neutral guy wrote: » When rents will 3-5 times cheaper then pay mortgage nobody will take a mortgage Dublin are flooded with property for rent and supply are/will continue rising This just a start The many land lords will avoid bring prices down because they are trapped with maximum of 4 per cent per year price increase But when mortgage holiday will be ends for them they will have choice or reduce rent and get rent to pay mortgage or pay mortgage for house with empty rooms There will be total mess in shared property were half rooms will be empty and land lord will have pay mortgage for full house That is one from example how low paid workers which lost jobs in retail and hospitality will massively affect the property market
thefridge2006 wrote: » Yeah i read it but my point is that they were still operating and providing jobs....How many other companies are in the same position. Even before covid arrived i had wondered how many companies (mainly cafes ) were just holding on. Basically any company that was getting by is a goner i'd imagine
Mic 1972 wrote: » Asking Prices for apartments in city centre are still through the roof. All this time from beginning of Covid asking prices have actually increased
PropQueries wrote: » You're right. Census 2016: c. 180,000 vacant homes. GeoDirectory Q2 2020: c. 90,000 vacant homes. I really don't believe all those c. 90,000 vacant homes are in Co. Leitrim. The whole demand for housing in Ireland is based upon net migration remaining at c. 30,000 per annum indefinitely as per a recent Central Bank report. With the hospitality industry on its knees etc. for the next 4 years and Cairn Homes stating recently they're back at 85% pre-covid building levels, it is most likely supply with significantly exceed demand for the next 5 years at a minimum. I would predict 2011 prices come 2022/2023. Yes, I did say 2011. Everyone can attack at will, but the demand isn't there and the excess supply is. And if anyone truly believes our population is growing naturally at such a rate to meet this excess supply, here is the breakdown of the 173,613 increase in the population in Ireland between 2011 and 2016 as per Census 2016: 0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus) 35 - 64 Years: +143,932 65 - 85+ Years: +102,174
PropQueries wrote: » They can "ask" all they want. They're not renting them and most are vacant and have been for the past 2-3 years. Here's an article in the Sunday Business Post from last February titled: "Unoccupied units at upmarket rental apartment schemes in the capital are compared to boomtime ‘ghost estates’ by critics" Link to Sunday Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c
neutral guy wrote: » I will not even look on house market without 50 per cent price drop.
awec wrote: » Genuine question, did you read the article? Loss making since 2016. 14 million euro debt for a company that hasn't made a bean in 4 years is a bit whacky. This was not a healthy business killed by covid. I would actually be curious how a pharmacy runs up that sort of debt.
Hubertj wrote: » I’d be more inclined to go with CSO population statistics over the next 30 years instead of some lad in the internet making up numbers. Have you also factored into you “analysis” Irish people retiring to Ireland in the current recession? Doubt it. Annual % of accommodation that becomes obsolete?
pearcider wrote: » Does it actually matter? The recession was going to hit Covid or no Covid. The Federal Reserve reversed the taper of their balance sheet in September 2019 as they saw instability in the world banking system. Look it up if you don’t believe me. The property market is like an oil tanker. It does not turn on a dime. It’s a lagging indicator since it’s illiquid. The drops will begin to accelerate now though you can bet on that.
Thespoofer wrote: » At the end of the day, people in this country are obsessed with property ownership, for obvious reasons. We've had posters on here saying where can they invest their money etc etc, as far as I can see it all comes back to property and always will. With cash held in banks losing money, more and more people will begin to realise that money needs to be used. And it will, inevitably, come back down to property.
PropQueries wrote: » Unfortunately no made up figures: Link to Central Bank Net Migration Projections: https://centralbank.ie/news-media/press-releases/press-release-economic-letter-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-10-december-2019#:~:text=Today%20the%20Central%20Bank%20of,Thomas%20Conefrey%20and%20David%20Staunton.&text=Assuming%20a%20lower%20level%20of,per%20annum%20out%20to%202030 Link to GeoDirectory Report: https://www.geodirectory.ie/getattachment/Knowledge-Centre/Reports-Blogs/GeoView-Residential-Buildings-Report-Q2-2020/GeoDirectory-GeoView-Residential-Issue-13-2.pdf?lang=en-IE Link to CSO changes to population of Ireland between 2011 and 2016: https://statbank.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E3006 Link to CSO vacant homes in Ireland: https://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=E1071
PropQueries wrote: » If Glenveagh just reduced their asking prices for apartments in Greystones from €495,00 to €385,000, I doubt there's many Irish emigrants returning to retire in Ireland. Their apartments in Greystones were directly aimed at this market and downsizers. I think you have a misconception about older emigrants. Most don't really want to return to and retire in Ireland. They've made their life in whatever country they emigrated to and they're most likely staying there.
brisan wrote: » And apart from the one property that they live in what will they do with the other properties that they buy ?? I already know your answer and it is one fraught with problems
Smouse156 wrote: » Just noticing a few new builds selling for less than advertised asking price. This one Ashwood Hall, Malahide:https://www.daft.ie/9128444 4 bed semis were asking 785k, now dropped to 775k but latest sale on PPR was for 756k (only sale this year for the semis). The bigger detached houses (Normandy style) asking 1.05M have had 3 sales (all identical and in same row): No 43: Sold 1.05M 6th Feb 2020 No 44: Sold 1.04M 19th June 2020 No 45: Sold 975k 17th July 2020 So it seems developers are definitely dropping prices at the higher end although not advertising the fact (still advertised 1.05M even though they’ll take 975k):https://www.daft.ie/12553124 Has anyone else noticed this?
Hubertj wrote: » What about their population increases between now and 2050? Is it wrong? Or are you just leaving that out as it doesn’t suit whatever point you’re trying to make?
awec wrote: » Of course it matters. A business that was doomed to failure going tits up is a completely different prospect to a viable, healthy business being killed off in the space of 6 months.
jetfiremuck wrote: » I certainly wont trust money in the bank as what happened to GREECE where peoples savings were taken. Without any recourse either. At least with a property you have some capital appreciation and rent opportunity
pearcider wrote: » In the context of property prices it’s still just one more headwind.
JimmyVik wrote: » No money to be made in property now. And with huge risk attached to it now who would invest in it.
Bubbaclaus wrote: » People expecting large 50% drops will be kept waiting I'd say. The situation is very different to a decade ago. People will still need places to live and the level of construction will slow a lot if prices start dropping by 10%. Low supply will mean there will be enough demand for that limited supply to prop prices up and keep the decreases minimal. In our last crisis there was too many houses. People trying to compare just don't seem to be up to speed on the vastly different scenario this time around.
neutral guy wrote: » In 2007 I heard same songs !
