate is key rather than any momentary market value?
brisan wrote: » ........... If my brothers investment properties drop by 100k each then he’s in potential trouble ..........
bluelamp wrote: » Yes I would argue that, but even further - if someone is selling they still wont realise a profit, unless they arent purchasing another house with the proceeds. The house they are buying will have had the same fluctuations. The only people who will profit from high prices are the kids who inherit it after the owner dies - at which point they'll probably (hopefully) be of an age that they dont need the money either way. I can say cheaper housing will benefit most, because it will. We have two choices going further, reduced cost of housing, or massive wage growth. The first option keeps our economy competitive and gives young people the same opportunities their parents had. The second option makes us uncompetitive and an unattractive place to invest - which isn't ideal when we are staring into yet another recession. There are plenty of homeowners with the same opinion as me, it's well and good sitting on "wealth" from inflated house prices, but seeing your kids unable to buy a house, or having to buy one far away from their hometown can change minds quickly.
TheSheriff wrote: » Emm ok, I've been posting about trying to buy a house in the dublin region for quite some time now. I've also been very open that I'm a FTB and would welcome price falls, but to date haven't seen any in the area we are looking (pre covid or post covid). I think price falls will come, but I cannot stick around to wait for a drop any longer. ! I just don't agree that we are heading back to 2012. There are plenty of people with plenty of money still out there.
TheSheriff wrote: » We are really surprised there's still so much momentum in the 500k semi d range. Really thought we'd see a dip in demand by now, but viewed one last sat for 480k, bidding immediately up to 505k by this morning. Still in the game currently, but will likely bow out as it's going above what we'd like to pay for it.
PropQueries wrote: » No agenda. Just looking at the facts. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. But If you believe that net migration will remain at 2018 levels indefinitely, that all that excess housing supply built during the Celtic tiger years has been bought up and is currently lived in when the population of 0-34 year olds actually decreased by C. 72,000 between 2011 and 2016, then maybe your right. Although I would disagree.
PropQueries wrote: » Nonsense. You just gave out to me for attempting to drive down prices. If you were truly in the middle of bidding for a house you would be supporting my viewpoint which you state is to drive down the market (it’s not by the way. I’m more interested in the supply/demand dynamics). You only support attempts to drive up the market after you buy. So you’re obviously not in the middle of buying.
schmittel wrote: » Yes, partly. Also worth remembering that oversupply problems are easily remedied by falling prices. Might well be too many €500k 1 bed apartments being built. The market will decide that. If the market decides that there are too many €500k 1 bed apartments and not enough €100k 1 bed apartments, pretty soon those €500k apartments become €100k apartments. Same holds true for €500k 3 bed semi ds.
Cyrus wrote: » What we have seen over the past few weeks is propqueries abandoning his original cover story that he or she had no agenda and was just interested in the market . The poster has a very clear agenda and repeats the same posts multiple times both here and on the property pin . To what end I’m not sure .
Hubertj wrote: » Yes now I remember you said before - too many houses but not enough apartments etc. Some are building the wrong types of apartments too €500k for a 1 bed.....
Geuze wrote: » A cash buyer is somebody with all of the house price in cash.
PropQueries wrote: » Number of vacant homes in England is 216,000 and they have over ten times our population. Link to guardian article here: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/11/empty-homes-england-rises-property The over supply problem from the Celtic tiger years hasn’t gone away you know Basically, the future of the housing market depends on when the investment funds who own many of these vacant homes in Ireland decide to pull the trigger. And I believe it will be sooner rather than later.
schmittel wrote: » What I mean is that is in the past whenever I have posted that one of the reasons I think property will fall in the near term is that the problems are as bad, if not worse, than the last time. This is generally met with posters saying I am wrong because the big problem last time was a massive oversupply, and that is not the case this time. Ronan Lyons' graph says that this is not the case as far as Dublin is concerned. But you are right in as far as I don't recall anybody arguing there were ghost estates in Dublin. But Dublin prices crashed nonetheless. Lyons' data does nothing to dissuade me from my long term oversupply belief. I have posted numerous times that I think (for various reasons that I have spelt out in detail) if we build 30k houses a year for the next decade we will cause a massive oversupply problem. Some sources have even talked of 50k+ a year. And every time I post it people say that's nonsense here look at this data - eg Ronan Lyons and his houses built since the war - or nonsense just look at the market right now. But my argument is forward looking, so how many houses we have built since the war or what the market is doing right now, today, is not a credible argument against my theory. Indeed, these responses only serve to reinforce my belief, that by not looking forward people are clamouring to build large quantities of houses to solve what is a temporary problem. Longer term we will end up with too many of the wrong type houses.
Hubertj wrote: » What do you mean? There wasn’t an oversupply in Dublin last crash but there is this time? Did people argue there was oversupply in Dublin? I thought “ghost estates” were mainly away from cities and larger towns and that’s why they were never finished?
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