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Who thinks Trump will win?

whiskeyman

Hope the mods don't mind a new thread, but I just want to see how many of us think Trump will beat Biden in Nov?
I think he just has so much of a populist ground swell and I wouldn't be surprised if 'external' participants get involved in the process.

Do you think he'll get reelected?
Where will that leave America?

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Biker79

RWCNT wrote: »

You're a good man, and thorough.

Friend - you don't say much but when you do its to the point and I salute you for it.

letowski

Danzy wrote: »

There certainly is more enthusiasm in the Trump voter base.

Biden only won because African Americans and Hispanics weren't going to tolerate Sanders and young Democrats didn't turn out in the primaries.

Trump has most of the working class and dividing further, a 40 something Hispanic vote and a larger than usual for a GOP candidate Black vote.

Tacit support by not voting for Biden and staying at home might swing it.

This post isn't really balanced though. There is a reason why Biden is in a commanding lead in all the polls.

Trump is tanking amongst women, particularly in the suburbs, where the pandemic is a predominant issue. Some newly released polls are showing up to 11 points in Biden's favour for this always crucial demographic with 48% of suburban women hold a 'very unfavourable view' of Trump. Remember Trump won this group by 2% (iirc) in 2016. His Law & Order and Low Income Housing scare tactics are having, if anything, a detrimental impact on his campaign.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-poll-suburban-women-will-not-vote-for-trump-301130148.html

Trump has lost huge sections of his older voter base also. The over 65's, one of his most reliable bases, have nearly completely disbanded from him. He won 2016 by 13.3 points but now is trailing Biden by about 4 points in the polling average. His no stance on healthcare is a big issue here.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-trump-might-be-scaring-off-older-voters/

Biden has also made notable gains into the white male working class vote. While he won't win it, if Trump only won WI, MI and PA by less than a point in 2016, you need your most loyal supporter's full support. Biden is struggling with the (Cuban) Hispanic vote for sure in Florida, but there is no evidence that this is holding true in the sun belt, particularly in Arizona where his lead has grown over the past few weeks.

Trump's path to victory is definitely a through low turnout, with Biden struggling to mobilise his supporters. But with so little undecided, and Trump such a polarising figure, all indications from research groups predict a high turnout on the 3rd of November which will be bad news for the incumbent.

[Deleted User]

Biker79 wrote: »

Who are 'they' - is it those deplorables again?

A bit of a nuisance, arent they. They keep pointing out something is wrong, only to be told to pipe down....they don't understand how the world works.

Silenced by midwits...no less ( or aspirational midwits, as the case often is ).

Conspiracy theorists which QAnon are... Your claiming it's a reasonable position. It's not...

Biker79

Deleted User wrote: »

Conspiracy theorists which QAnon are... Your claiming it's a reasonable position. It's not...

Not claiming that at all. But you go ahead and twist my words to steer the narrative in a less ....uncomfortable ....direction for you.

[Deleted User]

Biker79 wrote: »

Not claiming that at all. But you go ahead and twist my words to steer the narrative in a less ....uncomfortable ....direction for you.

You claimed the overarching substance is accurate since the Dems are deviants. Why are they deviants?

Outlaw Pete

Because they push false narratives knowing them to be so. They were happy to see Trump accused of crimes they knew he did not commit and of sexual antics he did not partake in and all because they wanted to be in power. The little power they do have they have abused too of course. The impeachment debacle showed that. Something they milked for all it was worth and hid testimonies from the public as it would show that they didn't even believe what they were saying whilst on CNN/MSNBC. Then they used Trump's early actions to the Coronavirus as way of portraying him as a xenophobe, switching tack when his actions were proved apt to then claim he had called the virus a hoax. George Floyd's death they saw immediately as something they could exploit and that they did. Trump's words were twisted on an almost daily basis so they could suggest this was a result of Trump's America and when the inevitable response from the public to that deliberate race baiting resulted in mayhem and violence, they attacked the Police and appealed for people to donate to funds to help bail on those who were doing anything but peacefully protesting.

ollkiller

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Because they push false narratives knowing them to be so. They were happy to see Trump accused of crimes they knew he did not commit and of sexual antics he did not partake in and all because they wanted to be in power. The little power they do have they have abused too of course. The impeachment debacle showed that. Something they milked for all it was worth and hid testimonies from the public as it would show that they didn't even believe what they were saying whilst on CNN/MSNBC. Then they used Trump's early actions to the Coronavirus as way of portraying him as a xenophobe, switching tack when his actions were proved apt to then claim he had called the virus a hoax. George Floyd's death they saw immediately as something they could exploit and that they did. Trump's words were twisted on an almost daily basis so they could suggest this was a result of Trump's America and when the inevitable response from the public to that deliberate race baiting resulted in mayhem and violence, they attacked the Police and appealed for people to donate to funds to help bail on those who were doing anything but peacefully protesting.

You will really swallow a anything he sells wouldn't ya. Pandemic response pathetic but sure hey.

Here's a question for ya. Do you think he should provide a DNA sample for which he's been asked of in a rape case.

Outlaw Pete

ollkiller wrote: »

You will really swallow a anything he sells wouldn't ya.

None of what I cited has anything to do with what Trump has said.

Pandemic response pathetic but sure hey.

Don't agree.

Here's a question for ya. Do you think he should provide a DNA sample for which he's been asked of in a rape case.

Only if the Police request it.

Pa ElGrande

This is a discussion springing from The Trump identity and fashion statement

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=evVp8kvG_3w

In 2016 the pundits missed the undercurrent of unlikely voters who swept Donald Trump to victory. Axios now asks what the pundits and pollsters are missing this time, then answers their own question: "To his diehard supporters, Trump isn't just a candidate. He's a lifestyle choice, and a vehicle for self-expression, a way to continually flip the middle finger at big media, big business, big government..." -- Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Axios.com, 9/15/20

Whatever it is that generates this zeal for Trump, Joe Biden has it....not so much.

Biker79

Love those guys.

Some lefties have actually called Bill Whittle and Scott Ott far right. No kidding.

They must be Aliens who havent updated their firmware for Planet Earth.

Tell me how

Pa ElGrande wrote: »

This is a discussion springing from The Trump identity and fashion statement

I would be surprised if there is any great percentage of people who vote for Trump this time round, who didn't vote for him in 2016.

Expect that all of the zealots did vote for him then but it was those within the 20% of the electorate who are non-Republican, non-Democrat who choose to go with him last time but given the way he is a showed disdain for every sector of society apart from the 'rich republican' I don't think he is going to pick up marginal voters this time round.

Think about it, how will uber patriotic, military loving people have felt about his behaviour in France in visiting the cemetery, or his comments around that?

Outlaw Pete

And just like that liberals believe all women again.

https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/1306531199679188992

If Biden was a Republican the media might have actually respected Tara Reade.

They're not even trying to hide their double standards at this stage.

Pa ElGrande

Tell me how wrote: »

I would be surprised if there is any great percentage of people who vote for Trump this time round, who didn't vote for him in 2016.

I doubt too many read The Atlantic, the Washington Post or the New York Times every day and they know which way these payers lean politically, they did not pay attention to them in 2016 they won't pay attention to them now. They will tend to refer to their local news sources though.

Most voters will be looking towards the future and here is what is most concerning some of them now, and it has nothing to do with what the mainstream media say.

Whether Trump gets re-elected or not hinges on employment, the virus fading and domestic security. Health care is also a strong vote getter and he won't pick up anything there. The protestors are going to have to think if they want to continue to riot or not because the state attorney generals will be trying to make sedition charges stick and the justice system in Pennsylvania came down hard on the recent rioters so the message is getting out there from the general public is knock this sh!t off.

More than half of businesses that closed during the pandemic won't reopen

New York (CNN Business)About 60% of businesses that have closed during the coronavirus pandemic will never reopen, and restaurants have suffered the most, according to new data from Yelp.

The reviews site has been keeping tabs on closures since March. Businesses can update their status to temporarily or permanently closed on Yelp.

source

That there is a major issue, the small businesses have been devastated and the lockdowns have harmed the lower economic classes who mostly provided physical labour from cutting hair to driving trucks. These are the people who could not earn income from being locked down working from home. No doubt about it this has been a major blow to the lower economic classes and the losses of savings for those who operated their small businesses are probably devastating. There are about 30 million small businesses across the United States, not all of them will be affected, but that is where the margin may turn for either candidate.

Pa ElGrande

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

And just like that liberals believe all women again.

C'mon man

Silentcorner

There is another huge issue for the Democratic Party, the media and celebrity industry will be even more worthless to them this time round than last time....Carli B and Biden could sing a duet of WAP on a stage with an audience full of journalists and celebrities and nobody would care.

They can also throw as much muck as they can between now and November, and even less will care this time....

The media and celebrity industry is in as much trouble as the Democrats, as well as the polling industry!!!

MadYaker

Silentcorner wrote: »

There is another huge issue for the Democratic Party, the media and celebrity industry will be even more worthless to them this time round than last time....Carli B and Biden could sing a duet of WAP on a stage with an audience full of journalists and celebrities and nobody would care.

They can also throw as much muck as they can between now and November, and even less will care this time....

The media and celebrity industry is in as much trouble as the Democrats, as well as the polling industry!!!

So anybody who says things you don't like basically. The amount of bias on display by so many posters in this thread on a daily basis is mind bending. It makes for interesting reading though.

ExMachina1000

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

And just like that liberals believe all women again.

https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/1306531199679188992

If Biden was a Republican the media might have actually respected Tara Reade.

They're not even trying to hide their double standards at this stage.

Also The guardian. Its always the guardian. Biggest toilet paper substitute going

DangerScouse

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

And just like that liberals believe all women again.

https://twitter.com/PaulLewis/status/1306531199679188992

If Biden was a Republican the media might have actually respected Tara Reade.

They're not even trying to hide their double standards at this stage.

Nobody pays attention to these stories at this stage.

If anything making up stuff about Trump will further enhance his base and bring over undecided voters to his side.

The polls mean nothing and most people know it.

Trump is going to win, again.

Tell me how

DangerScouse wrote: »

Nobody pays attention to these stories at this stage.

If anything making up stuff about Trump will further enhance his base and bring over undecided voters to his side.

The polls mean nothing and most people know it.

Trump is going to win, again.

So, you aren't paying attention to the polls, how do you know that most people hold the same view?
How then do you know that Trump is going to win?

What part of the US are you living in which gives you sufficient exposure to people on the ground to support this view or what evidence have you seen to support it?

MadYaker

Tell me how wrote: »

So, you aren't paying attention to the polls, how do you know that most people hold the same view?
How then do you know that Trump is going to win?

What part of the US are you living in which gives you sufficient exposure to people on the ground to support this view or what evidence have you seen to support it?

If these people based their opinions on facts and evidence they wouldn't be supporting trump

Silentcorner

MadYaker wrote: »

So anybody who says things you don't like basically. The amount of bias on display by so many posters in this thread on a daily basis is mind bending. It makes for interesting reading though.

Do you think that Joe Biden giving an interview with Carly B will have a positive impact on the black vote and can you show me a poll that indicates the same?

[Deleted User]

Silentcorner wrote: »

Do you think that Joe Biden giving an interview with Carly B will have a positive impact on the black vote and can you show me a poll that indicates the same?

That's not really related to the point being made though.

[Deleted User]

Silentcorner wrote: »

Do you think that Joe Biden giving an interview with Carly B will have a positive impact on the black vote and can you show me a poll that indicates the same?

I think I lost the last semblance of hope for humanity I had when I saw that interview..

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

That's not really related to the point being made though.

How isn't it....

I said that the media and celebrity class/industry will be even more useless than it was back in 2016...

Joe Biden has given very few interviews but he did give one to Carly B, do you think that has had a positive impact on his vote in the black community as a result...as you know, the black community above all demographics, are by some distance the most loyal to the Democratic Party...

Did Biden get a bump in the polls after the DNC, which was covered and celebrated by US media?

Silentcorner

Deleted User wrote: »

I think I lost the last semblance of hope for humanity I had when I saw that interview..

And they think that any black person who goes public with their disdain for the Democratic party are "right wing grifters"....

blinding

Any Country that allows Antifa / BLM terrorists decide who their President is cannot call itself a Country.

Trump will win. Then all the Anti-American Terrorists should be dealt with One Way or another i.e. Out of America or Out of Commission Permanently ! !

Tell me how

blinding wrote: »

Any Country that allows Antifa / BLM terrorists decide who their President is cannot call itself a Country.

Trump will win. Then all the Anti-American Terrorists should be dealt with One Way or another i.e. Out of America or Out of Commission Permanently ! !

Do you think it would be better for a country to let white supremacists decide who their President should be? And that the President would be a supporter of these people?

Pa ElGrande

MadYaker wrote: »

If these people based their opinions on facts and evidence they wouldn't be supporting trump

If that was the standard they wouldn't be supporting Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton either. Think about it.

[Deleted User]

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Only if the Police request it.

For police to get DNA from a suspect they need a court order. Trump has been given such an order to provide dna evidence. So I'm sure you fully expect him to provide it? Seems particularly important for the law and order president that you portray him as.

blinding

Tell me how wrote: »

Do you think it would be better for a country to let white supremacists decide who their President should be? And that the President would be a supporter of these people?

The White Supremacists in your head ! ! !

If there was dangerous White Supremacists in America they would be dealing with the Antifa / BLM terrorists ! ! !