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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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Cyrus

What we have seen over the past few weeks is propqueries abandoning his original cover story that he or she had no agenda and was just interested in the market .

The poster has a very clear agenda and repeats the same posts multiple times both here and on the property pin .

To what end I’m not sure .

rks

Geuze wrote: »

A cash buyer is somebody with all of the house price in cash.

Thats what I thought. Other than investors who walks around with over 400k in cash buying apartments?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes now I remember you said before - too many houses but not enough apartments etc. Some are building the wrong types of apartments too €500k for a 1 bed.....

Yes, partly. Also worth remembering that oversupply problems are easily remedied by falling prices. Might well be too many €500k 1 bed apartments being built. The market will decide that.

If the market decides that there are too many €500k 1 bed apartments and not enough €100k 1 bed apartments, pretty soon those €500k apartments become €100k apartments.

Same holds true for €500k 3 bed semi ds.

TheSheriff

Cyrus wrote: »

What we have seen over the past few weeks is propqueries abandoning his original cover story that he or she had no agenda and was just interested in the market .

The poster has a very clear agenda and repeats the same posts multiple times both here and on the property pin .

To what end I’m not sure .

Endless threads started on the property pin by that poster.

All quoting an 'interesting' article they just came across, many stating they just came across it, that they have no interest really, but here's a link.

'Maybe' it means the market is crashing, 'maybe' we have over supply. House prices are back at 2014 levels.....

The posts here are duplicates over on the property pin.

It's mad really, someone with no interest posting extensively on multiple sites.

What's laughable is that there's possibly a consideration anything said on these threads actually has any real world influence.

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, partly. Also worth remembering that oversupply problems are easily remedied by falling prices. Might well be too many €500k 1 bed apartments being built. The market will decide that.

If the market decides that there are too many €500k 1 bed apartments and not enough €100k 1 bed apartments, pretty soon those €500k apartments become €100k apartments.

Same holds true for €500k 3 bed semi ds.

We are really surprised there's still so much momentum in the 500k semi d range.

Really thought we'd see a dip in demand by now, but viewed one last sat for 480k, bidding immediately up to 505k by this morning. Still in the game currently, but will likely bow out as it's going above what we'd like to pay for it.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

What we have seen over the past few weeks is propqueries abandoning his original cover story that he or she had no agenda and was just interested in the market .

The poster has a very clear agenda and repeats the same posts multiple times both here and on the property pin .

To what end I’m not sure .

No agenda. Just looking at the facts. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. But If you believe that net migration will remain at 2018 levels indefinitely, that all that excess housing supply built during the Celtic tiger years has been bought up and is currently lived in when the population of 0-34 year olds actually decreased by C. 72,000 between 2011 and 2016, then maybe your right.

Although I would disagree.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, partly. Also worth remembering that oversupply problems are easily remedied by falling prices. Might well be too many €500k 1 bed apartments being built. The market will decide that.

If the market decides that there are too many €500k 1 bed apartments and not enough €100k 1 bed apartments, pretty soon those €500k apartments become €100k apartments.

Same holds true for €500k 3 bed semi ds.

What I mean is was there ever any demand for €500k 1 beds? What genius thought that was a goer?

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are really surprised there's still so much momentum in the 500k semi d range.

Really thought we'd see a dip in demand by now, but viewed one last sat for 480k, bidding immediately up to 505k by this morning. Still in the game currently, but will likely bow out as it's going above what we'd like to pay for it.

Nonsense. You just gave out to me for attempting to drive down prices. If you were truly in the middle of bidding for a house you would be supporting my viewpoint which you state is to drive down the market (it’s not by the way. I’m more interested in the supply/demand dynamics). You only support attempts to drive up the market after you buy.

So you’re obviously not in the middle of buying.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Nonsense. You just gave out to me for attempting to drive down prices. If you were truly in the middle of bidding for a house you would be supporting my viewpoint which you state is to drive down the market (it’s not by the way. I’m more interested in the supply/demand dynamics). You only support attempts to drive up the market after you buy.

So you’re obviously not in the middle of buying.

Emm ok, I've been posting about trying to buy a house in the dublin region for quite some time now.

I've also been very open that I'm a FTB and would welcome price falls, but to date haven't seen any in the area we are looking (pre covid or post covid).

I think price falls will come, but I cannot stick around to wait for a drop any longer. ! I just don't agree that we are heading back to 2012.

There are plenty of people with plenty of money still out there.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

No agenda. Just looking at the facts. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. But If you believe that net migration will remain at 2018 levels indefinitely, that all that excess housing supply built during the Celtic tiger years has been bought up and is currently lived in when the population of 0-34 year olds actually decreased by C. 72,000 between 2011 and 2016, then maybe your right.

Although I would disagree.

I’m right about what ?

Browney7

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are really surprised there's still so much momentum in the 500k semi d range.

Really thought we'd see a dip in demand by now, but viewed one last sat for 480k, bidding immediately up to 505k by this morning. Still in the game currently, but will likely bow out as it's going above what we'd like to pay for it.

How do these prices compare to sales in the past 12 to 24 months in the area do you know?

Balluba

TheSheriff wrote: »

Emm ok, I've been posting about trying to buy a house in the dublin region for quite some time now.

I've also been very open that I'm a FTB and would welcome price falls, but to date haven't seen any in the area we are looking (pre covid or post covid).

I think price falls will come, but I cannot stick around to wait for a drop any longer. ! I just don't agree that we are heading back to 2012.

There are plenty of people with plenty of money still out there.

Sheriff do you think that those ‘people‘ have cash or are they raising mortgages?

brisan

bluelamp wrote: »

Yes I would argue that, but even further - if someone is selling they still wont realise a profit, unless they arent purchasing another house with the proceeds. The house they are buying will have had the same fluctuations.

The only people who will profit from high prices are the kids who inherit it after the owner dies - at which point they'll probably (hopefully) be of an age that they dont need the money either way.

I can say cheaper housing will benefit most, because it will. We have two choices going further, reduced cost of housing, or massive wage growth.

The first option keeps our economy competitive and gives young people the same opportunities their parents had.

The second option makes us uncompetitive and an unattractive place to invest - which isn't ideal when we are staring into yet another recession.

There are plenty of homeowners with the same opinion as me, it's well and good sitting on "wealth" from inflated house prices, but seeing your kids unable to buy a house, or having to buy one far away from their hometown can change minds quickly.

Agreed
If my house drops in value by 100k it doesn’t make a blind bit of difference to me
If my brothers investment properties drop by 100k each then he’s in potential trouble
High house prices only suit those with investment properties

[Deleted User]

brisan wrote: »

...........
If my brothers investment properties drop by 100k each then he’s in potential trouble ..........

Surely it's the income they generate is key rather than any momentary market value?

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

Surely it's the income they generate is key rather than any momentary market value?

Yes if rents stay the same
But if you want 4% gross yield off a property you have to charge 1600 a month for a 400k property
If that property drops to 300k then 1200 will cover the gross yield
So if someone buys a similar property for 300k he can rent it out for 1200
My brothers rental drops and maybe the property won’t wash its face regarding mortgage etc
Just hypothetical figures

[Deleted User]

brisan wrote: »

Yes if rents stay the same
But if you want 4% gross yield off a property you have to charge 1600 a month for a 400k property
If that property drops to 300k then 1200 will cover the gross yield
So if someone buys a similar property for 300k he can rent it out for 1200
My brothers rental drops and maybe the property won’t wash its face regarding mortgage etc
Just hypothetical figures

Well hypothetically not all 400k properties that drop to 300k were bought for 400k.
Anyone buying property as in investment expecting a certain yield of the purchase price for the duration of the mortgage shouldn't be investing in property IMO. Also anyone expecting the property to wash its face regarding mortgage etc for the mortgage term is also at the wrong game.

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

Well hypothetically not all 400k properties that drop to 300k were bought for 400k.
Anyone buying property as in investment expecting a certain yield of the purchase price for the duration of the mortgage shouldn't be investing in property IMO. Also anyone expecting the property to wash its face regarding mortgage etc for the mortgage term is also at the wrong game.

As I said it’s hypothetical
If my brother or anyone bought late last year for 400 k with a BTL mortgage and the property price drops and his potential rent drops then they are in trouble
As I said it does not make a blind bit of difference to me as at 60 and retiring soon I’m a couple of years out of the property game
I’ve one family home now and the price of it is inconsequential
A price drop may suit my kids if they wish to trade up but the 2 out of 3 that may will not be in a position to do so for a few years
However I can see prices dropping over the next couple of years for various reasons
Covid 19 and the changes to society it has brought( WFH , Lockdowns, retail hospitality, tourism education ) and will continue to bring
A major recession coming on stream further fuelled by Brexit
A world wide recession of varying lengths and depths with our nearest neighbour and biggest trading partner being hardest hit
Property being already overpriced and out of reach of a good percentage of our young people
Just my thoughts and I cannot see any other scenario
By how much and how quick no one knows
5-40% over 6-36 months and anything in between

[Deleted User]

brisan wrote: »

As I said it’s hypothetical
If my brother or anyone bought late last year for 400 k with a BTL mortgage and the property price drops and his potential rent drops then they are in trouble ........

That would depend on many other variables ......... it might just mean he has less ROI and he can still pay his mortgage from other earnings/resources.
Like, are you actually speaking hypothetically or are you on about your stretched brother........... that's rhetorical btw.

brisan wrote: »

...............
However I can see prices dropping over the next couple of years for various reasons ...............

I agree 100% that house prices are very likely to fall......... and many owner occupiers will be in trouble along with investors if and when they do as house prices don't fall in isolation to the rest of the economy.

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

That would depend on many other variables ......... it might just mean he has less ROI and he can still pay his mortgage from other earnings/resources.
Like, are you actually speaking hypothetically or are you on about your stretched brother........... that's rhetorical btw.

Brothers plural
The three of us used to buy renovate and flip houses for over 20 years doing a large part of the work ourselves
We had a couple of rentals as well
My wife and I had a couple of rentals as well but sold up to allow her buy a business property
They still have a couple of rentals and flip a property when they can ( mainly ex corporation ) but they reckon value is hard to find the last year or so
As they are both mid 50s I think they are slowly getting out because it’s hard physical work if you’re doing a lot of the work yourself
Ones a plumber , one a carpenter but they would do a lot of the donkey work

fliball123

Sheeps wrote: »

Almost every survey shows that people would happily pay more tax for better public services. In particular housing. O'Broin is a large part of the reason Sinn Féin did so well in the last election. An increase on the tax you'd pay towards having a proper public housing stock is nothing on what you're paying in rent to private landlords at the moment. Young people looking into the oblivion of the current housing and rental market can see that very clearly.

balls to that I think we pay way to much tax as it is and in a lot of areas we get a very poor return. I think it would be better to re-ogranise and cut out the fat that is already there before any more tax is thrown at public services. The HSE has shown that it can adapt when corona came in, dont get me wrong still lots of issues and changes needed but it shouldn't take a crisis for our public services to change and go with more up to date methods of doing things.

MacronvFrugals

I'm in a knot laughing at this article in the Indo,

"The biggest problem with working from home is the feeling of being disconnected from colleagues and clients. We usually rely on team-spirit to get us through tough times but the pandemic itself makes that difficult."

In the commercial property section

https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/team-spirit-is-needed-to-stay-positive-in-these-tough-times-39557601.html

fliball123

rks wrote: »

I have limited knowledge about property and would love to see prices coming down. However I don't see that happening immediately.

In last 2 months I have tried and been outbid on 5 different properties (apartment and houses) on different locations.

Racecourse Pheonix park - For sale 480k, sale agreed 490k
Smithfield (apartment) - For sale 450k, sale agreed 460k
Kilminham (apartment) - Asking 420k, sale agreed 430k
Kilminham (apartment) - Asking 395k, sale agreed 405k
Citywest (couple of years old house - newish build) - Asking 350k, sale agreed 374k

All of them got sale agreed within couple of weeks being listed. Every one of them sold for above asking. Where's the crash or downturn in prices?

Kilmainham apartments went to cash buyers - more like investment properties.

There has not been one yet it may happen next year but according to both CSO and property price register data and contrary to what some posters state as fact on here prices have yet to drop in any meaningful way

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

That would depend on many other variables ......... it might just mean he has less ROI and he can still pay his mortgage from other earnings/resources.
Like, are you actually speaking hypothetically or are you on about your stretched brother........... that's rhetorical btw.

I agree 100% that house prices are very likely to fall......... and many owner occupiers will be in trouble along with investors if and when they do as house prices don't fall in isolation to the rest of the economy.

Agreed a recession suits no one and only the very rich gain
I read an article a few weeks back where it said Warren Buffet is siting on a pile of cash and is telling his Hathaway investors to do the same
I reckon he sees major price falls in property , stocks and businesses going bust or going cheap
I’ve posted before about commercial property and with WFH and City Centre retail dying any bank holding a large portfolio of commercial mortgages must be sweating at this stage
Who will fill all the new office space and hotel space that’s half built now but will have to be finished.
I can see the planning office being busy with projects that were planned for commercial being changed to residential pretty quickly
People assume WFH will disappear but it won’t
It’s proved it can work and work successfully
It may not be full time WFH but it’s here to stay

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we went from building 7,826 residential units in the four quarters to Q1 2016 to building c. 21,000 units last year. Over the past four years we have also built office buildings, Grangegorman campus, thousands of student accomodation units etc.

It's a fair guess to estimate that the number of construction workers increased dramatically between 2016 and 2019. Given this increase in construction, many of the people working in construction must have been included in the net migration figures.

We can also safely assume the net migration will not be c. 30,000 per annum over the next 5 years given that many immigrants work in the hospitality and construction sectors and even if residential construction increased significantly, this demand can be met from workers previously building student accommodation and offices transfering into building residential.

If net migration falls to zero (entirely possible and may actually turn negative) over the next 5 years, we may have overestimated the projected increase in the population over the next 5 years by c. 150,000 (30,000*5) or if an average of three persons to a house, by c. 50,000 homes.

This doesn't include the 180,000 vacant homes (per Census 2016) or the 90,000 vacant homes (GeoGirectory Survey 2020), take your pick on which one to believe. Many of these vacant homes are owned by investment funds and they're ready to offload them now. Between 2012 and 2016, they bought 90,000 mortgages and €200 billion in property and business loans.

We can also see that the domestic population that would be most interested in renting or buying did not increase meaningfully over the past several years to result in a housing demand/supply problem.

All this combined leads me to believe there is a significant over-supply problem.

Honestly can I ask you if this was the case why are FF and FG not shouting it from the rooftops as according to you there is no problem with a shortage of housing. Thinking about the last election I could be wrong but I believe SF got a shed load of votes due to them spinning the fact that there is a massive shortage of adequate housing (according to you). Do you not think that the FF/FG spin doctors, lawyers, secretaries and every other resource they have would be shouting this fact that you keep posting from the rooftop. I wonder why that is. If FF/FG could prove that there is no housing problem they would either get credit for sorting it or SF would lose ground due to the fact that their budget and strategy was built mainly on the basis of housing for everyone.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

As per below census 2016, there’s no future demand from the domestic population. All projected housing demand is based on their net migration projections and they still didn’t include the 90,000 vacant homes (Geodirectory survey 2020 or 180,000 vacant homes as per census 2016, take your pick) just sitting there waiting to re-enter the market.

They assume they don’t exist, will disappear or the investment funds who own many of them will not allow them to ever re-enter the market.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

The 0 - 34 bracket here might just be going up very very soon as there is lots of commentary about corona baby boom. As history has proven when there is a a recession people have no money to do anything so they just stay in and have sex

and with corona stopping simple things like going outside for months on end I reckon they were probably like rabbits.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-baby-boom-may-be-on-the-cards-according-to-holles-street-1014275.html

https://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-braced-for-post-lockdown-baby-boom-191084

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/a-little-baby-boom-that-s-catching-everyone-out-1.194350

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

The 0 - 34 bracket here might just be going up very very soon as there is lots of commentary about corona baby boom. As history has proven when there is a a recession people have no money to do anything so they just stay in and have sex and with corona stopping simple things like going outside for months on end I reckon they were probably like rabbits.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/covid-baby-boom-may-be-on-the-cards-according-to-holles-street-1014275.html

https://www.irishpost.com/news/ireland-braced-for-post-lockdown-baby-boom-191084

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/a-little-baby-boom-that-s-catching-everyone-out-1.194350

It’ll be 25 years before they hit the property market
Plus contraception is widely available ðŸ˜‚
It’s the pregnancies from the drunken one night stands after coppers that will fall ðŸ˜‚

[Deleted User]

brisan wrote: »

.........
People assume WFH will disappear but it won’t
It’s proved it can work and work successfully
It may not be full time WFH but it’s here to stay

Yes, I'm saying that for the last 5 months ish even though I rarely WFH myself.

Cantstandsya

brisan wrote: »

It’ll be 25 years before they hit the property market
Plus contraception is widely available &#55357;&#56834;
It’s the pregnancies from the drunken one night stands after coppers that will fall &#55357;&#56834;

Not by fliball's logic.

They'll be part of the demand side of the equation as soon as they eye their first Wendy house.

fliball123

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Not by fliball's logic.

They'll be part of the demand side of the equation as soon as they eye their first Wendy house.

Well when a girl gets pregnant and not working and the daddy does a runner she is bumped up to the top of the housing list so there is an impact on the demand side smart a$$. Sure some girls see this as a way to get housed for free

brisan

Just seen KBC fined 18 m for their part in the tracker scandal
Not really going to affect anything just thought I’d share