Who thinks Trump will win?

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I can't believe that video of Trump walking down the ramp is still been thrown around as evidence of anything. LOL

Wait until he whips out the most used tweet I've ever seen on this website!!!

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHa_qwLm3bw

Only one person can beat Donald Trump for the American presidency: Donald Trump himself.

The Democrats lurch to the left seems to have orphaned some of the middle of the road Democrats while at the same time the Bernie Sanders wing of the party is not that enthused with Joe Biden perceiving him as inauthentic and pandering to special interests. The polls may tell one story getting the vote out for a candidate that is not trusted is a different story.

The Democrats are no more a left wing party than the Republicans are. At most they are centrist.

namloc1980 wrote: »

The Democrats are no more a left wing party than the Republicans are. At most they are centrist.

I do agree, for this election the Democrats have positioned themselves further toward the left end of the Overton window and that is not very appealing for the centrists. The DNC itself is fractured, it is controlled by billionaires, and appeals to wealthy college educated progressives and urban welfare populations. President Trump gets votes from what is termed flyover country. There is also class distinction by education level and income which is why that deplorables comment by Clinton likely alienated enough voters to cost her the election. As you can see from county level results the Democrats tend to dominate high population density centres.

This isn't even too difficult to understand, a lot of the positions of the Democrats are quiet extreme.

Trump is the following
Not only a fascist but an incompetent one.
Sexist/Racist/Deplorable

America
Is systematically racist that only Democrats can correct.
Is on the brink of a climate crisis catastrophe that only Democrats can solve.
Is witnessing the rise of white supremacy...in some kind of invisible way that no one can actually see.
Has been held together by RGB.
Needs to be completely reformed

Anywhere Americans are subjected to the above in their culture, which they are thanks to the BLM anarchist movement, they are reacting in a very different way the polls are suggesting, Sports, TV shows, Companies that are shoving these narratives down Americans throats are all getting hammered in ratings/sales....in fact, Law and Order is now are major issue for Americans (basing this on the surge in gun sales), the Democrats are on the wrong side of that by some distance.

This if possible, is even more extreme than the Labour Party manifesto in the UK for the election last December, that didn't work out too well for them, their support collapsed....they didn't see it coming!!!!

[Deleted User]

Silentcorner wrote: »

This isn't even too difficult to understand, a lot of the positions of the Democrats are quiet extreme.

Trump is the following
Not only a fascist but an incompetent one.
Sexist/Racist/Deplorable

America
Is systematically racist that only Democrats can correct.
Is on the brink of a climate crisis catastrophe that only Democrats can solve.
Is witnessing the rise of white supremacy...in some kind of invisible way that no one can actually see.
Has been held together by RGB.
Needs to be completely reformed

Anywhere Americans are subjected to the above in their culture, which they are thanks to the BLM anarchist movement, they are reacting in a very different way the polls are suggesting, Sports, TV shows, Companies that are shoving these narratives down Americans throats are all getting hammered in ratings/sales....in fact, Law and Order is now are major issue for Americans (basing this on the surge in gun sales), the Democrats are on the wrong side of that by some distance.

This if possible, is even more extreme than the Labour Party manifesto in the UK for the election last December, that didn't work out too well for them, their support collapsed....they didn't see it coming!!!!

I've seen Trump contribute to systemic racism and encourage it throughout his presidency. Rise of white supremacy, white supremacists marching on charlottesville, the FBI classify the far right as big a danger as ISIS.

Climate crisis, he actively made one of the first parts of his presidency exiting the Paris Accord. How exactly can you trust a party where a large proportion of its members don't even acknowledge the existence of climate change.

Tell me how

Silentcorner wrote: »

This isn't even too difficult to understand, a lot of the positions of the Democrats are quiet extreme.

Trump is the following
Not only a fascist but an incompetent one. (A view supported by evidence)
Sexist/Racist/Deplorable (A view supported by evidence)

America
Is systematically racist that only Democrats can correct.(Nobody is saying only Democrats can act on this, but they are the only ones suggesting action is needed)
Is on the brink of a climate crisis catastrophe that only Democrats can solve. (Nobody is saying only Democrats can meet the crisis, but they are the only ones suggesting action is needed)
Is witnessing the rise of white supremacy...in some kind of invisible way that no one can actually see. (The FBI can see it)
Has been held together by RGB. (Nobody is saying that)
Needs to be completely reformed (Nobody is saying that, but instead it needs to be reassessed so as to best meet the needs of its electorate for now and in to the future.)

Anywhere Americans are subjected to the above in their culture, which they are thanks to the BLM anarchist movement, they are reacting in a very different way the polls are suggesting, Sports, TV shows, Companies that are shoving these narratives down Americans throats are all getting hammered in ratings/sales....in fact, Law and Order is now are major issue for Americans (basing this on the surge in gun sales), the Democrats are on the wrong side of that by some distance. (Law and Order should indeed be in peoples minds considering all the associates of the President who have been charged, tried, convicted and jailed for crimes and how he has been accuse of so many also)

This if possible, is even more extreme than the Labour Party manifesto in the UK for the election last December, that didn't work out too well for them, their support collapsed....they didn't see it coming!!!!

Points in Bold are my comments.

Timberrrrrrrr

Mic 1972 wrote: »

I can't believe that video of Trump walking down the ramp is still been thrown around as evidence of anything. LOL

Well apparently a man with a stutter stutters and its "proof" he has dementia (according to some). Im just pointing out the hypocrisy of posters who say Biden looks fragile or has no energy yet never seem to see this in their dear leaders actions.

Silentcorner wrote: »

This isn't even too difficult to understand, a lot of the positions of the Democrats are quiet extreme.

Trump is the following
Not only a fascist but an incompetent one.
Sexist/Racist/Deplorable

Those labels have been thrown around carelessly to the extent that are just used to denigrate a persons character. You can make an argument that he is all of those, however, the appeal to many of his supporters is that he is not politically correct and that language fostered by the college educated elites has been abused to silence people whose opinions they disagree with.

Silentcorner wrote: »

America
Is systematically racist that only Democrats can correct.
Is on the brink of a climate crisis catastrophe that only Democrats can solve.
Is witnessing the rise of white supremacy...in some kind of invisible way that no one can actually see.
Has been held together by RGB.
Needs to be completely reformed

These are only relevant to the twittersphere and AI engines used to amplify conflict on social media. They are just background noise. You should also realise that journalists are less trusted than police in the United States and congress critters rank lower than car salesmen.

Most American voters concerns revolve around economy, healthcare and security and a combination of some other peripheral issues like abortion and gun rights and environment, it is those they decide on. The problem for the Biden campaign is he is not consistent in his messaging, he tells voters in Pennsylvania that he won't ban fracking and outside the state - well?. Pennsylvania is a swing state and they like the jobs, an industry and tax receipts that come from fracking.

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

So you'd be fine with someone that was 4ft 8" saying they were "nearly" 6ft :pac:

A 5th is quite a chunk my friend.

Look, you were bs'ing about Obama's job numbers and you got caught.

Let's do the numbers again because you keep missing them unfortunately. You might point out the "exceptional" part here for Trumpy. Also just 46k manufacturing jobs created under Trump in 2019 long before Covid. That's pretty exceptional in fairness, exceptionally crap

The lowest months manufacturing numbers under Obama was February 2010 at 11,453k and when he left office it was at 12,356k an increase of 903k or 7.9%.

Before Covid the lowest months manufacturing numbers under Trump was February 2010 at 12,400k and up to Covid in February it was at 12,852k an increase of 452k or 3.6%. Better performance by Obama.

Now let's go from inauguration to date or to when Obama left office.

January 2010 at 12,561k and when he left office it was at 12,356k a decrease of 205k or 1.6%. Obama came in during the middle of the financial crisis - George Bush lost 1.5m manufacturing jobs during 2007 and 2008 and that decline continued in 2009 - perhaps you don't remember but there was a massive global recession from 2007-2009.

Now let's look at Trump from inauguration to date: 12,369k job in Jan 2017 to 12,132k today - a decline of 237k or 1.9%. Trump worse here too.

namloc1980 wrote: »

Let's do the numbers again because you keep missing them unfortunately. You might point out the "exceptional" part here for Trumpy. Also just 46k manufacturing jobs created under Trump in 2019 long before Covid. That's pretty exceptional in fairness, exceptionally crap

You may well be right, I don't know your data sources. Manufacturing is returning or rather evolving in the United States and worldwide, the processes have changed as technology has advanced. As a consequence the manufacturing jobs that are available are for skilled, tech heavy manufacturing jobs. The money is in the likes of programming, instrumentation technology, quality assurance, process control, regulatory compliance and other technical jobs.

In that world the options for American high school leavers with no special skills are another matter also those that have gone to college and majored in the various courses that don't lead to high paying jobs. The 'resentment studies' majors end up in HR departments, which is why we experience the prevalence of 'unconscious bias' courses and other wastes of resources like diversity officers.

What Trump is not saying is that many of the products and factories that provided jobs years ago for his base are gone, they have been replaced by new products and new production technology with high degrees of automation.

Outlaw Pete

namloc1980 wrote: »

Let's do the numbers again because you keep missing them unfortunately. You might point out the "exceptional" part here for Trumpy. Also just 46k manufacturing jobs created under Trump in 2019 long before Covid. That's pretty exceptional in fairness, exceptionally crap

More sleight of hand from you. Tut tut.

You mention manufacturing jobs in 2019 but yet you failed to mention the number in 2018, why? Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that Trump created 264,000 new manufacturing jobs that year now would it? The best year since 1988!! 327,000 new jobs were created over one 12-month stretch and that was the best in 23 years.

I'd say that was exceptional in anyone's book. Well, anyone's book bar the anti-Trumpers who see wrong in everything Trump does and says.

U.S. enjoys best manufacturing jobs growth of the last 30 years

Some food for thought: the U.S. had as many people working in the manufacturing sector in December as it did 69 years ago.

The 32,000 positions added in December took the total number of positions in manufacturing to 12.84 million. In November 1949, there were 12.88 million manufacturing workers, at the end of a sharp recession.

Last year, 264,000 new manufacturing jobs were added, representing the highest number of new workers since 1988. As a percent of the total workforce, manufacturing rose for the first time since 1984.

Manufacturing jobs growing at fastest rate in 23 years

Employers created 37,000 new manufacturing jobs in July, the Labor Department said Friday, the strongest gain since December and the third straight month in which factory job growth accelerated.

The July numbers may have been nudged upward a bit by vagaries in the data due to annual auto plant shutdowns, but the trend has been firm for the past year and a half. The 327,000 new jobs over the last year represent the best 12-month stretch in 23 years.

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

More sleight of hand from you. Tut tut.

You mention manufacturing jobs in 2019 but yet you failed to mention the number in 2018, why? Wouldn't have anything to do with the fact that Trump created 264,000 new manufacturing jobs that year now would it? The best year since 1988!! 327,000 new jobs were created over one 12-month stretch and that was the best in 23 years.

I'd say that was exceptional in anyone's book. Well, anyone's book bar the anti-Trumpers who see wrong in everything Trump does and says.

Sure but 2019 was a shocker do you not think? Why was that, it couldn't possibly be his disastrous trade war that ended up hurting jobs in the US could it? After doing well in 2018 he threw it all away with manufacturing job losses and factories closing all across the rust belt in 2019 and into 2020. Have a read: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/09/22/trumps-manufacturing-record-stinks-newest-data-shows/

How Europe Fell Out of Love With China

namloc1980 wrote: »

Sure but 2019 was a shocker do you not think? Why was that, it couldn't possibly be his disastrous trade war that ended up hurting jobs in the US could it? After doing well in 2018 he threw it all away with manufacturing job losses and factories closing all across the rust belt in 2019 and into 2020. Have a read: https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/09/22/trumps-manufacturing-record-stinks-newest-data-shows/

There is another game in play from the US and EU which is going to take a decade to play out irrespective of who the next US president is.

The Real Strategic End Game in Decoupling From China

The trade between the United States and the European Union (EU) makes all other trade volumes pale in comparison — including trade with China. Transatlantic trade levels (in goods and services) totaled more than $1.3 trillion. This dwarfs by far trade activity between the United States and China ($636 billion) and between EU and China ($718 billion). Counting exports and imports of goods and services, the U.S.-EU bilateral trade is as big as the sum of U.S.-China and EU-China activities.

Meanwhile, the United States and EU have in common huge trade deficits with China. These deficits, $307 billion for the U.S., and $146 billion for the EU are not healthy. When it comes to transatlantic trade, however, we have seen sustainable growth. Volumes have more than doubled since 2000 ($566 billion) and grown by over 50 percent since 2009 ($834 billion). In 2019, there was a positive trade balance for Europe on products that amounted to $178 billion, and a positive American trade balance on services of $60 billion.

source

[Deleted User]

Jesus.. YouTube just suggested yer one Harris doing an event from Michigan.. said I'd flick on for a minute..looked like it was in an empty car park.. like, I've seen bad local bands that had more support..

Danno

Irish Corporation Tax takes under Obama ranged from ~€4bln to ~€7.5bln, Under Trump it has gone from ~€8bln to ~€11bln. Clearly Trumps business policies are better for Ireland.
Also, despite having added Carbon Taxes, Irish fuel prices have fallen since Trump came to power, all thanks to his policy of keeping the US out of stupid wars.

From an Irish perspective, we should be glad to have Trump in power and heres hoping for another 4 years.

Danno wrote: »

Irish Corporation Tax takes under Obama ranged from ~€3bln to ~€7.5bln, Under Trump it has gone from ~€8bln to ~€11bln. Clearly Trumps business policies are better for Ireland.
Also, despite having added Carbon Taxes, Irish fuel prices have fallen since Trump came to power, all thanks to his policy of keeping the US out of stupid wars.

From an Irish perspective, we should be glad to have Trump in power and heres hoping for another 4 years.

Do you have a source for that corporate tax piece?

Fuel prices have declined since March this year, when it was c.€1.45 for a litre of petrol, due to weakened global demand for oil. I'll give you one guess as to why that happened?!

Danno

namloc1980 wrote: »

Do you have a source for that corporate tax piece?

Fuel prices have declined since March this year, when it was c.€1.45 for a litre of petrol, due to weakened global demand for oil. I'll give you one guess as to why that happened?!

CORPORATION TAXES:

https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REVIRL up to 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy-budget/irish-corporate-tax-receipts-hit-fresh-high-in-2019-idUSKBN1Z21OA 2019 figure.

FUEL PRICES:

https://cheapestoil.ie/articles/trend

Set the chart for 11 years and click update. Don't forget to factor all the carbon taxes have been added, especially in the last few years. Home heating oil and diesel prices follow very similar trends.

Hope this helps.

Danno wrote: »

CORPORATION TAXES:

https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=REVIRL up to 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ireland-economy-budget/irish-corporate-tax-receipts-hit-fresh-high-in-2019-idUSKBN1Z21OA 2019 figure.

FUEL PRICES:

https://cheapestoil.ie/articles/trend

Set the chart for 11 years and click update. Don't forget to factor all the carbon taxes have been added, especially in the last few years. Home heating oil and diesel prices follow very similar trends.

Hope this helps.

The increase is driven by increased profit but also the onshoring of profits made elsewhere by companies to Ireland to take advantage of our low corporate tax rate. What evidence do you have that this is due to Trump and not to do with profits being driven through Ireland and our low CT rate? US corporate profits have remained pretty flat over the last 6 or 7 years until they fell off a cliff the last couple of quarters - I wonder why?

fredgraph.png?g=w4l2

Why 11 years? Was Trump president 11 years ago. News to me. If you set it to when Trump came into office in 2017 the price actually steadily rises over that time until March this year when it collapsed.....any guesses what happened in March??

85603

Uncertain.

I'm very late to the thread, but has anyone mentioned the guy who was on valutainment - this expert guy who predicted the last 4 or 5 wins publicly, as far as I remember.

He has it down as a Biden win. So in the absense of other in-depth knowledge I'm going to side with that guy, he was very pragmatic about it, and stressed this was his professional opinion, and that he had been lambasted four years ago when he predicted the trump win.

Initially I was concerned by Biden's mental health, but not as much lately, though I remain unconvinced.
This is because on reflection I had only seen his out-take reel, thats all that I ever really came across in the media previously, but I saw him make more cogent, professional displays more recently.

(Initial impression was that ol' granpa joe had transcended our little world)

And that made me wonder about how I'd appear, or how any of us would appear, if you only put our blooper reels out. (The padded van would be outside.)

So basically maybe he's not losing it quite as much as it previously seemed. I'll keep a check on that one.

Whoever wins, it aint going to be pretty. Crazy that its gotten to this, such madness and infantile shyte from both 'sides'.

I'd choose John Major for u.s. pres if it was up to me. Please god let politics get boring again.

Outlaw Pete

namloc1980 wrote: »

Sure but 2019 was a shocker do you not think? Why was that, it couldn't possibly be his disastrous trade war that ended up hurting jobs in the US could it?

That's the nature of trade wars, things often get worse before they get better.

After doing well in 2018 he threw it all away with manufacturing job losses and factories closing all across the rust belt in 2019 and into 2020.

Half truths and opportunistic agenda soaked pessimism, little else. Lots to be positive about but at least you concede he did well in 2018, that's something.

bobbyy gee

Trump tax fraud

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/21/nyregion/donald-trump-taxes-cyrus-vance.html

Carfacemandog

Silentcorner wrote: »

They have Florida to go to Harris/Biden....a state they both visited last week...and had a disaster....that's going to Harris/Biden? Has Bloomberg already spent the €100 million he promised to spend?

I'll tell you something though...The Amish vote is going to Trump!!!

I don't care what any poll tells me...

He might be losing heavily according to the polls but he has the most diverse, geographically spread, enthusiastic, mobilized, passionate support of any losing candidate I've ever seen!!!!

I'm not sure what disaster you're referring to, how did it compare to Florida being only behind Louisiana with the most covid cases in the US, at a rate that would have them only behind Qatar, Bahrain, Aruba and French Guiana for the most per capita cases in the world, as well as a death rate that would land them above all but 9 nations globally? I mean it would want to be some disaster to top that in a state Trump won by 1.2% in 2016, so I'm all ears.

There's no point taking your final paragraph seriously.

Carfacemandog

DangerScouse wrote: »

Nobody believes the polls. Trump's polling numbers where worse 4 years ago and he won at a canter.

The democrats had one job and that was to put someone forward that could create a buzz among undecided voters to sway things their way and they put up a guy with the personality of a fence post and the energy of a brick.

Can you point to Trump polling worse for the 2016 election vs the 2020 one? Everything I have seen shows a wider gap this time around than then, and more importantly - with far less undecideds.

Biden's not great, no doubts there. But there's no comparison between him and Trump, mainly because Trump has shown himself to be an historically awful leader over the last 4 years to the point that he is mobilising people to vote for Joe more than Biden himself ever could.

Wanderer78

Carfacemandog wrote:

Biden's not great, no doubts there. But there's no comparison between him and Trump, mainly because Trump has shown himself to be an historically awful leader over the last 4 years to the point that he is mobilising people to vote for Joe more than Biden himself ever could.

....including some republicans!

Ardillaun

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

Only one person can beat Donald Trump for the American presidency: Donald Trump himself. The Democrats lurch to the left seems to have orphaned some of the middle of the road Democrats while at the same time the Bernie Sanders wing of the party is not that enthused with Joe Biden perceiving him as inauthentic and pandering to special interests. The polls may tell one story getting the vote out for a candidate that is not trusted is a different story.

Nobody is crazy about Biden but Trump is uniting Democrats. His Faustian bargain with the Christian Right - you couldn’t make it up - is about to deliver an overwhelming right-wing majority on the Supreme Court which will transform America on health care, abortion, the environment, campaign contributions, voter suppression, climate change and workers’ rights to mention a few. Dems must put their differences aside and decisively defeat this dangerous sociopath, because if Trump can make the election close, his Supreme Court friends may help him over the line.

Wanderer78

Ardillaun wrote:

Nobody is crazy about Biden but Trump is uniting Democrats. His Faustian bargain with the Christian Right - you couldnâ€™t make it up - is about to deliver an overwhelming right-wing majority on the Supreme Court which will transform America on health care, abortion, the environment, campaign contributions, voter suppression, climate change and workersâ€™ rights to mention a few. Dems must put their differences aside and decisively defeat this dangerous sociopath, because if Trump can make the election close, his Supreme Court friends may help him over the line.

Not 100% sure he's a sociopath, but definitely a cluster b

Carfacemandog wrote: »

I'm not sure what disaster you're referring to, how did it compare to Florida being only behind Louisiana with the most covid cases in the US, at a rate that would have them only behind Qatar, Bahrain, Aruba and French Guiana for the most per capita cases in the world, as well as a death rate that would land them above all but 9 nations globally? I mean it would want to be some disaster to top that in a state Trump won by 1.2% in 2016, so I'm all ears.

There's no point taking your final paragraph seriously.

Well, it's very simple.

Why would Bloomberg commit to spending €100,000,000 in Florida to get Harris/Biden elected? It's not the actions of a party that is confident of it's supposed lead in the polls...now, you could easily dismiss that point and I'd have no problem with that...

Now both of them (Harris/Biden) didn't manage to get more than a car load of supporters to turn out for them during their time in Florida, now you could easily dismiss that point too because there is nothing scientific in that!!!

We also can see that there is massive public support for Trump in Florida all up and down the state...now, you can dismiss that because there is nothing scientific in that either.

But we know the real issue back in 2016 was how many polls were wrong regarding the swing states in particular...

You don't want to take my point seriously, but do some digging, you'll see there is expected to be large gains in some very Democrat solid geographical areas' and demographics for Trump.

Billy Mays

hirondelle wrote: »

In terms of protecting the environment, I would say that unpicking the Clean Water Act (progressed by that well-known tree hugger Richard Nixon) allowing mining companies to dump contaminated wash from mining activities into headwaters is an example of Trump choosing commercial interests over and above protecting the environment.

A relevant example to think of here is the West Virginia coalfields (mountaintop removal mining)- the coal is washed near the point of extraction- and the process water returned to the watercourse. Trump is steering the EPA towards reducing the testing requirements by the mining companies. This introduces the potential for lovely flavours of cadmium, arsenic and other contaminants into the drinking water supply of the local populace (on a related note, I checked and 68% of the vote in WV went to Trump). So, Trump went for the industry (and the legacy jobs in a doomed industry) by reducing the requirement to test the water and publish the results instead of protecting the health of all the people relying on these water supplies.

All this dressed up as getting rid of "unnecessary" regulation by nasty "Big Government". Tell me Pete, are you personally in favour of a public water supply that is tested to ensure that human health is protected, or do you think the coal industry should be allowed to pollute it with impunity? Would you be happy with having water from these sources as your primary source of drinking water?

And a plea- if you do reply please don't "lol", it never, ever adds to the debate on adult fora.

Disappointing that this question was ignored