awec wrote: » They were also saying it in 2012.
PropQueries wrote: » I think that's why we need to be very careful. If something doesn't add up, there's generally something else going on and it's generally bad. Cairn Homes said recently their construction levels are back to 85% pre-covid levels so construction (from the big developers anyway) has held up remarkably well.
awec wrote: » Yes, they will. But as soon as people start buying again, they'll rise again. The point is that waiting is not a reduction in demand. His question was what happens if everyone waits six months. Let's imagine that demand for houses grows at roughly 100 buyers per month, supply grows at 50 per month. Let's say the current demand is 500. September: 500 buyers, 300 houses, Price Index 1 October: 0 buyers (everyone waiting), 350 houses, Price index 0.9 Fast forward March: 0 buyers, 600 houses, Price index 0.4 April: 1100 buyers, 650 houses, Price Index = ? In April, the 500 originals see all those lovely houses on daft for 40% of what they were a few months ago and they all go shopping. Add on all those who started looking in the meantime and you suddenly have a surge. Whereas if the 500 are removed permanently, you are looking at 650 houses for 500 buyers. People waiting does not cut it, you need buyers out of the market completely. We have literally seen a version of this play out the past few months. Even with total lockdown, unprecedented unemployment, banks reducing valuations and cutting exemptions etc, price drops were in insignificant figures. ~1%. One percent. They ROSE outside of Dublin by 0.2%.
PropQueries wrote: » That's true. But what happened next. We got the Google's, Facebooks etc., interest rates were knocked down to near zero, the vulture funds came in and bought up all the distressed properties. What's left to get us out of this crisis?
schmittel wrote: » ....And transactions will always take place. Far less for sure in a falling market, but they will be happening, and that mechanism will be setting prices. This is what happened in 2008-2013
schmittel wrote: » We saw a version play out from 2008 - 2013. Prices tanked and then surged. Yes that was largely a consequence of access to credit, but it was also influenced by would be buyers waiting because economic confidence took a big hit. I don’t think this is misunderstood. What I think is misunderstood is that sure you can talk about pent up demand or paused demand or non traditional demand but in order for supply and demand to meet for market price discovery, a transaction has to take place. And transactions will always take place. Far less for sure in a falling market, but they will be happening, and that mechanism will be setting prices. This is what happened in 2008-2013
awec wrote: » It does. But there is some bizarre notion on here that Ireland is absolutely fcuked. Every bad thing that could possibly happen is going to happen, if you think otherwise you're an estate agent. The Brits are coming for us, the EU is coming for us, we'll all be eating the goo out of each others heads.But among all this unprecedented misery people will have no bother buying houses.Every sector of the economy, every corner of the country is absolutely screwed, except for buying houses.
beauf wrote: » The reason for transactions dropping in the crash is entirely different to why they fell in the lock down. They may yet fall due to low demand and recession. But thats not what what has happened ... yet. Everything is still propped by Covid payments and payment deferrals.
schmittel wrote: » That’s exactly the message I am hearing on here too: “sure we’re in a recession and unemployment will increase significantly but house prices won’t drop significantly because we’ll all still be buying houses.” Bizarre notion indeed.
awec wrote: » Please don't confuse me with someone who thinks prices don't drop. My issue is with people who think prices will drop, and it's going to affect everyone except the people waiting to buy houses.
Hubertj wrote: » so will i get the new gaff in rathgar with a lift for €500k in 6 months?
schmittel wrote: » I’m pretty sure I know you are expecting falls. Prices are going to drop precisely because a recession is going to affect a lot of the people who are waiting to buy houses. I think most people get this, except those who are saying pent up demand and tight supply will prop up prices.
TheSheriff wrote: » ... Very few are predicting anything other than drops, albeit most modest.
TheSheriff wrote: » Reading your posts it comes across that you seem to be having this cyclical argument with yourself, moreso than other posters. And looking at your posting history you seem to be having it for years.....
TheSheriff wrote: » There are actually very few people on here who don't think prices will drop. Very few if any to be honest. The push back is against those posters comparing the prices of houses to their chicken fillet rolls, or that Joe average in his average job will scoop up a premium house in Ranleagh with free access to credit during a huge downturn.
TheSheriff wrote: » Very few are predicting anything other than drops, albeit most modest.
awec wrote: » ... I do not buy into the doomsday scenarios. Yet.
thefridge2006 wrote: » https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/examiner-appointed-to-cara-group-of-pharmacies-1.4357698 Examiner appointed to Cara group of pharmacies But i thought it was only low level workers that were affected by this Covid job losses?
awec wrote: » Genuine question, did you read the article? Loss making since 2016. 14 million euro debt for a company that hasn't made a bean in 4 years is a bit whacky. This was not a healthy business killed by covid. I would actually be curious how a pharmacy runs up that sort of debt.
Mic 1972 wrote: » People have cash, don't forget that A lot of buyers are going to come out of the woods if prices start to decline
JimmyVik wrote: » 10%. Come on 10% drop. Thats my magic number
CorkRed93 wrote: » Yeah, good luck with that.
neutral guy wrote: » Good luck selling property in 2021 for 2019 price !
