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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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handlemaster

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Property prices down 0.5% in year to July

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-down-0-5-in-year-to-july-1.4356260

seems like a drop is happening...... down 1.3% in Dublin. would have been a bigger decrease if it wasn't for the small bit of pent up demand causing mini bidding wars

It will.be next year the real drop will kick it. I don't see how we can avoid a double digit drop. The government cannot continue to borrow and pay extra for the businesses and unemployed. Tax take will drop also, at a time when the government needs more tax to.pay for the borrowings going up.

[Deleted User]

Mic 1972 wrote: »

D7 isn't dropping, i check it daily
in the last 2-3 week some very expensive apartments have been added. Asking prices are through the roof in the area

have to disagree, I'm watching for 2 years, when I was living overseas.
prices slowed this time last year, asking prices are down slightly. There is a post-lockdown frenzy of buying at the moment, but I can't see that lasting much longer.
I am talking about houses in Dublin 7

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

We’ve seen nothing yet. Wait until the banking crisis starts.

What will cause the banks issues - is it just mortgage arrears? I thought all the rules around capitalization requirements are supposed to somewhat protect against shocks etc?

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

What will cause the banks issues - is it just mortgage arrears? I thought all the rules around capitalization requirements are supposed to somewhat protect against shocks etc?

When retail tenants cannot pay their rents and commercial landlords cannot service their mortgages
When developers have borrowed millions to build office blocks and cannot get tenants
When the new or part built hotels get mothballed and the debts on those properties cannot be serviced
Domestic mortgages will be the least of the banks problems

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/travel/ireland/100-new-hotels-for-dublin-is-that-too-many-or-too-few-1.4162692

PropQueries

London Firms Are Dumping Office Space as Workers Resist Return

“More than 1 million square feet (92,900 square meters) has become available for sublet since June, the equivalent of two Gherkin skyscrapers. The trend is so far limited to London: the city’s second-hand space surged by 21% in the period, compared with just a 1% increase for the rest of the U.K.”

“Banks including Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those companies currently trying to rent out excess space they no longer need.”

Link to article on Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/london-firms-are-dumping-office-space-as-workers-resist-return

pearcider

Hubertj wrote: »

What will cause the banks issues - is it just mortgage arrears? I thought all the rules around capitalization requirements are supposed to somewhat protect against shocks etc?

There are many problems with the system dating back decades but most obviously their loan books are going sour like in any recession. Unfortunately for them, they are already on their knees due to low interest rates since 2008.

If you pull up the market capitalisation of the GSIBs especially in Europe they have been wiped out in the past year. Societe General for example has a market of cap of 10billion with a loan book of 1.4 trillion. That says it all. The market has spoken and it’s all over bar the shouting. US banks slightly better but even they are under pressure now. Look at Citi today. Soon, the central banks will have to nationalise or recapitalise all these banks and print up the losses. Then the fun begins.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

London Firms Are Dumping Office Space as Workers Resist Return

“More than 1 million square feet (92,900 square meters) has become available for sublet since June, the equivalent of two Gherkin skyscrapers. The trend is so far limited to London: the city’s second-hand space surged by 21% in the period, compared with just a 1% increase for the rest of the U.K.”

“Banks including Credit Suisse Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc and Nomura Holdings Inc. are among those companies currently trying to rent out excess space they no longer need.”

Link to article on Bloomberg here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/london-firms-are-dumping-office-space-as-workers-resist-return

Ireland will be grand
Don't be worrying
Although Johnny Ronan might want to

MacronvFrugals

pearcider wrote: »

There are many problems with the system dating back decades but most obviously their loan books are going sour like in any recession. Unfortunately for them, they are already on their knees due to low interest rates since 2008.

If you pull up the market capitalisation of the GSIBs especially in Europe they have been wiped out in the past year. Societe General for example has a market of cap of 10billion with a loan book of 1.4 trillion. That says it all. The market has spoken and it’s all over bar the shouting. US banks slightly better but even they are under pressure now. Look at Citi today. Soon, the central banks will have to nationalise or recapitalise all these banks and print up the losses. Then the fun begins.

Taxpayers re-floating zombie banks again will turn millennials into communists lol

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Taxpayers re-floating zombie banks again will turn millennials into communists lol

I doubt Communists but a strong possibility they will turn into Sinn Feiners

SmokyMo

Hubertj wrote: »

What will cause the banks issues - is it just mortgage arrears? I thought all the rules around capitalization requirements are supposed to somewhat protect against shocks etc?

Doubt it will be a "banking crisis" as they re operating different now to pre 08. If the stakeholders were sure that property prices would collapse short term, then prices would reflect that belief and we would see massive drops already.

I think zombie companies will implode after subsidies stop, sending ripple effects. Retail property sector/ General retail will also fold completely. Governments will start defaulting.
Once the fed reserve stops propping up the stock market, it ll send off a chain reaction. Or financial system will start caving in. Depends what comes first.

But then nobody really knows what's gonna happen.

MacronvFrugals

brisan wrote: »

I doubt Communists but a strong possibility they will turn into Sinn Feiners

Yep was joking with the commie take but a shift leftwards none the less, how will official Ireland cope

Hubertj

pearcider wrote: »

There are many problems with the system dating back decades but most obviously their loan books are going sour like in any recession. Unfortunately for them, they are already on their knees due to low interest rates since 2008.

If you pull up the market capitalisation of the GSIBs especially in Europe they have been wiped out in the past year. Societe General for example has a market of cap of 10billion with a loan book of 1.4 trillion. That says it all. The market has spoken and it’s all over bar the shouting. US banks slightly better but even they are under pressure now. Look at Citi today. Soon, the central banks will have to nationalise or recapitalise all these banks and print up the losses. Then the fun begins.

Thank you. That’s a pretty bleak outlook. I best get to the ATM

beauf

SmokyMo wrote: »

Doubt it will be a "banking crisis" as they re operating different now to pre 08. If the stakeholders were sure that property prices would collapse short term, then prices would reflect that belief and we would see massive drops already.

I think zombie companies will implode after subsidies stop, sending ripple effects. Retail property sector/ General retail will also fold completely. Governments will start defaulting.
Once the fed reserve stops propping up the stock market, it ll send off a chain reaction. Or financial system will start caving in. Depends what comes first.

But then nobody really knows what's gonna happen.

Walking dead probably. Hope you'll all got your bunkers ready.

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

No way
lads on here saying property prices will stay stable in a major recession with mass unemployment and a lack of credit
I believe them

Don't forget about the lads who say prices are technically not dropping, they were just overpriced to begin with.

beauf

..or that lads who think they'll be giving out free property at some point, probably after lunch, just to get rid of the hassle.

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Yep was joking with the commie take but a shift leftwards none the less, how will official Ireland cope

Just put a double lock on the hall door and have more dinner parties than meals out

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

Thank you. That’s a pretty bleak outlook. I best get to the ATM

Its like in the crisis of 08
When the ATM said insufficient funds ,you were not sure if it applied to you or the bank

brisan

beauf wrote: »

..or that lads who think they'll be giving out free property at some point, probably after lunch, just to get rid of the hassle.

To be fair to NG he was out on his own on that one

Hubertj

So if the banks are foooked again where do we put our savings? Property is doomed, pensions are doomed, stocks are doomed?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

So if the banks are foooked again where do we put our savings? Property is doomed, pensions are doomed, stocks are doomed?

Gold

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

So if the banks are foooked again where do we put our savings? Property is doomed, pensions are doomed, stocks are doomed?

Looking like taxes and the black economy.

virginmediapls

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I was not talking about a 20 year old but rather people in there 20's and not all but a good few and I know a few.

A coffee once a day 5 days a weeks cost 750 euro
Buying a sambo 3 time a week 350 euro
Lunch out once a week 500 euro per year
Night out pub, club, ride(taxi) home 100 euro, once a week for a year 5K
Snort of cocaine once a week 5K/year
Meal out ever fortnight @ 25 euro costs 650 euro a year
Weekend away abroad cheap budget 250-300 euro, expensive one 500+ two per year 600 euro
Holiday abroad 500-1000 including spending money
3 day stag in Ireland no C 500 euro with C add another 2-300 euro, add another 3-500 if in eastern Europe
2-3 concerts 200 a pop
Soccer or Heinken Cup match 500-1K

I think this is the most divorced from reality I have ever seen a boards.ie post ever.

And that is really, really saying something.

Wow, covid-19 denial/flat-earth believing vibes off this.

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

There are many problems with the system dating back decades but most obviously their loan books are going sour like in any recession. Unfortunately for them, they are already on their knees due to low interest rates since 2008.

If you pull up the market capitalisation of the GSIBs especially in Europe they have been wiped out in the past year. Societe General for example has a market of cap of 10billion with a loan book of 1.4 trillion. That says it all. The market has spoken and it’s all over bar the shouting. US banks slightly better but even they are under pressure now. Look at Citi today. Soon, the central banks will have to nationalise or recapitalise all these banks and print up the losses. Then the fun begins.

AIB has a market cap of less than 3 bn , chump change in real terms when our economy is being dominated by US giants .

virginmediapls

brisan wrote: »

No way
lads on here saying property prices will stay stable in a major recession with mass unemployment and a lack of credit
I believe them

I honestly cant tell if this is sarcasm or not !!

:pac:

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

So if the banks are foooked again where do we put our savings? Property is doomed, pensions are doomed, stocks are doomed?

The Fed is going to build its asset book for the foreseeable future. The system is not going to collapse as it is rigged and central banks will give unlimited support. Get on the stocks of industries that look like they are completely gone like tourism and commercial landlords (ie REITs*).

*By referring to REITs my post has property market relevance.

The_Conductor

Hubertj wrote: »

So if the banks are foooked again where do we put our savings? Property is doomed, pensions are doomed, stocks are doomed?

The banks aren't fooked' as you so eloquently put it.
If anything- they are awash in liquidity- and while they'd love to lend it at prime rates to anyone they'd like to- thankfully, for both their sake and the sake of the taxpayer- they are restrained by regulations this time round- whereas in 2008-2009 (and in the decade preceding the last crash)- Ireland was renowned internationally for being the wild wild west with 'light touch' regulation of the sector.

It is hard to find somewhere to put your money- and contrary to the suggestion to buy gold, I'd suggest that simply sitting on your money for at least the medium term- might be the better course of action- as when the dust settles, liquidity may be a valuable commodity.

Returns are pitiful no matter where you look- however, inflation is also constrained (despite unprecedented liquidity creation)- and in the presence of constrained demand, there is no particular reason that inflation should feature as an issue.

I'd suggest park your money somewhere where access to it has minimal constraints- and even if the return is pretty much nil, suck it up, and revisit what you'd like to do in 2-3 years time- but until then keep your assets as liquid as possible.

hometruths

The_Conductor wrote: »

The banks aren't fooked' as you so eloquently put it.
If anything- they are awash in liquidity- and while they'd love to lend it at prime rates to anyone they'd like to- thankfully, for both their sake and the sake of the taxpayer- they are restrained by regulations this time round- whereas in 2008-2009 (and in the decade preceding the last crash)- Ireland was renowned internationally for being the wild wild west with 'light touch' regulation of the sector.

It is hard to find somewhere to put your money- and contrary to the suggestion to buy gold, I'd suggest that simply sitting on your money for at least the medium term- might be the better course of action- as when the dust settles, liquidity may be a valuable commodity.

Returns are pitiful no matter where you look- however, inflation is also constrained (despite unprecedented liquidity creation)- and in the presence of constrained demand, there is no particular reason that inflation should feature as an issue.

I'd suggest park your money somewhere where access to it has minimal constraints- and even if the return is pretty much nil, suck it up, and revisit what you'd like to do in 2-3 years time- but until then keep your assets as liquid as possible.

I'll admit gold is volatile, and probably not for widows and orphans, but there is nothing wrong with its liquidity.

With a 2-3 year time frame right now I'd far rather be in gold than cash.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I'll admit gold is volatile, and probably not for widows and orphans, but there is nothing wrong with its liquidity.

With a 2-3 year time frame right now I'd far rather be in gold than cash.

If I was younger, I would split my savings between Sterling and US Dollar or invest in a bolthole in both those countries. At least I'd have somewhere to start afresh once this all blows up.

The reason I have confidence in the USA and UK is that they're basically self-sustaining countries population wise and the best long term bet. I'd also be in favour of Eastern Europe, but many of them are attached to the EU and I've no idea where that is heading.

SmokyMo

One of the reason governments can successfully issue negative rate bonds is because institutional money is trying not lose money nevermind actually earning on interest.

Pelezico

SmokyMo wrote: »

One of the reason governments can successfully issue negative rate bonds is because institutional money is trying not lose money nevermind actually earning on interest.

Never mind making money. Mind the bit that you have.