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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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MacronvFrugals

We have among the highest in the EU 25-29s living with parents, i'm not sure these are things FF/FG can fix before the next election look at broadband and the children's hospital -

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/jump-in-young-irish-adults-living-with-parents-among-highest-in-eu-1.4177848

WhenPigsCry

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its very very relevant, although here even macro economics isnt relevant, the housing market exists in a vaccum devoid of any other externalities some would have you believe.

18-34s are solely voting Sinn Fein en masse because of the housing market, its something a few of us here predicted, this poll provides some proof to that prediction.

It's not "very very relevant." First, a general election might be as far away as 2025. Second, the polls might change between now and the next GE. Third, the results in the GE might not reflect the polls, especially as younger voters traditionally turnout in smaller numbers than older voters, who skew more conservative. Fourthly, even if SF win the most seats in the next GE, whenever that might be, it would be very unlikely that they'd have an overall majority, and any housing policy they want to implement would be dependant on negotiations with their prospective coalition partners.

The only immediate relevance is that the parties in power will note that they are performing poorly among this demographic, and will want to address that, but they will not want to (a) address it in any way likely to alienate their existing support base, which in the case of FG and FF consists of mostly older more conservative voters who typically own their own homes; or (b) conflicts with existing policy objectives and commitments.

So no, an opinion poll on voting intentions among young people with no general election at hand is not super relevant to the current state of the housing market.

Assetbacked

Balluba wrote: »

Am I right to assume that it will be the over 38’s who will have to pay up for the free houses that Sinn Fein will give to the under 38’s?

Where do you think the money comes from currently to pay the €2k+ per month REIT rents the councils are paying on behalf of tenants?

Balluba

Am I right to assume that it will be the over 38’s who will have to pay up for the free houses that Sinn Fein will give to the under 38’s?

brisan

Assetbacked wrote: »

The 34 year olds will be 38 by the time the next election comes around. It would then be 18-38 year olds looking at SF as their main choice so it is an ever-growing voting demographic. This is, as you say, predominantly down to the housing (rental) crisis and the last 7 years of hyper economic growth. There is a disregard for SF by certain people to do with their past, likely to be of a particular age, but then at the same time a lack of appreciation for the two pronged shafting of the younger generation since '08 via (1) punitive taxes and (2) punitive housing costs. The punitive taxes pay a debt they had no hand in creating as well as paying a swollen pension bill and the punitive housing costs prop up the value of the homes owned by the older generation. I completely understand why they would vote for SF when FF and FG had a hand in (1) and (2).

But the fear of SF seems to be so irrational as they are a centre-left party, not even extreme in policies. This irrational fear, should it seem likely SF will get into the next government, could manifest in a way which impacts the housing market, for example, spooking institutional investors which could mean they offload their BTLs onto individual buyers and stop building; by creating panic among home-owners who try to dump their property for fear of the housing market collapsing and the value of their home collapsing. This is why the opinion polls with SF performing so strongly are of relevance to the housing market.

The good Friday agreement was 22 years ago
Even 34 yr old's were only 12 at the time and have no recollection of the troubles up the north
SF violent history on both sides of the border means little to anyone under 40

Assetbacked

The 34 year olds will be 38 by the time the next election comes around. It would then be 18-38 year olds looking at SF as their main choice so it is an ever-growing voting demographic. This is, as you say, predominantly down to the housing (rental) crisis and the last 7 years of hyper economic growth. There is a disregard for SF by certain people to do with their past, likely to be of a particular age, but then at the same time a lack of appreciation for the two pronged shafting of the younger generation since '08 via (1) punitive taxes and (2) punitive housing costs. The punitive taxes pay a debt they had no hand in creating as well as paying a swollen pension bill and the punitive housing costs prop up the value of the homes owned by the older generation. I completely understand why they would vote for SF when FF and FG had a hand in (1) and (2).

But the fear of SF seems to be so irrational as they are a centre-left party, not even extreme in policies. This irrational fear, should it seem likely SF will get into the next government, could manifest in a way which impacts the housing market, for example, spooking institutional investors which could mean they offload their BTLs onto individual buyers and stop building; by creating panic among home-owners who try to dump their property for fear of the housing market collapsing and the value of their home collapsing. This is why the opinion polls with SF performing so strongly are of relevance to the housing market.

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its very very relevant, although here even macro economics isnt relevant, the housing market exists in a vaccum devoid of any other externalities some would have you believe.

18-34s are solely voting Sinn Fein en masse because of the housing market, its something a few of us here predicted, this poll provides some proof to that prediction.

FFG will have seen the polls and will know what the feeling on the ground is
They have 3 years to make a serious dent in the housing crisis or SF will romp home with the help of PBF and a few left wing parties.
If SF make a fist of fixing the housing crisis ,young people will not give toss if small landlords or REITS get shafted, they would probably cheer
Granted the cost will be kicked down the road for the next Gov to sort out

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

Not sure how a poll is relevant to the housing market.

Its very very relevant, although here even macro economics isnt relevant, the housing market exists in a vaccum devoid of any other externalities some would have you believe.

18-34s are solely voting Sinn Fein en masse because of the housing market, its something a few of us here predicted, this poll provides some proof to that prediction.

Balluba

Pelezico wrote: »

Ah yes...the dream home some people here talk about. I wonder what that is...the dream home.

My dream house will have to be sold to me like Selling Sunset Irish style with my auctioneer wearing Louboutins.
Only then will I know that I have arrived.
(Reference today’s Independent)

Taylor365

Pelezico wrote: »

What is free is not worth having.

That 2 bed 80sqm i saw a friend of a friend get looked pretty attractive!

We are fools.

Pelezico

Taylor365 wrote: »

One that's free! :pac:

What is free is not worth having.

Taylor365

Pelezico wrote: »

Ah yes...the dream home some people here talk about. I wonder what that is...the dream home.

One that's free! :pac:

Pelezico

enricoh wrote: »

If sinn fein are flying in the polls I'd expect the government to keep shoveling money at the foreva home brigade, extend eviction ban etc etc .
The big bad landlord might be in the crosshairs for raising a few quid off also! I doubt their would be any objections from the opposition!

Ah yes...the dream home some people here talk about. I wonder what that is...the dream home.

enricoh

Pelezico wrote: »

Not sure how a poll is relevant to the housing market.

If sinn fein are flying in the polls I'd expect the government to keep shoveling money at the foreva home brigade, extend eviction ban etc etc .
The big bad landlord might be in the crosshairs for raising a few quid off also! I doubt their would be any objections from the opposition!

Here's sinn feins proposals today for the upcoming budget- basically double the social housing spend. They must live in a parallel universe where coronavirus hasn't wrecked the government finances!

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/tenants-with-a-history-of-bad-behaviour-would-not-be-blacklisted-under-sinn-feins-new-housing-plan-39548392.html
The party is also proposing increasing the affordable and social housing budget next year by €1.5bn to €2.8bn. The monthly affordable rent in Dublin for a three-bedroom home would be €700-€900, he said, and less outside the capital.

Pelezico

Not sure how a poll is relevant to the housing market.

Rossvet

Wonder will the Budget have any Affordable Housing scheme?

MacronvFrugals

New B&A poll has Sinn Fein at 50% among 18-34s

FF/FG/GP on 38% all together.

https://twitter.com/politiceir/status/1307700795845103617?s=21

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

Or ring 3 EA and get free valuations

You have to add 30k if your curtains are nicer than your neighbor's.

[Deleted User]

Danny552 wrote: »

You would be crazy to pay that much for those houses, they are horrible looking. would build a lovely home for half that price.

On a site where?

brisan

beauf wrote: »

You basically have to check online the houses that have sold on the same road, see through ads and Google maps which are most similar. You'll find some are better and some are worse. Put yours in the middle.

You also have to allow 20-40k that someone is going to have to hold back for refurbishing.

Then also consider if the property has any added value, size of garden, aspect, location in the road, expansion potential.

Or ring 3 EA and get free valuations

bdmc5

Danny552 wrote: »

You would be crazy to pay that much for those houses, they are horrible looking. would build a lovely home for half that price.

Are you referring the new Terraced 5 bed Glenvagh homes for sale at?

We live close to that development really think they could have a tough time sellling those units. Now they have a beautiful view and access to the gardens and marina when it’s all done but the fact is their terraced with such small back garden at such premium prices it’s such an odd style of home.

Danny552

Smiley11 wrote: »

Not that strict actually. We love Blackrock too. I fully accept that we'll have to compromise on some aspects but there are some things that I really want & will hold out for. I think most people do the same but I'm open to correction.

You would be crazy to pay that much for those houses, they are horrible looking. would build a lovely home for half that price.

Pink11

Smiley11 wrote: »

Have to agree. We had to walk from a bidding war recently & I think it'll take me a while to get over how frenzied it was. I certainly won't be bidding again any time soon! The house was amazing but I'd give a laymans estimate of having to put a minimum of 150k into it to make it what we wanted. I was told last week a friend of a friend had been quoted nearly 220k to renovate it!

We were at 550k & while it still wasn't at its inflated asking price, my husband just asked if I actually wanted to pay that much for a house in that condition &, as much as I adored it, my heart said no. Couldn't justify that spend & even though it will always be the one that got away, I can't see us regretting our decision.

People seem desperate & I can't be a part of this current market so we'll bow out for a few months. The truth is that not one of us on this forum know what way the property market will pan out over the next couple of years. Personally, if the right house comes up when this current frenzy calms, we'll be buying. The value of our home doesn't matter to us as we'll never be moving again.

My uneducated opinion on the market is that it will drop, but not by some of the crazy percentages floating around here! 10 to 15% I'd guess but it will take some time for it to happen. I'm a buyer with no chain so its in my interest for the market to bottom out but I can't see it happening. But again, none of us know.

If you're in no rush then absolutely sit back but keep an eye. That is my attitude. I'm lucky to be in a position that I can buy a home and am very conscious of that especially at the moment.

However, if the right house comes up within my budget, I am firm believer in that it's never the 'exact tight time' to do anything and I'm not waiting around because there is 'talk' of a crash. Like you say, I don't think it'll ever fall to the lows some are predicting. Getting the right home is my priority rather than saving a few bob.

dor843088

Smiley your talking out of your rear end

[Deleted User]

Smiley11 wrote: »

Not that strict actually. We love Blackrock too. I fully accept that we'll have to compromise on some aspects but there are some things that I really want & will hold out for. I think most people do the same but I'm open to correction.

You must have strict criteria if you can't find a suitable property in St Luke's, montenotte or Blackrock with a 600k budget.

Leozord

Assetbacked wrote: »

I was going off news articles for the tech jobs.

https://www.thejournal.ie/airbnb-job-losses-2-5113453-Jun2020/

https://www.consulting.us/news/4776/global-consulting-firm-accenture-is-firing-25000-employees

https://www.businesspost.ie/coronavirus/ida-ireland-contacts-multinationals-over-covid-19-job-losses-806a2f34

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0721/1154572-linkedin-to-cut-960-jobs-globally/

I totally understand your point.

What I see is that those cuts (especially the ones which are at a global scale, like at Accenture or Linkedin) are not a reflection of the whole tech industry. Some of these cuts are COVID-related, some others are re-structuration.

For example, even Oracle saying that they are cutting jobs in Dublin, they got about 50 roles to be filled in Dublin alone. Facebook and Google have about 80 each. Even Airbnb has a few, although it was obvious that they would be impacted big time due to COVID.

Not to mention companies that had to increase their workforce (Zalando, Deliveroo, and Stripe, to name a few) due to the increased shopping activities on the internet.

my apologies for bringing this subject here, I know it is a bit off-topic, will stop now

Pelezico

Balluba wrote: »

Not renting a house in the interim for your family to be together must have been a difficult decision to make.Living as a divided family must be very stressful and you will not be able to buy back that time together. Hope you get settled into a new home before Christmas

She will have money in the bank when lots of others are on struggle street.

Nowhere worse than strughle street. My boy is stroking in the coin too along with his gf. They are probably younger than smiley at 27.

Balluba

Smiley11 wrote: »

Why would we rent? Did you not say at some point that your son is saving for a house & living with you in the interim? We have wonderful parents who are happy to accomodate us & we have no issues other than wanting to live in our own home together. Are we very different to your son? Have a look at Cork rentals on Daft...we'd be lucky to get somewhere suitable for €1500 a month. I'll bank that amount thanks to our parents as you know yourself ��

Not renting a house in the interim for your family to be together must have been a difficult decision to make.Living as a divided family must be very stressful and you will not be able to buy back that time together. Hope you get settled into a new home before Christmas

Smiley11

Augeo wrote: »

They are looking in montenotte & St Luke's and obviously have strict criteria.

Not that strict actually. We love Blackrock too. I fully accept that we'll have to compromise on some aspects but there are some things that I really want & will hold out for. I think most people do the same but I'm open to correction.

Smiley11

Smouse156 wrote: »

Glenveagh have a new build estate in Blackrock with the most expensive houses costing 555k:

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/9135047

Your statement that you cannot buy in Cork for 650k is equivalent to saying that 1 million won’t get you a house in Dublin.

650k would buy a good house in any area of Cork.

We can't find something suitable in the areas we want to live. Yes, we could buy a new house but we don't want to. We looked at a new estate & its not for us.

Of course we could buy a good house in any area of Cork within our budget but not in the areas we want to live. Some beautiful houses have come on the market this year but these were snapped up in bidding wars.

You can make all the sweeping statements you like but I think its fair to say that any persons situation is unique & people are entitled to have their own requirements, no matter what their budget is.

None of this detracts from the fact that the property market in Cork is extremely busy at the moment.