beauf wrote: » What would scream tight supply to you, if a decade or more of a housing crisis doesn't, and falling supply.
Marius34 wrote: » Ok, I see you looking at total existing adds. Wouldn't think it's a good number to measure, in particular for relatively short term. It would make more sense to compare in at least 1 year from lockdown. Besides, overall number of add is moving further down, where as transaction numbers growing. Overall number of adds now is around 17.500, down from 22.500 1 year ago. So that's 22.2% decrease, we may see soon number of transaction and number of adds decreased by similar percent for annual comparison.
schmittel wrote: » Volume of transactions down 36% in Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019 vs Supply of properties down 15.9% Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019 Doesn't exactly scream tight supply.
schmittel wrote: » Page 18.
beauf wrote: » Is that not falling supply? From the report you linked to.
Housing supply also restricted by COVID-19 Some of our measures indicate that the COVID-19 outbreak has tightened housing supply. Figure 4 illustrates that the stock of properties listed for sale on MyHome fell to a fresh low of 18,480 in June, down 18% on the year. This reflects the sharp 64% decline in new listings for sale to 3,707 in Q2 2020, down 64% from the 10,224 recorded in Q2 2019. This shows the crucial summer trading period may see a tighter housing market if confidence is quickly restored, potentially supporting prices. Not surprisingly, the average time to sale agreed rose markedly in Q2 2020 to 5.3 months nationally, up from 4.7 months in Q1 2020. However, rather than indicating weak demand, this merely reflects that the housing market was effectively shut down through April and May. Our current forecast is for housing completions to equal 13,800 in 2020, well down from 21,200 in 2019. In Q1 2020, housing completions equalled 4,986 - up 17% on the year. However, given the shutdown of the construction sector in Q2 2020, completions will no doubt have fallen precipitously. This will add to a tighter supply of new housing for the market to absorb, again potentially supporting prices.
Marius34 wrote: » I look at the diagram from the link you posted to myhome report, it's doesn't seem that in Q2 it's only 15.9% decrease, it would be closer to 84.1%. I'm not sure where did you get 15.9% in your provided myhome report?
schmittel wrote: » Apologies, I am not sure get it. Can you spell it out for me?
Marius34 wrote: » I guess there is some math mistakes. Maybe new supply down by 100-15.9=84.1%?
beauf wrote: » That's still a lot of transactions and registrations. What does it say about supply though...
The Belly wrote: » <SNIP> easy tiger.
PHG wrote: » We have it already, its called D.I.R.T (deposit interest retention tax) and I think around 33%. That and the stamp duty on credit cards is appalling!
Sierra Oscar wrote: » Not a surprise, but the Federal Reserve has committed to keeping its interest rates in or around 0%.Bloomberg - Fed Signals Rates to Stay Near Zero for at Least Three Years
The Federal Reserve left interest rates near zero and signaled it would hold them there through at least 2023 to help the U.S. economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic.
HotDudeLife wrote: » Fair play to you, those sitting on cash will be in a once in a generation position within the next 1-2 years. The people giving you hassle here are just jealous or are property price drop deniers (quite a few of them), pay them no attention. You are in a fantastic place to be financially by the sounds of it.
neutral guy wrote: » I am bought nice land in nice place for nice house For crazy money When I was a stupid idiot in 2007. If I will not build house there then it will be land for my pension/kids education Learning lessons from last recession in 2008 I found that best thing when economy growing and gold are cheap buy gold and when economy goes down to recession sell gold and seat on bag of cash waiting for good price for property. Same as in 2011 ! So lessons been learned I started buy gold from 2013 and I sold it all completely in 11/2019 Now I am seating on bag of cash and waiting for good property prices Same as in 2010. I dont listen songs about supply/demand property will never be cheaper.I heard this songs in 2007. Lessons learned.
PHG wrote: » As for gold, I heard on a podcast today that less than 8% of Americans own any sort of gold. Would assume similar or less here, so what is the point in taxing it?
PHG wrote: » What about transaction costs of buying and selling? Why would you bother moving to a house with the exact same value? It is either an upgrade or a downgrade financially ny most peoples accounts. As for gold, I heard on a podcast today that less than 8% of Americans own any sort of gold. Would assume similar or less here, so what is the point in taxing it? Agree with point that best investment is yourself
neutral guy wrote: » . At the moment government know about huge people savings in banks and I pretty sure government lifting taxes,bringing new and cutting expenses to social welfare will force people use them savings ! I am absolutely sure that this gona happen ! Taxation on deposits will coming shortly.
neutral guy wrote: » Holders of gold will be taxed in future I think. But when you sell your property for half price and buy another for half price there is no difference. Some says there will be no supply during the recession I have no problem sell my parents house when they will pass away for half price during the recession because I will buy something different for half price also
The_Conductor wrote: » The banks aren't fooked' as you so eloquently put it. If anything- they are awash in liquidity- and while they'd love to lend it at prime rates to anyone they'd like to- thankfully, for both their sake and the sake of the taxpayer- they are restrained by regulations this time round- whereas in 2008-2009 (and in the decade preceding the last crash)- Ireland was renowned internationally for being the wild wild west with 'light touch' regulation of the sector. It is hard to find somewhere to put your money- and contrary to the suggestion to buy gold, I'd suggest that simply sitting on your money for at least the medium term- might be the better course of action- as when the dust settles, liquidity may be a valuable commodity. Returns are pitiful no matter where you look- however, inflation is also constrained (despite unprecedented liquidity creation)- and in the presence of constrained demand, there is no particular reason that inflation should feature as an issue.I'd suggest park your money somewhere where access to it has minimal constraints- and even if the return is pretty much nil, suck it up, and revisit what you'd like to do in 2-3 years time- but until then keep your assets as liquid as possible.
schmittel wrote: » Don't forget about the lads clowns who say prices are technically not dropping, they were just overpriced to begin with.
