brisan wrote: » And yes you were elitist when you said lower paid workers losing their jobs would not have an impact on the property market As I pointed out a worker on 30k a year losing their job takes 105k out of a potential mortgage 2 x 30k workers losing their jobs and their is a brand new 3 bed house in Portlaoise that has one less potential buyer
schmittel wrote: » So no maths mistakes, which is something I guess. If total number of ads on myhome is not a good number to measure, what number
I was replying to a post specifically asking about the supply in that short term. And all of the above is exactly why I did not say hey look demand has dropped twice as much as supply, or some other nonsense. I simply pointed out that those figures do not exactly scream tight supply, which they don’t.
Of course we may soon see this, or possibly we may soon see that, on the other hand we could see the other. And of course it would make more sense to compare 1 year from lockdown. But whenever anybody posts an opinion on here on what they think might happen over the next year, they’re scoffed at because they’re always saying wait and see, and apparently demand is sky high right now and we are in the midst of chronic undersupply, right now.
schmittel wrote: » Supply falling faster than demand. Or demand rising faster than supply. Either of those would probably do it. But developers dropping prices, and transaction volumes, mortgage approvals, mortgage drawdowns all falling in record numbers does not exactly scream tight supply to me. You want to talk about what has happened over the last decade, and Marius wants to talk about what will happen over the next year, but my post that you’ve both taken exception to was about what happened in Q2 2020!
schmittel wrote: » Given that there is only 2 of them it could be argued that supply is tight for homes on Highfield Road, Rathgar that are "completed to a spec more typical of grand contemporary designs in London or New York" But at €3.25m each it will be interesting to see what the demand is
Hubertj wrote: » A fcuking lift.
Marius34 wrote: » Total number of myhome adds it's good number to measure. It's bad to compare in terms transactions vs supply, in particular for short term.
Marius34 wrote: » Let say there is added monthly 1.000 new adds each month, where it get's sold 2.000 monthly. It's obviously there is more demands than supplies for that time, add wise.
Marius34 wrote: » Ok, but you chose number what suits you, without much interest which really growing faster supply or demand, as most in here. I don't have real answer to it, but I could provide a very different result, that would show strongly my right. In Same myhome report, states new listing fell by 85%: "Figure 3 illustrates new listings for sale on the MyHome website. During April and May, these fell to circa 85% of levels in 2019 but in recent weeks have picked up to levels just 20% below. "
Marius34 wrote: » It's great if anyone post their opinion, and wants to share or understand the market. Same as me I want to understand the market and where is it going.The problem than many picking up some numbers that best suit to them, and interpret in their own way, for the sake to prove their own believes.
schmittel wrote: » You want to talk about what has happened over the last decade, and Marius wants to talk about what will happen over the next year, but my post that you’ve both taken exception to was about what happened in Q2 2020!
Marius34 wrote: » no, that's not what I said, I explained in previous comment, that the numbers you provided is not suitable to compare with change in transactions for relatively short period.
Marius34 wrote: » Ok, I see you looking at total existing adds. Wouldn't think it's a good number to measure, in particular for relatively short term. It would make more sense to compare in at least 1 year from lockdown.
schmittel wrote: » I agree that's clearly nonsense because you are measuring new supply vs existing demand. My comments were about total supply compared to total demand. At the risk of repeating myself, that's clearly nonsense because you are measuring new supply vs existing demand. My comments were about total supply compared to total demand.
Genuine question - there is a lot of chat on here about undersupply and demand well in excess of existing supply/new supply etc etc - if you were to measure supply/demand trends over a meaningful period (1 year) - how would you do it?
Marius34 wrote: » Good question, very complex answer. This would require a complex estimate. From the expert estimates from what i read, it is estimated that we need around 30K-35K a year of new builds.
Marius34 wrote: » For one 1 year trends, there wouldn't be any great measure. But looking at the number of change of total add as supply, and number of transactions/mortgage approvals it could give some indication.
schmittel wrote: » Really? Apologies I must have misunderstood the following comment:
handlemaster wrote: » We have all forgotten about brexit , the pound is down in value bad for exports and good for imports. It hasn't gone away. Time.delay on property here is become more evident
schmittel wrote: » I think it is important to distinguish between the need for new supply of total housing stock and supply of property for sale both new and second hand. I am mostly interested in the supply for sale and how it effects market price discovery. Super. I'm glad we agree on something.
Marius34 wrote: » I said this, because if you take one year starting from 2019 Q3 - 2020 Q2, I guess you would come back saying that this presents mainly pre-covid times. So to get some kind of indication to estimate only covid times you would need to wait until 2021 Q1
schmittel wrote: » ...New demand in that time period fell off a cliff as well. Look at the mortgage approval numbers....
nerrad01 wrote: » So when could we expect to see the life supports withdrawn? It is only when this happens that we see the real state of the economy. Covid is here for at least another year before we return to any semblance of normality, no way we can continue to prop up so many businesses that are no longer viable?
schmittel wrote: » Or to put it another way: Marius wants to talk about what will happen over the next year
beauf wrote: » Some of that was because banks were backlogged (remote working etc) and also where people had approval but one person ended up on a Covid payment, they were thrown back in a reassessment process which took ages. End result it was all back logged. One couple I'm aware of this took 6 months only just re-approved. So its not demand in the traditional sense.
Marius34 wrote: » Wrong! Simply number of transaction over short time of lockdown, does not tell what is overall demands.
schmittel wrote: » Really? Apologies I must have misunderstood the following comment: Before I make a joke paraphrasing your "I guess there is some math mistakes", out of politeness I should double check: Is English your first language?
Marius34 wrote: » No, it's not my first language. I'm not sure what is not clear. I honestly will try to explain my best.
schmittel wrote: » No worries, that explains a lot of what we are disagreeing about
schmittel wrote: » Let me see if I understand this: Traditional demand in 2019 - Buyer gets mortgage approval and then told to reapply because of change in financial circumstances for whatever reason Net result one less buyer in the market, until they can get their mortgage approved again. Non traditional demand in 2020 - Buyer gets mortgage approval and then told to reapply because of change in financial circumstance due to covid payment Net result one less buyer in the market, until they can get their mortgage approved again. There does not seem to be an awful lot of difference between demand in the traditional sense - i.e a buyer who is willing and able to purchase a property and this non traditional demand. Neo-demand as it were
